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Tuesday, 18 October, 2022

BOE: Views since the new Chancellor:

BOE: Views since the new Chancellor:

* Barclays: Look for 75bp in November, 50bp in December to 3.50% by year-end.
* Berenberg: Still look for 100bp in November but now look for 50bp in December (from 75bp) to 3.75%. Look for 75bp cuts in H2-23 instead of 100bp to keep end-2023 Bank Rate at 3.00%.
* BNP: “Risks skewed towards a 75bp move” (rather than 100bp previously). Revise down terminal rate forecast to 4.50% from 5.00%.
* Deutsche Bank: Expect 100bp November hike with 4.75% terminal rate by Q1-23 with risks to the downside. (Had previously looked for 125bp in November).
* Goldman Sachs: 75bp hikes in November and December (previously 100bp) then
50bp in Feb23 and 25bp in Mar23 and May23 to 4.75% (from 5.00% previously).
* NatWest Markets: 75bp in November (previously 100bp) then 75bp in December, 50bp in Feb23 to 4.25% “with downside risks to Dec and/or Feb”.
* Nomura: Continue to look for 75bp in November, 75bp in December then 50bp in Feb23 and 25bp in Mar23 to 4.50%.
* UBS: Expect 75bp in November and December (with risk of 50bp in December). Look for 50bp hike in Feb23 and 25bp in Mar23 to 4.50%.

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