Morgan Stanley:

Recommends switching to Feb./March ECB flattener from Oct./Dec. given recent communication from policymakers raises the risk of delays in the timing of the next cuts; the 2026 gap is pricing a tad more easing than the 2025, but the ECB posture is too sticky to give comfort that the market will price a cut this year, and risk-reward favors going a bit further out

Goldman Sachs:

Maintains year-end OAT-bund spread target at 70bps as near-term political risk settles, and spreads move back to the middle of the recent range, given the relatively high hurdle for either deficit or growth expectations to deteriorate versus already-low market expectations

Danske:

Recommends receiving Eur swaps close to the 3-year point and paying the usd equivalent; a received Eur position could be seen as an attractive way to hedge a paid position on the USD swap curve, given the sharp repricing of Fed expectations in recent months

BMO Capital Markets:

Recommends buying UK 5-year bonds outright and 30-year gilts on the curve, on asset swap as well as versus Treasuries and bunds given the BOE’s new QT plans will lower annual borrowing by an estimated £11b per year; key inputs in to OBR’s models are also lower than in March, while the Chancellor sounds encouraging on anti-inflation policy making, the pound is strong and US rates are lower