Wednesday, 30 June, 2021
Focus Events – Wed 30th June:
Focus Events – Wed 30th:
EU Session:
07:00 – UK: GDP
07:45 – Fra: CPI; PPI; Cons Spending
08:55 – Ger: Unemployment
10:00 – Eur: CPI
12:00 – UK: BoE Haldane (Super Hawk)
Supply Events:
10:00 – Ita: 6bn 5y,10y BTP (26k RX)
14:45 – UK: BoE Op 7-20y sector
US Session:
12:00 – US: MBA Mortgage Apps
13:00 – US: Fed Bostic (No Known Bias)
13:15 – US: ADP Employment
13:30 – Can: GDP; Ind Product Price
15:00 – US: Pending Home Sales
18:00 – US: Fed Barkin (Hawk)
Supply Events:
15:30 – US: Fed Op 7-10y TC Purchase
17:00 – Can: 5bn 10y GCAN
~ US pays $118.1bn ($7.9bn CPs, $110.2bn Rs)
The primary data points markets are focusing on during the EU session is for the second reading of UK quarterly GDP (exp -1.5%) to confirm the first reading at -1.5% QQ and to gauge whether EA inflation still has upward momentum. Energy base effects peaking should dent any momentum in the headline figure (exp 1.9% prev 2%) while analysts see risks skewed to the upside in the core reading (exp 0.9 % prev 1%) while expecting a slight moderation. We have seen these dynamics play out mid-May where front-end inflation forwards have come off more than the long-end.
ADP data remains very noisy, putting more emphasis on Friday’s NFP. Canadian GDP m/m (exp -0.8% prev 1.1%) continues to be dragged down by prolonged shutdowns and harsher restrictions in areas not shut down. Fed Barkin (voter) will end the day by pushing a more hawkish message that the Fed is on path to achieving its inflation goal while reaffirming the Feds more hawkish shift from a jobs recovery to include managing upside risks to inflation.
“It’s pretty clear to me we have had substantial further progress against our inflation goal…. I’m pretty optimistic about the labour market. … If the labour market opens as I suggested it might, then I think we’re going to get there in relatively short order” Fed Barkin during an event at the Rotary Club of Atlanta
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