LE PARI DE PARIS: France goes to the polls on round one voting on Sunday (30th June). National Rally still holds the biggest share of the expected vote, 35% in the latest polls. But the left coalition running at 29.5% is expected to keep a cohabitation of Macron presiding over a hung parliament. OAT/BUNDS spreads jumped to fresh highs yesterday afternoon dragging other EU yields, notably BTP spreads, after German tones of objection of any ECB intervention to stabilise French debt. Bundesbank has always been firm on the ECB capital key. The weekend’s election is likely to inject some short term volatility but really 7th July second round is where you see people voting with heads rather than hearts. Hung parliament actually seen as the best outcome, as a shift to either end of the barbell risks French deficit spiralling further.