“Today’s Autumn Budget saw the Chancellor notably increase current and investment spending, taxation, and borrowing. New policy measures added £48.8bn to departmental day-to-day spending by fiscal year (FY) 2029 (1.4% of FY2029 GDP). To meet its deficit target – which at present requires the current budget to move into balance by FY2029 – the government introduced tax increases worth £41.5bn in the final year of the forecast (although this falls to £31.9bn after considering the indirect effects of the change in employer National Insurance Contributions). A change in the debt rule to target public sector net financial liabilities (PSNFL) allowed the government to raise investment spending, with new policy measures adding £21.6bn to capital spending in FY2029. Overall, the updated fiscal numbers implied public sector net borrowing £28.4bn a year higher on average over the next five years than the plans set out at the Spring Budget, a larger increase than we had expected.”