CALMER VOICES: Poland has no conclusive evidence showing who fired the missile that caused an explosion in a village near the Ukrainian border, president Duda said, adding that Warsaw remained calm in the face of what he described as a “one-off” incident. US intelligence suggests that the rockets were knocked off course by Ukrainian defence systems during yesterdays missile barrages from Russia.

CONSUMER CREDIT: NY Fed survey shows households taking on debt at fastest pace in 15 years due to hefty increases in credit card usage and mortgage balances. The credit card balance collectively rose more than 15% from the same period in 2021, the largest annual jump in more than 20 years, according to the NY Fed. Total debt jumped by $351bn for the July-to-Sept period, the largest nominal quarterly increase since 2007, bringing the collective household owed to a fresh record $16.5 trillion. That’s an increase of 2.2% QoQ and 8.3% YoY.

HOUSE OF PAIN: US house prices could tumble as much as 20% in the wake of the surge in mortgage rates, according to Dallas Fed research. House prices, adjusted for inflation, soared during the pandemic by the most since the 1970s. Now a “pessimistic” scenario where prices now retreat by 15%-20% could subtract 0.5%-0.7% from inflation-adjusted consumer spending. Mortgage debt-service payments as a share of personal disposable income was forecast to top 6% by the end of 3Q22, from 3.9% in the previous three months.