Tuesday, 24 September, 2024
BUND VOL firmer:
DEC 133.50 C lifted 2,000x NOV BUND 134.50^ 175 mid (+3.5 from open) DEC BUND 134.50^ 264 mid (+4.5 from open) Read More
Wednesday, 25 September, 2024
The European Central Bank should cut interest rates at its October
The European Central Bank should cut interest rates at its October meeting as the economic outlook has weakened, according to Johanna Kyrklund, the chief investment officer at Schroders. The ECB “should be cutting rates. They may have a different mandate to the Fed, less of a dual mandate, more focus on price stability, but I think there is room for maneuver here to cut rates in Europe. That would be our expectation,” Kyrklund told Bloomberg […] Read More
Wednesday, 25 September, 2024
MNI INTERVIEW: RBA To Start Easing With 50bp Bang – Economist
{au} MNI INTERVIEW: RBA To Start Easing With 50bp Bang – Economist MNI (SYDNEY) – The Reserve Bank of Australia will start its easing cycle in February with a 50-basis-point cut to the 4.35% cash rate followed by a further 25bp reduction before pausing to assess economic data, a leading independent economist has told MNI. Saul Eslake, an economist with both public and private sector experience, told MNI the Reserve could act aggressively to lower […] Read More
Thursday, 26 September, 2024
ECB doves to push for rate cut in Oct, hawks to dig in – sources
ECB doves to push for rate cut in Oct, hawks to dig in – sources By Francesco Canepa and Balazs Koranyi Reuters 26 Sep 2024 08:51:55 Weak PMI, sentiment strengthens rate cut calls Hawks likely to push for pause until Dec ECB cut rates this month amid slowing inflation FRANKFURT, Sept 26 (Reuters) – Policy doves at the European Central Bank are preparing to fight for an interest rate cut next month after a string […] Read More
Friday, 06 September, 2024
RBC’s Blake Gwinn
RBC’s Blake Gwinn. He said the addition of the Waller speech (post NFPs) means that they they now have a clear opening to realign the market pricing ahead of the blackout. He add, “this leans hawkish to us. Left to its own devices , we think the market would be quick to price in 50bp on even relatively benign NFP print. If the Fed was ready to accept this and cut 50bp, there would have […] Read More
Friday, 06 September, 2024
WSJ’s Timiraos: Jobs Report Will Sway Fed’s Decision on Size of Rate Cut
Jobs Report Will Sway Fed’s Decision on Size of Rate Cut Another crummy labor-market report could tee up a larger, half-point reduction, but decent hiring would keep the Fed on track for a quarter-point cut By Nick Timiraos Sept. 5, 2024 9:00 pm ET https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/august-jobs-report-fed-interest-rate-63fd80f0?mod=panda_wsj_author_alert The August employment report due for release Friday stands to play a larger-than-normal role in determining the size of a widely expected interest-rate cut later this […] Read More
Friday, 14 June, 2024
BACK TO LE FUTURE:
BACK TO LE FUTURE: it seems like an eternity ago since the days of checking in on Eurozone 10yr spreads as a key risk sentiment driver, but here we are again. Macron’s political gamble is having significant ramifications and bond vigilantes are telling him what they think. With NF’s polling lead focussing Le-Pennomics, OATs spreads are highest since 2017 vs Bunds and the CAC40 is experiencing a significant volatility bought. However, this may well play […] Read More
Thursday, 27 June, 2024
Multiple interest rate rises needed to quash inflation
Multiple interest rate rises needed to quash inflation John Kehoe – Economics editor https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/multiple-interest-rate-rises-needed-to-quash-inflation-20240627-p5jp62 Economists have warned there is a good chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia will need to raise interest rates multiple times to squash persistent inflation, jeopardising its hopes for a soft economic landing. After the annual inflation rate in May rose from 3.6 per cent to 4 per cent, JBWere chief investment officer Sally Auld said, “at best inflation is […] Read More
Thursday, 27 June, 2024
RBA – Hauser
Q&A: *HAUSER: IT WOULD BE BAD MISTAKE TO SET POLICY ON ONE NUMBER *HAUSER: MONTHLY INDICATOR IS ONLY PARTIAL DATA *HAUSER: WHOLE SERIES OF DATA COMING OUT BEFORE AUG.5-6 *HAUSER: LOT FOR US TO REFLECT ON AHEAD OF AUGUST MEETING *HAUSER: NO-ONE OTHER THAN CENTRAL BANK CAN ANCHOR INFLATION *HAUSER: STRONG JOBS A FACTOR IN STRONG SERVICES PRICES *HAUSER: POSSIBLE IT’S TAKING LONGER FOR POLICY TO FEED THROUGH *RBA DEPUTY GOVERNOR ANDREW HAUSER COMMENTS IN […] Read More
Friday, 28 June, 2024
LE PARI DE PARIS
LE PARI DE PARIS: France goes to the polls on round one voting on Sunday (30th June). National Rally still holds the biggest share of the expected vote, 35% in the latest polls. But the left coalition running at 29.5% is expected to keep a cohabitation of Macron presiding over a hung parliament. OAT/BUNDS spreads jumped to fresh highs yesterday afternoon dragging other EU yields, notably BTP spreads, after German tones of objection of any […] Read More
