– Trump approval rating sliding/disapproval increasing since start of the war. MAGA supporters and Republican allies warn against extended Middle East involvement, risking midterm election fallout.

– US average gasoline price hit above $3.88/gallon (highest since 2022)… US 12m inflation breakeven now 5.2% (was 2.25% in Jan, 3.3% in Feb).

– Stock mkt/wealth effect risk: every $1 stock mkt increase = +2.8c increase consumer spending. Has been driver of higher income consumption (upper K-leg); top 10% owns 88% of all stocks and equities = 25.5% household worth. S&P had gone nowhere since last Oct pre-Iran, now rolling. Wealth effect works both ways, US still 70% consumer driven (irrespective of how much heavy lifting certain consumers were doing)

… “very short excursion” now escalating quickly and morphing into potential of troops on the ground and becoming a classic “far away, forever war” unless Trump can find an offramp – quickly.