Wednesday, 17 February, 2021
Interest Rate Gate-Keepers vs The Real World The interest rate gate-keepers: San Fran Fed President Mary Daly on Tuesday pushed back against critics warning low interest rates and government spending could overheat the U.S. economy and spark high inflation. “I am not thinking that we have unwanted inflation around the corner,” Daly said at a virtual event held by the University of San Francisco. “I don’t think that’s a risk we should think about […] Read More
Monday, 15 February, 2021
MNI INTERVIEW: BOE To Unwind QE Before Hike-NIESR Deputy By David Robinson The Bank of England looks set to reverse its previous strategy and indicate it would start unwinding quantitative easing before hiking Bank Rate, though no tightening is likely for some time yet, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research’s deputy director Hande Kucuk told MNI. Bank staff have been asked to reconsider the current tightening strategy of maintaining the stock […] Read More
Monday, 15 February, 2021
* The US Dollar model signal and positioning stay close to max bearish levels * CTAs pare long positions in JPY FX for fifth consecutive week. Model signal too has come down from max bullish levels * Specs are net neutral AUD FX despite max bullish model signal * CTAs have broadly been buying GBP FX futures since Nov’20, net long positioning (as % of OI) is close to a year high, but has been […] Read More
Tuesday, 16 February, 2021
And Europe is down but not out View in browser Tuesday February 16 2021 Subscriber Exclusive By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard and Jeremy Warner Surprise, surprise: Brexit Britain may beat Europe back to pre-pandemic GDP By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, World Economy Editor The UK economy did not suffer a bigger contraction than the eurozone last year after all. The narrative of a particularly British fiasco – believed by the London media, and the world – is […] Read More
Thursday, 11 February, 2021
The coronavirus variant first found in the British region of Kent is likely to sweep around the world and the battle with the virus is going to go on for at least a decade, the head of the UK’s genetic surveillance programme said. The Kent variant has “swept the country” and “it’s going to sweep the world, in all probability,” Sharon Peacock, director of the Covid-19 Genomics UK consortium, told the BBC. “Once we get […] Read More
Friday, 12 February, 2021
AFR: The RBA could increase its QE program at any time… […] Read More
Monday, 08 February, 2021
AFR: Aussie QE will not fuel asset price bubbles What makes the bubble-trouble talk ridiculous is that long-term Australian interest rates, and our dollar, have been increasing, not decreasing, in lock-step with moves around the world. The RBA’s mission with QE is simply to ensure Aussies are no worse off than our contemporaries overseas. In the counter-factual of no QE, the Aussie dollar would be trading with an 8-handle, smashing exporters and import-competing businesses, and […] Read More
Thursday, 04 February, 2021
GS-USTs: Refunding, thought on short term rates. Upward IOER adjustment? Treasury’s February refunding announcement was broadly consistent with our expectations in that it left nominal auction sizes unchanged, continued with previously announced gradual TIPS auction increases, and suggested that a new SOFR FRN remains under consideration but is not imminent. As noted previously, we remain of the view that current auction sizes are sufficient to fund a range of fiscal packages. The main area of […] Read More
Friday, 05 February, 2021
Since the RBA’s announcement that QE would be extended the AU 10-year bond yield is up 8-9bps – but the spread to the US is barely changed. While QE may cap a rise in yields the current pace of purchases will not stop the rise if the macro backdrop/risk sentiment continues to improve. Our bias is that the RBA does not shift its focus to the November 2024 bond but continues to target the April […] Read More
Friday, 05 February, 2021
The Times – How Bank of England dropped clues that tightening may be next big idea Philip Aldrick, Economics EditorFriday February 05 2021, 12.01am, The Times https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/how-bank-of-england-dropped-clues-that-tightening-may-be-next-big-idea-rhqndq9zt At first glance, nothing happened at this month’s Bank of England rate-setting meeting. On closer inspection, though, it may have been one of the most important monetary policy committee events in years. The big issue was not the base rate, which remained at 0.1 per cent or […] Read More
