Event Period Survey Prior

CPI MoM Dec 0.3% —

Core CPI MoM Dec 0.3% —

CPI YoY Dec 2.7% 2.7%

Core CPI YoY Dec 2.7% 2.6%

CPI Index NSA Dec 324.267 324.122

Core CPI Index SA Dec 332.058 331.068

GS (Hatzius): We estimate a 0.35%increase in December core CPI (month-over-month SA), which would raise the year-over-year rate by 0.2pp to 2.8% on a rounded basis. Our forecast reflects an unwinding of the negative impact of delayed data collection on the price level in categories that typically experience steep discounting in late November (such as apparel: GS forecast +1.6%; airfares: +5%; and hotels: +3%) worth +0.10pp, an unwinding of the negative impact of missed data collection in October from metros where prices are only collected every other month and were due to be collected in October (impacting most categories outside of housing and autos) worth +0.07pp, and upward pressure from tariffs on categories that are particularly exposed (such as recreation) worth +0.07pp…We estimate a 0.37% rise in headline CPI, reflecting higher food (+0.55%) and energy (+0.2%) prices.

JPM (Feroli): We expect a significant increase in the December consumer price index as prices that were effectively held fixed for October following the federal government shutdown are reset. We forecast that these adjustments should have led to a 0.38% rise in headline CPI last month, and a 0.41%rise in the core (ex. food and energy) CPI. Even though seasonally adjusted gasoline prices likely fell 0.6% on the month to reflect a slide in the average price at the pump throughout December, we look for increases in both electricity and gas service prices to have pushed up the December energy CPI on net. Food CPI also should have risen modestly last month. If our forecast is realized, headline CPI should have remained at 2.7% over-year-ago while core CPI inflation should have firmed modestly to 2.8%oya in December.

MS (Gapen): We expect a firm print after the noise in Oct/Nov, 0.36%m/m Dec (vs. 0.08% avg Oct/Nov, 2.8% y/y Nov). A late November survey and more inflation in cities with bimonthly sampling add +11bp to core. Headline at 0.37% m/m, 2.7% y/y, NSA Index: 324.312.

Wells Fargo (Porcelli):The November CPI report came in artificially soft partly due to the prolonged government shutdown. These distortions should largely unwind in December. We expect headline CPI to increase 0.35% and core CPI to rise 0.36%. Even with this payback, the year over year rate of inflation should continue to ease, with headline and core CPI likely to come in at 2.7% and 2.8%, respectively. Under the hood, we expect core goods to rise sharply in December as more holiday-related product markdowns than usual were likely captured in the November survey. Meantime, primary shelter is poised to resume its pre-shutdown trend and is unlikely to bounce back until the spring.

NatWest (Cummins):Following a weak November report, we expect the CPI firmed by 0.4% in December. We expect food costs rose by 0.4% and energy prices increased by 1.4%. The core CPI is projected to advance by 0.4% (unrounded 0.357%) after a modest two-month change of 0.2% in November. The lack of data collection during the government shutdown in October called into effect the BLS’ “carry-forward imputation methodology” for that month, which along with the resumption of data collection only in mid-November explained much of the weakness in the November CPI report. With those data limitations fading, the December report will be a somewhat cleaner read.

– On a year/year basis, we expect both the total and core CPI edged up in December, after being “artificially” depressed in November due to the absence of October data. We expect the overall CPI inched up from 2.7%y/y in November to 2.8%y/y in December and the core rose to 2.8%y/y from 2.6%y/y. While base effects due to the absence of October 2025 data will keep the y/y rate subdued at least into Q2, we still expect firmer monthly readings to lift the y/y rate in Q1 (albeit not to the same extent that we had prior to the government shutdown).

BofA (Diaz/Gabriel):We expect the December CPI report to be much firmer than the November print, which was biased downward due to the use of carry-forward imputation for certain regions and the late start to the survey period. Headline and core CPI likely rose 0.4%m/m (2.7% y/y) and 0.3% m/m (2.7% y/y), respectively. Food, core goods and core services inflation should all pick up relative to November’s reported two-month change.

Wrightson (Crandall):We expect the December CPI to have at least a slight upward bias after the artificially depressed reading for November. As discussed in this week’s issue of the Money Market Observer, the government shutdown last fall created measurement complications that reduced the November index level, contributing to a decline in the year-over-year growth rate of the core CPI from 3.0% in September to 2.6% in November. Some of the distortions may linger in the YOY calculations until April, when an updated shelter-cost sample should correct for the distortion in that index resulting from the missing October update. However, other distortions may be reversed as early as this week’s report. We look for a 0.4%increase in the core CPI this month versus an average of 0.3% in the three months leading up to the shutdown.

– Food and energy prices may be slightly additive this month, but not by enough to change the rounding on the headline index, which would also rise by 0.4% in our forecast. The YOY increase in the core CPI would rebound to 2.8% this month versus 2.6% in November. The YOY increase in the overall CPI would also edge up to 2.8%, versus 2.7% in the prior report. Needless to say, the Fed will continue to find it challenging to interpret the price data while shutdown effects work their way through the numbers.

Daiwa (Werther):Forecast: +0.3% headline, +0.4%core…Available data suggest only a modest gain in the energy component in December, while food prices appear poised to remain on their current moderate upward trend (average monthly advance of 0.3 percent in the 12 months ending September 2025; note that October isn’t included due to the prior lapse in federal appropriations). In contrast to expected results for food and energy, we do see some chance for an upside surprise in the core. Core goods inflation, in our view, is likely to have not yet peaked in response to tariff pressure (despite the year-over-year dip in November: -0.1 percentage point to 1.4 percent), while airfares may snap back amid holiday travel –which would provide a boost to the core services area (note airfares plunged 6.6 percent in the November vis-à-vis September). With that said, we look for shelter components (rents and owners’ equivalent rent of residences) to register readings consistent with pre-pandemic trends.

Nomura (Amemiya):Core CPI inflation likely rebounded sharply to 0.451% m-o-m in December, after having softened in the prior months due to technical factors. Carry forward imputation applied to October CPI data likely led to positive payback in certain components through bi-monthly pricing practices.

– Delayed data collection in November seems to have brought forward seasonal price declines from December. This should lead to a rebound in month-on-month core CPI in December as seasonal adjustment factors catch up.

Deutsche Bank (Ryan):Our expectations are for these data to come in on the stronger side, unwinding some of the distortions induced by the government shutdown. Specifically, we are looking for a 0.36% gain in headline CPI which would keep the year-over-year rate roughly unchanged (2.75% vs. 2.74%). As to core, we expect a 0.35%gain (just barely rounding down to 0.3%), which would have the year[1]over-year rate increase by two-tenths (2.77% vs. 2.63%).

Santander (Stanley):After the downwardly-distorted November reading, I look for a snapback. While the consensus calls for 0.3% rises for the headline and core gauges, I expect 0.4%increases. Looking ahead, I would not be surprised to see a wave of tariff-related price hikes hitting in the first few months of 2026. In short, I look for the next few months’ worth of data on inflation to offer justification for the Fed to remain on hold.