Monday, 25 January, 2021
BoA- Libor update This Monday (25 January), will see ISDA’s IBOR Fallbacks Supplement and Protocols formally come into effect, with all new derivatives that reference the definitions adopting the fallbacks. Some have suggested that we may see these fallbacks triggered immediately (or almost immediately) thereafter, fixing Libor-Sonia spread adjustments. Although possible, BoA think this unlikely. The “permanent cessation trigger” event the market is waiting for is the IBA’s determination following the conclusion of its consultation […] Read More
Monday, 25 January, 2021
Commerzbank was out last Wednesday with a note on the ongoing LIBOR transition. They expect an official cessation announcement could come as soon as next week with ICE’s consultation round on discontinuing Libor set to end on Jan 25th. Such an announcement could either come from the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), who published Libor or the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), ICE’s regulator. Recall, the cessation announcement is critical for the calculation of ISDA fallbacks, i.e. substitute […] Read More
Tuesday, 26 January, 2021
Asutralia—- Clancy Of The Overflow I had written him a letter which I had, for want of betterKnowledge, sent to where I met him down the Lachlan, years ago,He was shearing when I knew him, so I sent the letter to him,Just `on spec’, addressed as follows, `Clancy, of The Overflow’. And an answer came directed in a writing unexpected,(And I think the same was written with a thumb-nail dipped in tar)‘Twas his shearing mate […] Read More
Tuesday, 19 January, 2021
In Brief: • No change in interest rates or QE expected this month • Markets are pricing just 4% chance of a 10bp cut this month and now only a 50% by Dec 2021 • Main focus will be on the press conference and Lagarde. In particular: o Insights of the rate of PEPP bond purchases o EUR currency strength and potential implications on the inflation outlook o Insights on ECB’s definition of ‘favourable financing […] Read More
Wednesday, 20 January, 2021
U.K. INSIGHT: 150 Billion Reasons Why the Recovery May Surprise By Dan Hanson (Economist) (Bloomberg Economics) — The U.K.’s economic recovery is on ice because of a resurgence in Covid-19 and measures to tackle it. But it’s not all doom and gloom. The health of household balance sheets should mean the economy rebounds quickly once enough people are vaccinated and restrictions lifted. Together with a faster than anticipated vaccine roll-out, a consumer spending boom is […] Read More
Tuesday, 19 January, 2021
SENTIMENT: some snippets from Jan BAML FMS: – cash levels at the lowest level since March 2013 – Allocation to stocks is at 2-year-high – allocation to stocks and commodities is at 10-year-high – record overweight in EM – record OW in small vs large cap stocks – Expectations for global EPS, inflation, higher bond yields at or close to record highs – U.K. remains “most unloved region” but the underweight was further reduced to net 15% […] Read More
Tuesday, 12 January, 2021
NATWEST CTA trend follower * The US Dollar model signal stays put at max bearish level. Speculative net short positioning (as % of OI) is at more than a decade record * Model signals for all currencies we track continue to be max bullish against the USD, with only signal for GBPUSD FX turning marginally lower * CTAs are net short AUD and MXN FX despite max bullish price action. Positioning for both these currencies […] Read More
Tuesday, 12 January, 2021
{GB} BOE’s Bailey BoE Gov. Bailey: BoE is not supporting the government to borrow or engaging in monetary financing. BoE Gov. Bailey: Government does benefit from BoE actions to keep borrowing rates down. BoE Gov. Bailey: Probably no longer the case that official unemployment will peak at 7-8% as forecast in November due to extended furlough scheme. BoE Gov. Bailey: True unemployment likely higher than the official estimate, probably around 6.5%. BoE Gov. Bailey: We […] Read More
Wednesday, 13 January, 2021
Retail Speculation Extremes just to get a little light hearted Last week ranked among the most active trading weeks of all time. a proxy for NYSE margin-account data used by JP Morgan indicates a potentially strong pickup in December versus previous months. 6 of the top 10 most active stocks yesterday were priced under $1 and combined for 2.6 billion shares or 18% of the entire stock market. Trading volumes on the broker-operated venues (favoured […] Read More
Wednesday, 13 January, 2021
Financial bubbles through history as compiled by Man Solutions ——————————————————————————-This message may contain confidential or privileged information. If you are notthe intended recipient, please advise us immediately and delete this message.The unauthorised use, disclosure, distribution and/or copying of this e-mail orany information it contains is prohibited.This information is not, and should not be construed as, a recommendation,solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or related financialproducts. This information does not constitute investment advice, does notconstitute a personal recommendation and has been prepared without regard tothe individual financial circumstances, needs or objectives of persons whoreceive it. Read More
