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Thursday, 18 September, 2025

Archr News Update

{gb} BOE: VIEW CHANGE: JP Morgan push back next cut to February from November

* JP Morgan has pushed back its expectation of the next cut to February although notes that “a December cut is plausible”.
* JPM “see February as more likely assuming expected wage and price setting move favourably around the turn of the year.”
* It notes that the call change is due to “a reduction in dovish dissent, reduced growth concerns, and lingering inflation persistence suggest the evolving risk balance will persuade the MPC to wait longer before cutting again.”
* JP Morgan still sees the terminal rate at 3.50% with a further cut in April (it previously looked for 25bp cuts in November and February).
* We think there may be a few other sellside call changes this week despite the lack of surprises in the labour and CPI data releases and the in line MPC communications and vote split today, with analysts likely taking this opportunity to reassess their medium-term views.

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