Monday, 26 October, 2026
EU Rates Roundup Barclays: (strategists including Alessandro Di Spirito) **Recommends Sept. 2027-Dec. 2028 Euribor flattener given the limited amount of ECB rate cuts priced; the relatively flat structure of the strip once the terminal rate is reached offers good risk-reward even if it takes time to realize; ECB messaging continues to be for a slow but steady hiking cycle where the terminal rate continues to be pushed further out; alternatively, more hawkish premium can begin to embed […] Read More
Tuesday, 20 October, 2026
– BANK ON TAXES: John Healey rejects calls to increase capital gains tax for Oct’s budget amid concerns that doing so would damage economic growth and hinder investment; means that the biggest “revenue raiser” will be a tax raid on banks, to be used to help fund a targeted and temporary package of support on the cost of living. Healey will also reduce the govt’s fiscal headroom from £23bn to around £15bn. Read More
Monday, 19 October, 2026
{EU} Rates roundup : Strategists at Morgan Stanley like to position for fewer BOE interest-rate hikes than the Fed through interest-rate futures. Analysts at BMO and Citigroup favor the belly to underperform on the gilt curve. Morgan Stanley: (strategists including Fabio Bassanin) Recommends buying June 2027 SONIA versus selling June 2027 SOFR given the attractive spread and the US bank’s view that the UK front end will price a less hawkish rate-hike path; cross market view […] Read More
Thursday, 15 October, 2026
EARLY US PREs: as you would expect… AI hardware lower, software and shorts rallying. Gold outperforming. COREWEAVE -4.5% becoming the epicentre of AI credit/leverage concerns… NEBIUS -3.8%, IREN -3%, ORACLE -1.5% SPACEX -2%, INTEL -3.3%, NVIDA -2.4%, SANDISK -5%, MICRON -4%, BLOOM ENERGY -3.5% ROCKET LABS -8.5% on project delays. Gold names rallying: GOLD ROYALTY +4.5%, ANGLO ASHANTI +3.1% Read More
Wednesday, 14 October, 2026
{EU} we’ve traded here a couple of decent EBOR clips today… 0RH7 97.25/97.75 1×1.25 C SPRD – 0.5* 0RH7 96.00 P vs 96.635 20%d Archr paid flat 25,000x (+cs-p) … that is circa 0.5 tic better than the 40k lift yest which was paid flat with futs circa .61 also earlier ERM7 96.56/97.31 1×1.25 C SPRD vs 96.68 39%d we sold 14,000 at 25 which is in essence selling a meaty P to buy wingy […] Read More
Friday, 09 October, 2026
(Wall Street Journal) — Federal finances are stuck in a rut that alarms policymakers but hasn’t moved them to change course By Richard Rubin WASHINGTON — The U.S. budget deficit climbed to nearly $2 trillion in the fiscal year that ended Sept. 30, according to the Congressional Budget Office, deepening the federal government’s persistent red-ink trend. The $1.993 trillion deficit was 12% above the 2025 level in nominal dollars, reaching the highest level since 2021. […] Read More
Thursday, 08 October, 2026
AGENTIC MANAGERS: Goldman Sachs sees newest hires in finance will be overseeing AI agents immediately, rather than spending years moving up before managing people: “re-deploying these managers will be the “generational challenge for many, many segments,”… Follows comments from DNB, HSBC this week announcing planned layoffs to utilise AI efficiencies. The job displacement snowball is rolling. Read More
Thursday, 08 October, 2026
{US} Mark Cabana, co-head of global rates strategy at Bank of America Corp. Bank of America officially forecasts the 10-year yield at 5% by the end of the year, in line with its economists’ current predictions that the Fed will hike rates at its next two meetings in October and December, bringing the economy to an “equilibrium.” However, Cabana’s team has issued a set of trade recommendations based on the assumption that yields could keep […] Read More
Wednesday, 07 October, 2026
(Wall Street Journal) — France is considering boosting issuance of shorter-term debt, as investors grow more hesitant to lend to the debt-laden country for longer periods. In an interview, Finance Minister Roland Lescure said France would be “strategic” in issuing new debt at a time when demand from investors has been rattled by the country’s deepening financial woes. A monthslong selloff in French government bonds has accelerated in recent weeks, sending long-term borrowing costs toward […] Read More
Wednesday, 07 October, 2026
*LONDON COURT OF APPEAL QUASHES EURIBOR, LIBOR RIGGING VERDICTS *EX-BARCLAYS TRADERS HAVE RATE-RIGGING CONVICTIONS OVERTURNED Read More
