GS (Hatzius): We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 60k in August. On the positive side, big data indicators indicated a sequentially firmer—albeit still soft—pace of private sector job growth. On the negative side, we expect unchanged government payrolls, reflecting a 20k decline in federal government payrolls and unchanged state and local government payrolls. Additionally, August payrolls have exhibited a consistent negative bias in initial prints over the last decade.

– We estimate that the unemployment rate edged up to 4.3% on a rounded basis (a low bar from an unrounded 4.248% in July), reflecting sequential easing in other measures of labor market slack, though see potential payback from a partial reversal of the spike in new entrant employment that boosted the unemployment rate in July. We estimate average hourly earnings rose 0.3% (month-over-month, seasonally adjusted), reflecting slightly positive calendar effects.

JPM (Feroli): We forecast that both overall and private payrolls rose by 75k in August. We assume that federal government payrolls continue to steadily decline: excluding a large 26k cut in May, they’ve fallen by an average of 12k per month since the start of the Trump administration, and we then expect this will be offset by growth in state and local employment. The administration has signalled that large additional federal layoffs are generally not needed in light of employment declines caused by attrition plus the ~150k employees who took deferred resignations and are set to roll off payrolls starting in October.

– The unemployment rate was 4.24% in July, so it will take only a small increase to have it round up to 4.3%. The Conference Board consumer confidence survey’s labor market differential kept worsening during August, falling from 11.0% to 9.7%. On the other hand, continuing jobless claims were roughly flat between the July and August household survey reference weeks. We also think a decline in unemployment among new labor market entrants could restrain any increase, which offers the possibility that the rate will remain at 4.2%.

MS (Gapen): Our forecasts of a 70k rise in payrolls and 80k rise in private payrolls are very similar to July payrolls: a slowing from earlier in the year, but not the sharp deceleration that June and May now show. The unemployment rate last month was 4.2% but right on the cusp of 4.3%. We think it sticks at 4.2%: breakevens have been falling; and we expect some further downward pressure on participation rates. Average hourly earnings rise on trend, and we expect no change in the workweek.

Wells Fargo (Quinlan): The labor market is in an increasingly delicate position. While the unemployment rate has trended sideways in recent months, a sharp slowing in payroll growth highlights the fragility of the job market’s current balance. Significant downward revisions and a softer-than-expected gain in July has left the three-month average pace of job growth at a meager 35K. We look for payroll growth to strengthen in August with a gain of 90K after some easing of policy uncertainty and four full weeks between the survey periods, but we suspect the rebound will prove temporary.

– Meanwhile, labor supply growth remains tepid amid stricter immigration enforcement and weakening confidence in job opportunities. The labor differential (i.e., the share of consumers who rate jobs as “plentiful” less “hard to get”) fell to a four-year low in August. A further drop in labor force participation would help hold the unemployment rate at 4.2%. But despite weak supply fundamentals, the volatility inherent to the household survey limits the scope for the participation rate to fall in August, and we look for the unemployment rate to round up to 4.3% as a result. If realized, the modest rise would leave the unemployment rate at the top of the range the FOMC considers consistent with its maximum employment goal.

HSBC (Das): Previous releases for nonfarm payrolls showed sharp downward revisions to both government and private sector data. Overall, we are seeing early signs of a slowdown in the US labour market. In August, we expect nonfarm payrolls to rise by 70k, after 73k in July. This will likely result in a slightly higher unemployment rate of 4.3%, which chimes with our expectation of a September policy rate cut. Financial markets will also be watching for any revisions to the two previous months. Average hourly earnings are likely to rise at a similar pace of 0.3% m-o-m in August, with the y-o-y rate falling to 3.7% from 3.9%.

Wrightson (Crandall): Our forecasts for Friday’s employment report are in line with the market consensus. We look for a 75K increase in nonfarm payrolls (close to last month’s preliminary figure) and a one-tick increase in the unemployment rate, from 4.2% to 4.3%. That would (by a very slight margin) be the highest U-3 reading since the autumn of 2021.

NatWest (Cummins): Following the disappointing July jobs report that included a moderate pace of job growth of 73,000 and a massive downward revision of 258,000 jobs to the prior two months, we expect nonfarm payrolls posted another modest gain of 65,000in August. We estimate private payrolls increased by 55,000 after an 83,000 gain in July. Our forecast is a touch below the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 80,000 (private: 75,000) and the range of estimates at this point vary between 0 and 110,000.

– The downward revisions to May and June in the July employment report pulled down the three-month moving average in nonfarm payroll growth to a mere 35,000- the lowest since June 2020. While a realization of our August payroll estimate will nudge up the three-month moving average to 51,000 it’d still be below the 87,000 jobs created per month in H1(25), indicating a cooling labor market. We also project the unemployment rate inched higher from 4.2% (unrounded level was 4.248%) in July to 4.3% in August.

SocGen (Baader): We, as the median forecast look for a soft reading in August (68k and 70k, respectively) but we fear statistical revisions may cloud the outlook.

