Focus Events – Wed 30th: EU Session: 07:00 – UK: GDP 07:45 – Fra: CPI; PPI; Cons Spending 08:55 – Ger: Unemployment 10:00 – Eur: CPI 12:00 – UK: BoE Haldane (Super Hawk) Supply Events: 10:00 – Ita: 6bn 5y,10y BTP (26k RX) 14:45 – UK: BoE Op 7-20y sector US Session: 12:00 – US: MBA Mortgage Apps 13:00 – US: Fed Bostic (No Known Bias) 13:15 – US: ADP Employment 13:30 – Can: GDP; […] Read More
BOE Street Views Barclays: Expects BoE to stay the course even while they acknowledge the better outcome relative to May forecasts. Expect unanimous vote on leaving rates unchanged and only Haldane again voting to reduce Gilt QE by £50bn. BoE to continue pushing the idea that economic slack has to be significantly reduced before policy can be tightened. The pandemic situation could lead to a note of uncertainty. BoA: Expects policy left unch at this […] Read More
EGB strat pieces round up Strategists at Barclays like buying Spanish 10-year bonds as a tactical trade, while peers at Santander prefer buying bonos against Portuguese debt. BNP favors buying 20-year French green bonds against swaps. Barclays: (strategists including Cagdas Aksu) Recommends tactically buying 10-year Spain after last week’s sell-off, given the favorable supply-demand backdrop ahead, light positioning and dovish ECB, while the hawkish Fed is now out of the way Santander: (strategists including Antonio […] Read More
AFR: Jobs figures not quite as strong as they seem […] Read More
https://plus.credit-suisse.com/r/V7rztG2AD-WEsDHH That about sums it up. 5 bps is too generous; it will upset the state of “singularity”. Like heat-seeking missiles, money market investors move hundreds of billions, making sharp, 90º turns hunting for even a basis point of yield at the zero bound – at 5 bps, money funds have an incentive to trade out of all their Treasury bills and park cash at the RRP facility. Bills yield less than 5 bps out […] Read More
Considerations for monetary policy The meat of any central bank minutes usually comes at the end, with the “Considerations for monetary policy” section. That is certainly true for the RBA minutes, so we will start with that section before moving back to see what else is noteworthy. And the main conclusion expressed in the latest policy-relevant section of these minutes was to push all of the important decisions back to the July meeting, where the […] Read More
The contrasting price action for copper/oil is accelerating this morning. Copper is making new monthly lows after edging through strong support levels while oil is making new monthly highs. This divergence has been a theme over the last few weeks causing breakevens to stagnate. The recent squeeze and subsequent rebalancing of positioning in combination with more attractive levels have strengthened the case to be short duration here, especially in light of last weeks CPI print. […] Read More
(BBO) Robots Are Making Us All Buy Overvalued Bonds: John Authers ——————————————————————————-This message may contain confidential or privileged information. If you are notthe intended recipient, please advise us immediately and delete this message.The unauthorised use, disclosure, distribution and/or copying of this e-mail orany information it contains is prohibited.This information is not, and should not be construed as, a recommendation,solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or related financialproducts. This information does not constitute investment advice, does notconstitute a personal recommendation and has been prepared without regard tothe individual financial circumstances, needs or objectives of persons whoreceive it. Robots Are Making Us All Buy Overvalued Bonds: John Authers2021-06-16 04:00:23.208 GMT By John Authers (Bloomberg Opinion) — To get John Authers' newsletterdelivered directly to your inbox, sign up here.Why Are BondYields Doing This??? Last week I raised the question of why bond yields managedto stage a significant decline around the highest inflationreading in decades. We all know the arguments that this istransitory, that the […] Read More
(BN) ECB Poised to Extend Bank Capital Relief by Nine Months ——————————————————————————-This message may contain confidential or privileged information. If you are notthe intended recipient, please advise us immediately and delete this message.The unauthorised use, disclosure, distribution and/or copying of this e-mail orany information it contains is prohibited.This information is not, and should not be construed as, a recommendation,solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or related financialproducts. This information does not constitute investment advice, does notconstitute a personal recommendation and has been prepared without regard tothe individual financial circumstances, needs or objectives of persons whoreceive it. ECB Poised to Extend Bank Capital Relief by Nine Months2021-06-16 08:27:34.534 GMT By Nicholas Comfort and Steven Arons (Bloomberg) — The European Central Bank is set to extend akey plank of its pandemic relief measures by nine months toensure lenders keep supplying credit to the economy, accordingto people familiar with the matter. The ECB’s supervisory board plans to allow lenders tocontinue to exclude […] Read More
TD not too bad on their US calls:::: so can have a read of this fits wiht your doewnside trades pout on over the last couple of sessions: TD Securities Recommend Short US 10y Treasuries * TD Securities issue new trade recommendation: Short US 10y Treasuries. * They cite an entry of 1.50%, targeting 1.70% with a stop-loss of 1.39%. * TD write that even though the last two jobs reports were weaker than consensus, […] Read More
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