Friday, 08 May, 2015

Cameron Poised for U.K. Majority as Scotland Turns Nationalist

(Bloomberg) — David Cameron is set to return as U.K. prime minister after steering his Conservatives to an unexpected majority, helped by a landslide for nationalists in Scotland at Labour’s expense. The pound jumped as projections of the final tally in the British general election indicated that the Conservatives had defied opinion polls to easily defeat Ed Miliband’s Labour Party. With counting ongoing, the BBC forecast the Tories to take 329 of Parliament’s 650 seats to Labour’s 234 seats, a result that would allow Cameron to ditch his Liberal Democrat coalition partner of the past five years and govern alone. The outcome of Thursday’s election, if confirmed, is a vindication of Cameron’s campaign on his record of producing an economic recovery and cutting a record budget deficit. It also raises the prospect of a referendum on whether Britain should remain in the European Union, a core Tory pledge even in the face of business concern, while the surge in support for the Scottish National Party renews questions over the integrity of the United Kingdom just eight months after Scots voted “No” to independence. “While Cameron has had a great night, I suspect his problems in some way have only just begun,” Tim Bale, professor of politics at Queen Mary University in London, said in an interview. “It’s a very tight majority which means he will have to make promises to people and do things to people to keep them on board on Europe.” Pound Surge U.K. stocks and bonds gained, and the pound surged the most since 2009 as the prospect of an unclear result and political instability as predicted in all opinion polls failed to materialize. Armed with a parliamentary majority, Cameron will be free to pursue his party’s policy platform including reductions in income tax and inheritance tax and the chance for many tenants to buy their homes, as well as 30 billion pounds ($46 billion) in fiscal consolidation, with cuts in welfare spending planned. Conservative minister Ian Duncan Smith said that Cameron remained “absolutely determined” to hold the EU referendum. The Conservatives received “compelling instructions from the British people to continue with the task in hand,” Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne said in a BBC Television interview. Political Futures With most seats declared, a clear picture emerged of Conservative gains, Labour losses and a near-total collapse in the Liberal Democrat vote to just eight seats, raising questions over the political future of Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg and Labour’s Miliband. The anti-EU U.K. Independence Party failed to make its planned breakthrough and had just one seat as of 9:30 a.m. in London. The SNP led by Nicola Sturgeon went from six seats to 56 of the 59 seats in Scotland, sweeping out all but one of Labour’s 41 lawmakers and eradicating the party’s half-century domination north of the border. “This has clearly been a very disappointing and difficult night for the Labour Party,” Miliband said after winning his parliamentary seat in Doncaster North, northern England. “I’m deeply sorry for what has happened.” High profile casualties included Labour’s finance spokesman Ed Balls, its foreign affairs spokesman and election strategist Douglas Alexander — beaten by a 20-year-old student — and Jim Murphy, leader of the Scottish Labour Party. Liberal Democrat casualties included Business Secretary Vince Cable and Energy Secretary Ed Davey, who both lost to Tories in London. In Scotland, Chief Secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander, Business minister Jo Swinson and former leader Charles Kennedy all lost. ‘One Nation’ Along with the surprise Conservative victory, the deepest political tremors were felt in Scotland, where the impact of the SNP’s triumph looks likely to result in fresh confrontation between Edinburgh and London as the nationalists seek to build support for another tilt at independence. “I want my party, and I hope the government I would like to lead, to reclaim the mantle of one nation, and one United Kingdom,” Cameron said after winning his own seat. “That’s how I hope to govern if I’m lucky enough to form a government in the coming days.” John Curtice, a Strathclyde University politics professor and polling expert, said that Cameron’s victory may lead to a fractious time ahead. “Don’t be surprised if in 12 to 18 months time, when the gilt has gone off the gingerbread, we discover that Cameron is having to deal with a rather rebellious set of backbenchers,” he said on the BBC. 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