@realDonaldTrump Iran has just informed us that they are in a “State of Collapse.” They want us to “Open the Hormuz Strait,” as soon as possible, as they try to figure out their leadership situation (Which I believe they will be able to do!). Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP Read More
EARNINGS ARE GOOD, BUT DEMAND PULL IS HIGH: following on from earlier inflation comments from corporates – earnings so far show strong US and modest European beats on sales and EPS, but there is a risk of supply snag fears pulling demand forward. Flash PMIs (out yesty) point to this: – US manf PMI was 47-month high, driven by the largest new orders influx since May 2022 and rising input inventories at the fastest pace […] Read More
JPMorgan just created a product that lets clients bet against Google, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft & Oracle — simultaneously. This is being reported as a routine hedge. It is anything but. What JPMorgan actually built: a Credit Default Swap basket — essentially a single instrument that pays out if any of these 5 tech giants start struggling to repay their debt. Trades happen in $25M blocks, $5M per company. Why now? These 5 companies borrowed $121 […] Read More
SOUND OF THE TRUMP-PUT? – Trump approval rating sliding/disapproval increasing since start of the war. MAGA supporters and Republican allies warn against extended Middle East involvement, risking midterm election fallout. – US average gasoline price hit above $3.88/gallon (highest since 2022)… US 12m inflation breakeven now 5.2% (was 2.25% in Jan, 3.3% in Feb). – Stock mkt/wealth effect risk: every $1 stock mkt increase = +2.8c increase consumer spending. Has been driver of higher income […] Read More
*ECB’S KAZIMIR SAYS RATE HIKE ON IRAN MAY BE CLOSER THAN THOU… *KAZAKS: ECB INTEREST RATES ARE STILL APPROPRIATE: LETA *ECB GOVERNING COUNCIL MEMBER KAZIMIR COMMENTS IN INTERVIEW *KAZIMIR: ECB IS STILL IN A `GOOD PLACE’ *KAZIMIR: ECB WILL BE READY TO ACT IF NEEDED *ECB’S KAZIMIR: UPSIDE INFLATION RISKS CLEARLY DOMINATE *ECB’S KAZIMIR: NO REASON TO ACT AT NEXT MEETING *ECB’S KAZIMIR: RATE HIKE ON IRAN MAY BE CLOSER THAN THOUGHT *KAZIMIR: NOT TOO […] Read More
{us} US Jan Non-Farm Payrolls Preview WHISPER +40k GS (Hatzius): We estimate nonfarm payrolls increased 45k in January. On the negative side, we estimate that the birth-death model—which will be updated with this report, more details below—could contribute 30-50k fewer jobs to payroll growth (on a seasonally adjusted basis) than in recent months and big data indicators indicated a modest pace of private sector job growth. Additionally, we expect unchanged government payrolls—reflecting a 10k decline […] Read More
A group of banks led by Deutsche Bank AG has been unable to sell about $1.2 billion of loans backing the acquisition of a software provider due to investor fears surrounding disruption from artificial intelligence.”…. Story around 6pm yesterday. Adds to the narrative around the Private Equity/Credit names yesterday. EQT SS tanking on volume again this morning. Read More
COMMODITY CORNER: BCOM index +1.8% / Brent -0.4% / WTI -0.4% / US Nat Gas +0.9% / EU Nat Gas -3% / Copper +4.1% / Iron ore -0.8% / Steel -0.5% / Gold +4.9% / Silver +8.5% / Plat +3.7% / Bitcoin +0.3% / BBDXY -0.3% Read More
TRUMP on IRAN – hitting futures A massive Armada is heading to Iran. It is moving quickly, with great power, enthusiasm, and purpose. It is a larger fleet, headed by the great Aircraft Carrier Abraham Lincoln, than that sent to Venezuela. Like with Venezuela, it is, ready, willing, and able to rapidly fulfill its mission, with speed and violence, if necessary. Hopefully Iran will quickly “Come to the Table” and negotiate a fair and equitable […] Read More
{GB} The Times – Andrew Gwynne set to stand down as MP, clearing way for Andy Burnham The MP for Gorton & Denton in the North West was sacked as health minister over a WhatsApp group called Trigger Me Timbers https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/andrew-gwynne-mp-andy-burnham-tqz7z0n03?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqdPDdSXivi-srg01eaOPDjHgHQILUALa5k1l5pFCY8Ortt_PzloUeMMajPdIhM%3D&gaa_ts=69720ae6&gaa_sig=8L0_ThbngE4PtI0c0E4I1os7thBkQcqnZ7R5YIRF29rLj9qSvFbk8ChdnIH5_q8oDHJCw9wn1I71l5H763w3uA%3D%3D Read More
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