Monday, 07 February, 2022
Fed and ECB still behind the inflation curve
FT – Fed and ECB still behind the inflation curve Central banks risk a pile-up of monetary policy tightening as inflation expectations become more embedded MOHAMED EL-ERIAN https://www.ft.com/content/79de1ec9-2249-4757-a744-10cea1afe5e5?desktop=true&segmentId=d8d3e364-5197-20eb-17cf-2437841d178a#myft:notification:instant-email:content In the past two weeks, a much brighter light has been shone on how and why the world’s most influential central banks are scrambling to regain control of the inflation narrative and contain further damage to their policy credibility. The key message […] Read More
Friday, 04 February, 2022
US JOBS DATA:
US JOBS DATA: – NFP +467k is a strong number after ADP headfake – Avg Hourly Earnings: moving higher on MoM and YoY basis – Unemployment increased more than expected but Under Employment (U6) edged lower. – Participation higher than expected. … Data enough to reinforce Fed hawkish bias, US rates @ 1.873% and Real Rates moving higher with a DXY rebound. ——————————————————————————-This message may contain confidential or privileged information. If you are notthe intended recipient, please advise us immediately and delete this message.The unauthorised use, disclosure, distribution and/or copying of this e-mail orany information it contains is prohibited.This information is not, and should not be construed as, a recommendation,solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or related financialproducts. This information does not constitute investment advice, does notconstitute a personal recommendation and has been prepared without regard tothe individual financial circumstances, needs or objectives of persons whoreceive it. Read More
Monday, 31 January, 2022
ECB – Summary of Analyst Views
Summary of Analyst Views: • Analysts are unanimous in expecting no change in monetary policy at the February meeting given the December announcement and the lack of fresh economic forecasts. • President Lagarde is expected to reaffirm the December announcement and push back against premature policy rate hikes. BNP Paribas • ECB policy is on autopilot now following the announcements at the December meeting with no new policy decisions expected this week. • Nonetheless, BNP […] Read More
Tuesday, 25 January, 2022
VOLATILITY:
VOLATILITY: Bespoke Investment Group finds only five prior instances since its records began when the Nasdaq Composite fell as much as 4% intraday and finished in positive territory: 28th Oct 1997 (NDX fell -3.5% in following 10days with a 500bps trading range. VIX was @ 24) 26th Oct 2000 (NDX fell -3.7% in following 10days with an 800bps trading range. VIX was @ 24) 15th July 2002 (NDX fell -5% in following 10days with a […] Read More
Monday, 24 January, 2022
FOMC – Bank Views
FOMC – Bank Views This Wednesday FOMC rate decision at 19.00GMT/14.00ET. Presser at 19.30GMT/14.30ET JPM: JPM economists expect the FOMC will use the January meeting statement to signal the high likelihood of a rate hike at the subsequent meeting in mid-March. They also look for the Fed to continue to taper down asset purchases at the pace determined at the December meeting. There is a risk (perhaps one-in-four) that the Fed completely ceases purchasing assets […] Read More
Monday, 24 January, 2022
Terry McCrann – The year will finally and really get underway with two events th
Australian CPI data and US Fed Reserve decision will shake up the economic outlook this week Australian inflation data and the outcome of the Fed Reserve policy meeting in the US have the potential to dramatically shake up the economic outlook this week. Terry McCrann January 24, 2022 – 8:30PM The year will finally and really get underway with two events that straddle Australia Day. Tuesday, a day early precisely because of Australia Day, we […] Read More
Sunday, 23 January, 2022
(BN) Goldman Sees Risk Fed Will Tighten at Every Meeting From March
Sent from Bloomberg Professional for iPhone ——————————————————————————-This message may contain confidential or privileged information. If you are notthe intended recipient, please advise us immediately and delete this message.The unauthorised use, disclosure, distribution and/or copying of this e-mail orany information it contains is prohibited.This information is not, and should not be construed as, a recommendation,solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or related financialproducts. This information does not constitute investment advice, does notconstitute a personal recommendation and has been prepared without regard tothe individual financial circumstances, needs or objectives of persons whoreceive it. Goldman Sees Risk Fed Will Tighten at Every Meeting From March2022-01-23 07:16:44.193 GMT By Simon Kennedy (Bloomberg) — Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists saidthey see a risk the Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policyat every policy meeting from March, a more aggressive approachthan the Wall Street bank currently anticipates. The Goldman Sachs economists led by Jan Hatzius said in aweekend report to clients that they currently expect interest-rate […] Read More
Thursday, 20 January, 2022
Terry McCrann All eyes on interest rates in 2022
{AU} Terry McCrann All eyes on interest rates in 2022 Outside of Covid the big talking point next year will be about whether interest rates go up, and if so how quickly and by how much? Ahead of its February meeting, the RBA will get the December quarter inflation numbers. They will be ‘interesting’. But it won’t get the next wages numbers until later in February ahead of its March meeting. That’s when we will […] Read More
Friday, 21 January, 2022
AFR: Why equities could fall sharply
AFR: Why equities could fall sharply […] Read More
