BOE: Views since the new Chancellor: * Barclays: Look for 75bp in November, 50bp in December to 3.50% by year-end. * Berenberg: Still look for 100bp in November but now look for 50bp in December (from 75bp) to 3.75%. Look for 75bp cuts in H2-23 instead of 100bp to keep end-2023 Bank Rate at 3.00%. * BNP: “Risks skewed towards a 75bp move” (rather than 100bp previously). Revise down terminal rate forecast to 4.50% from […] Read More
Ashley JoyeManaging Partner T +44 (0)20 7422 2975 M +44 (0)7796 308 391 E ashley.joye@archr.com 49 Carnaby Street,London, W1F 9PYUnited Kingdom ARCHR.COM Read More
Some European Central Bank officials considering whether to retroactively change their generous long-term lending rules for banks reckon doing so is legally feasible, according to people familiar with the matter. Inflation of 10% and rapidly rising interest rates have eroded the basis for the existing contracts, which were agreed on when price growth was sluggish and borrowing costs were negative, said the officials, who asked not to be identified as the debate is private. Legal […] Read More
(BN) ECB’s Hawks Target Early 2023 to Start Unwinding Balance Sheet Previous Next Send Actions Translate News: News Story 10/13/2022 21:28:03[BN] ECB’s Hawks Target Early 2023 to Start Unwinding Balance Sheet Officials favor balance-sheet shrinkage to run in background Framework decision on QT would mean they can refocus on rates By Jana Randow and William Horobin (Bloomberg) — Hawkish European Central Bank officials aim to start unwinding the institution’s €5.1 trillion ($4.9 trillion) asset hoard by […] Read More
(BN) Stocks Tumble After Hot Inflation Seals Jumbo Hike: Markets Wrap Read More
(New York Times) — Inflation rose rapidly in September and a key measure accelerated to the fastest pace since 1982, underlining the relentlessness of price increases. Fresh inflation data released Thursday showed that the consumer prices climbed far more quickly than expected and a key measure climbed to a fresh 40-year high, bad news for the Federal Reserve as it tries to bring the most rapid price increases in four decades back under control. Overall […] Read More
Governor Andrew Bailey put the Bank of England’s credibility on the line with a pledge to end emergency gilt purchases as scheduled on Friday, in the face of mounting market pressure to extend the program. Investors dumped UK assets after Bailey told pension funds they have just “three days left” to sort out their liquidity positions before the bond-buying will be halted. Sterling dropped below $1.10 for the first time since Sept. 29, prices for […] Read More
The Bank of England was forced to expand its emergency measures to tackle chaos in the bond market, adding inflation-linked debt to its purchases in an effort to stop “fire sale dynamics.” The announcement on Tuesday came on the heels of a severe selloff that saw UK inflation-linked bond yields surging by the most on record. “The beginning of this week has seen a further significant repricing of UK government debt,” the central bank said […] Read More
Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook said she supports the central bank’s policy-tightening path and that further interest-rate increases and a period of policy restriction will likely be needed to bring inflation down. “With inflation running well above our 2% longer-run goal, restoring price stability likely will require ongoing rate hikes and then keeping policy restrictive for some time until we are confident that inflation is firmly on the path toward our 2% goal,” Cook said […] Read More
Expected Index Extensions for end of September: {GB} Gilts: +0.23 {US} US Tsy: +0.08 {EU} EGBs: +0.04 {GB} Gilt index meets strong duration extension on the back of £35.9bn dropping the index and the expected syndication tap of the 30y Green Gilt for around £4bn {US} US extension is in line with average for a non-refunding month {EU} Low duration extension for EGBs which compares with 0.15y last year Read More
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