– JPM brings forward its BoE hike path to Q1. – Citi have also brought their first hike to 15bp in Feb, 25bp in May – MS continue to expect liftoff only in August 2022– GS maintain their baseline expectation for the first hike in May 2022, but now see risks skewed in the direction of earlier lift-off.– Barclays think that BoE comment that ‘any future initial tightening of monetary policy should be implemented by […] Read More
FOREX-Yuan pressured as Evergrande risks grow; oil lifts commodity currencies – Reuters News Sentiment:Mostly negative 21-Sep-2021 07:04:56 To view this story on Refinitiv Workspace, click here By Kevin Buckland TOKYO, Sept 21 (Reuters) – The offshore yuan lingered near an almost one-month low on Tuesday while safe-haven currencies including the dollar benefited as investors sought shelter from a potential default by property developer China Evergrande. Commodity currencies gained amid a rally in crude oil […] Read More
FACTBOX-Five things to watch at Fed policy meeting this week – Reuters News Sentiment:Mostly negative 21-Sep-2021 11:00:00 To view this story on Refinitiv Workspace, click here By Ann Saphir Sept 21 (Reuters) – Federal Reserve policymakers begin a two-day meeting Tuesday to discuss the U.S. jobs and inflation outlook and craft a policy response that could edge the central bank closer to dialing down its support for the economy. Here are five things to look […] Read More
BUZZ-COMMENT-Risk of hawkish Fed surprise underpins USD – Reuters Sentiment:Mostly negative 21-Sep-2021 11:18:08 To view this story on Refinitiv Workspace, click here Sept 21 (Reuters) – Although risk aversion has abated for now, the continued safe-haven allure of the USD will limit it’s setbacks while markets remain cautious, as will fears of a hawkish surprise from the U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday. Investors still expect the Fed to signal their intention to taper […] Read More
House prices a persistent pressure on euro zone inflation, ECB study shows – Reuters News Sentiment:Mostly negative 21-Sep-2021 11:35:34 To view this story on Refinitiv Workspace, click here FRANKFURT, Sept 21 (Reuters) – House prices, now excluded from euro zone inflation data, would have persistently raised consumer prices in recent years, a study published by the European Central Bank showed on Tuesday, highlighting policymakers’ unease with the current indicator. Once corrected for housing […] Read More
In Brief: -No changes to QE/balance sheet policy or the target rate -No taper announcement but policy statement may be altered to indicate ensuing meetings are ‘live’ for a taper announcement -SEPs in focus with upward drift to core inflation forecast for 2021/2022, downgrade to 2021 GDP -Upward drift in Dots may indicate lift-off in 2022 but it seems a very close call; -2023 dot could also drift higher while inaugural 2024 dot […] Read More
CURVE GLOBAL:: As you may have heard curve is shutting down on feb So we are looking to switch ICE vs CURVE euribor, sonia and sterling If you have curve positions, give me a shout ——————————————————————————-This message may contain confidential or privileged information. If you are notthe intended recipient, please advise us immediately and delete this message.The unauthorised use, disclosure, distribution and/or copying of this e-mail orany information it contains is prohibited.This information is not, and should not be construed as, a recommendation,solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or related financialproducts. This information does not constitute investment advice, does notconstitute a personal recommendation and has been prepared without regard tothe individual financial circumstances, needs or objectives of persons whoreceive it. Read More
14:16:20 CHRIS JARVIS: CPI missing has cleared the road for yields to keep grinding lower into retail sales and OpEx later in the week. This was the view I held last week but may have jumped the gun a bit with the trade idea. CPI beating was flagged as the key risk to expressing a view where markets price in lower growth and inflation while risk wobbles. We are starting to see this risk be […] Read More
https://newsletters.briefs.bloomberg.com/document/yYld-gEGcPsjNZLzs3balA–_b7z4cnqb70dzj94rma The latest U.K. jobs data suggest the labor market was carrying significant momentum over the summer, but how employment and wages respond to the furlough scheme ending this month will be central to the timing of any move from the Bank of England; The European Central Bank is having a dampening effect on volatility (to the benefit of carry trades) for now, before the big decisions on asset purchases are made later this year; […] Read More
Markets may be overestimating Delta’s impact – ECB’s Schnabel – Reuters Sentiment:Mostly negative 15-Sep-2021 13:47:36 FRANKFURT, Sept 15 (Reuters) – Euro zone real interest rates are puzzlingly low, European Central Bank board member Isabel Schnabel said on Wednesday, arguing that investors may be overestimating the impact of the Delta variant of the coronavirus on the economy. “The market may be overestimating the risks to the global growth outlook from the spread of the more contagious […] Read More
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