Tuesday, 13 May, 2025
BofA Fund Manager Survey for May:
– May sentiment improved from April’s extreme bear position.
– Recession fears peak, “soft-landing” again the most likely outcome (61% respondents, prior 37%) as “hard landing” abates (26% vs prior 49%)
– Cash levels fell to 4.5% (prior 4.8%)
Immediate take away is that consensus has shifted rapidly again and now basing decisions on greater stability and the ability of Trump’s team to land the economy without any issues. As a reminder 75% of the survey complete prior to the weekend trade progress – so sentiment was already improving (as asset prices would attest).
Given a lot of the rally from the lows has been high-beta, low quality chasing (High Retail Sentiment +29%, Financials Most Short +24%, Industrials Most Short +22%, Tech Most Short +21%, Unprofitable Tech +21% Discretionary Short +17.5%, High Beta Momentum Short +19% in past month) improving sentiment should broaden the rally in order to maintain broader upside – but also leaves the market more susceptible to growth / inflation / policy surprises.