Tuesday, 06 September, 2022

Institute For Fiscal Studies on freezing the energy price: "

Institute For Fiscal Studies on freezing the energy price: ” terrible idea but may be unavoidable” Describing an energy bill freeze as “a terrible policy — but maybe one we can’t avoid”, IFX said: “The problems with it are twofold. It’s enormously expensive and a lot of money goes to people who don’t need it, and [secondly] if you’re holding prices constant what takes the strain is supply, so that increases the risk that you’ll […] Read More

Thursday, 18 August, 2022

Fed – Bank thoughts post Minutes:

  GS: The July FOMC minutes indicated that participants thought that “at some point” it would likely become appropriate to slow the pace of hiking while assessing the impact from tighter financial conditions, consistent with our forecast that the FOMC will slow the pace of hiking to 50bp in September and 25bp in November and December. The Fed staff’s forecast for economic growth was “noticeably weaker” than at the June meeting, while participants generally judged […] Read More

Wednesday, 10 August, 2022

War Lab puts risk of China/Taiwan conflict at 74% in 2020, which Ray Dal

  No images? Click here   War Lab puts risk of China/Taiwan conflictat 74% in 2020, which Ray Dalio’sresearch seeks to emulate Christopher Joye, portfolio manager, Coolabah Capital Investments Over at Livewire, I write that amidst news that the US has sensationally relocated one-quarter of its entire strategic B2 stealth bomber fleet to Australia due to the rising risks of war with China over Taiwan, it is worth revising our contrarian predictions on this subject.  […] Read More

Friday, 05 August, 2022

Some downside that’s been looking attractive:

{US}{US} Some downside that’s been looking attractive: we have bought this in from -4 to flat.. breakevens are wildly attractive, but if the 1×2 isn’t good for your risk profile this stands out: SFRH3 96.00/95.625/95.25 put fly vs 98.25 call ppr sells 10k @ 0.75 selling the call (96.425) so you are receiving .75 to own the fly closing out the downside risk and selling the 98.25call against it in SFH3 175 bp higher . […] Read More

Tuesday, 02 August, 2022

boe -street views

boe -street views -Barclays: Expect a 50bp hike at the August meeting with a 7-2 vote as two members prefer a 25b move. Main drivers for the shift to 50bp is are energy prices once again pushing inflation even higher than projected, higher volatility in macro variables has forced other central banks to shed the gradualist narrative, and economic data especially in the labour marker shows a more aggressive approach is needed. They now see […] Read More

Tuesday, 02 August, 2022

*Evans: Fed Shouldn’t Get Too Excited Over One Bad

*Evans: Fed Shouldn’t Get Too Excited Over One Bad Inflation Report –W *Evans: Focus Should Be on Where Policy Should Go Over Medium Term — *Evans: Reaching 3.25%-3.5% Rate Target by December Could Be Reasona *Evans: 50-Basis-Point Rate Rise in September Might Be Appropriate –W *Evans: Current Inflation Rates Unhealthy for Economy –WSJ *Evans: 75-Basis-Point Rate Rise Could Be OK if Inflation Doesn’t Improv *EVANS: SEES 3.75%-4% FUNDS RATE BY 2Q 2023 AS SUFFICIENTLY HIGH Read More

Thursday, 07 July, 2022

Steven Swinford

Steven Swinford @Steven_Swinford Breaking: Allies of the prime minister say he is going to resign this morning Read More

Wednesday, 29 June, 2022

Fed Is ‘Just at the Beginning’ of Raising US Rates, Mester Says

The US Federal Reserve is “just at the beginning” of raising interest rates to control inflation, the president of the institution’s Cleveland bank said. Loretta Mester said she wants to see the benchmark lending rate reach 3% to 3.5% this year and “a little bit above 4% next year” to rein in price pressures even if that tips the economy into a recession. “There are risks of recession,” Mester said in an interview on CNBC […] Read More