– There has been much discussion about the supply side given a pronounced decline in the labour force recently. After an oversized gain in January on benchmark revisions (+2.2m), the labour force has trended lower, especially from March onward, declining by 733k. This has allowed the unemployment rate to remain effectively stable at 4.1/4.2% since February. And while we expect a modest rebound in the labour force in August (with low conviction), we also see a good chance that the household survey will show an improvement in employment. Hence, we expect the unemployment rate to remain at 4.2%, although given that it stood at 4.24% in July, the risks are admittedly clearly skewed towards an increase.

– Lastly, we expect average hourly earnings to maintain their recent solid pace of gains just under 4%, albeit around a rather volatile trend in the short term. Our (and median) forecast of a 0.3% mom gain implies a drop in the year-on-year rate from 3.9% to 3.7%, but that merely reflects a strong base effect from last year’s August rise of 0.5%.

DB (Ryan): We expect headline (100k forecast vs. 73k previously) and private (+100k vs. 83k) payrolls to improve a bit relative to their trailing three-month averages of 35k and 52k, respectively. If our forecasts prove close to the mark, the unemployment rate should remain steady at 4.2%, though there is risk that it rounds down to 4.1%. Regarding other details of the report, average hourly earnings (+0.3% vs. +0.3%) and hours worked (34.3hrs vs. 34.3hrs) should remain steady, with the upshot being that the year-over-year growth rate of our payroll proxy for nominal income would fall by roughly 40bps to 4.8% – a still healthy level supportive of consumer spending.

Jefferies (Simons):We are expecting a 65k increase in NFP, with a 70k increase in private payrolls and a 5k decrease in government payrolls (federal job cuts offsetting increases in state & local government jobs). Currently, these estimates sit below the consensus of +75k for both. We also have the unemployment rate ticking up to 4.3% (it was 4.249% in July, so it barely rounded down to 4.2%) as both the number of employed and the number of people looking for work decline in kind. Wage growth has been steady throughout the recent volatility in job growth, and we have no evidence to suggest that it will deviate from the recent trend of +0.3% m/m.

Nomura (Amemiya):Employment growth remained tepid in August. We expect headline NFP grew 85k as private payrolls growth slowed to 80k, while government employment rebounded modestly following a negative print in July. Focus would be on data revisions, given the large downward revisions in the July report. Historically, July has been revised modestly higher in the second estimate, while the June print has been revised lower. Overall, we think the revisions are unlikely to change the recent trajectory of monthly NFP growth.

– We expect the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3% from 4.2% in July. It is likely to move up gradually, driven by slower hiring rather than layoffs. Measures of hiring have trended down. The Conference Board labor differential dropped to its lowest level since February 2021. Our forecast for July JOLTS opening suggests the V-U ratio edged down to 1.02 from 1.06 previously. Layoffs have edged up but remain near historical lows. Average hourly earnings (AHE) growth likely remained sideways at 0.3% in August, boosted by a strong calendar effect in the month.

RBC:RBC Economics is expecting payroll growth of +64k(vs. BBG consensus of +75k) and the unemployment rate to tick up to 4.3% (in-line with consensus). Unemployment just barely avoided rounding up to 4.3% in July (4.248%), so the bar for it to rise in this release is quite low.

Lloyds (Lolay):Last month’s labour market report brought some unwelcome surprises. July payrolls growth surprise on the downside, and downward revisions meant the three-month employment growth rate was the weakest since the height of the pandemic. Other indicators are mixed, suggesting the July data may have overstated the slowdown. Nevertheless, we expect a modest payrolls rise of 105k and a further increase in the unemployment rate to 4.3%.

Santander (Stanley): I look for another tepid payroll reading for August, but my 95K projection puts me a little above consensus. And I feel safe in predicting that the revisions will not be as large as they were a month ago. I also would not be surprised to see the unemployment rate hold steady in August, in contrast to the consensus expectation of an uptick to 4.3%, and the wage figure could be up sharply. In short, the August employment report in its entirety may be less weak than generally expected.

Daiwa (Werther):Forecast +70k…Labor market conditions have softened noticeably in recent months, with average payroll growth of 35,000 in the past three months lagging the 171,000 monthly pace in 2024-H2 and 111,000 in the first quarter of 2025. Thus, downside risks to labor market conditions appear to have risen noticeably. Moreover, sluggish employment growth raises the possibility of the unemployment rate increasing 0.2 percentage point to 4.4 percent in the latest month after just rounding down to a 0.1 percentage point increase in July. Growth of average hourly earnings could remain close to the trailing twelve-month average of 0.3 percent (associated with a year-over-year increase of 3.7 percent).

TD (Munoz):We expect payrolls moderated to 25k in August, in line with a recent slowdown in hiring. We are forecasting weakness in the manufacturing, professional & business services, and federal government sectors. We also look for the UE rate to remain at 4.2%, reversing an upside surprise in new-entrants in July. Average hourly earnings (AHE) growth is likely to go sideways at 0.3% m/m.

Danske Bank:For the NFP-report, we expect 80k new jobs, unchanged unemployment rate at 4.2% and average hourly earnings growth of 0.3%.