In Brief: • No change in interest rates or QE expected this month • Markets are pricing just 4% chance of a 10bp cut this month and now only a 50% by Dec 2021 • Main focus will be on the press conference and Lagarde. In particular: o Insights of the rate of PEPP bond purchases o EUR currency strength and potential implications on the inflation outlook o Insights on ECB’s definition of ‘favourable financing […] Read More
U.K. INSIGHT: 150 Billion Reasons Why the Recovery May Surprise By Dan Hanson (Economist) (Bloomberg Economics) — The U.K.’s economic recovery is on ice because of a resurgence in Covid-19 and measures to tackle it. But it’s not all doom and gloom. The health of household balance sheets should mean the economy rebounds quickly once enough people are vaccinated and restrictions lifted. Together with a faster than anticipated vaccine roll-out, a consumer spending boom is […] Read More
SENTIMENT: some snippets from Jan BAML FMS: – cash levels at the lowest level since March 2013 – Allocation to stocks is at 2-year-high – allocation to stocks and commodities is at 10-year-high – record overweight in EM – record OW in small vs large cap stocks – Expectations for global EPS, inflation, higher bond yields at or close to record highs – U.K. remains “most unloved region” but the underweight was further reduced to net 15% […] Read More
NATWEST CTA trend follower * The US Dollar model signal stays put at max bearish level. Speculative net short positioning (as % of OI) is at more than a decade record * Model signals for all currencies we track continue to be max bullish against the USD, with only signal for GBPUSD FX turning marginally lower * CTAs are net short AUD and MXN FX despite max bullish price action. Positioning for both these currencies […] Read More
{GB} BOE’s Bailey BoE Gov. Bailey: BoE is not supporting the government to borrow or engaging in monetary financing. BoE Gov. Bailey: Government does benefit from BoE actions to keep borrowing rates down. BoE Gov. Bailey: Probably no longer the case that official unemployment will peak at 7-8% as forecast in November due to extended furlough scheme. BoE Gov. Bailey: True unemployment likely higher than the official estimate, probably around 6.5%. BoE Gov. Bailey: We […] Read More
Retail Speculation Extremes just to get a little light hearted Last week ranked among the most active trading weeks of all time. a proxy for NYSE margin-account data used by JP Morgan indicates a potentially strong pickup in December versus previous months. 6 of the top 10 most active stocks yesterday were priced under $1 and combined for 2.6 billion shares or 18% of the entire stock market. Trading volumes on the broker-operated venues (favoured […] Read More
Financial bubbles through history as compiled by Man Solutions ——————————————————————————-This message may contain confidential or privileged information. If you are notthe intended recipient, please advise us immediately and delete this message.The unauthorised use, disclosure, distribution and/or copying of this e-mail orany information it contains is prohibited.This information is not, and should not be construed as, a recommendation,solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or related financialproducts. This information does not constitute investment advice, does notconstitute a personal recommendation and has been prepared without regard tothe individual financial circumstances, needs or objectives of persons whoreceive it. Read More
ArchrTech – Sad day today for the participants of the annual:: ***Archr Tech – Technical Analysis conference – Verbier*** Traditionally held annually in Verbier on Martin Luther King Weekend This years KeyNote speech by me on “Peaks and Troughs” will be binned, I’m assuming no one wants to hear it over ZOOM 😉 Of all the things that CovId-19 has ruined, this might be the hardest to take ArchrTech 2022 … Verbier… Next Stop – […] Read More
JP MORGAN (JPM) #’s due at midday – what to watch: CORE ESTIMATES: – headline 4Q eps est 2.62 on rev $28.6bn. – NII est $13.2bn – NIM est 1.84% – Invt Bank fees est $2.14bn – Equity est $1.86bn – FICC est $4.11bn – Credit Provisions $1.31bn – NPLs $12.69bn trading and cap mkts divisions expected to see continued strength and market is looking for last years loan loss provisions to continue to come […] Read More
Biden push for new stimulus checks runs into roadblock from key Democratic senator President-elect aims to move quickly on stimulus plan as economy sheds jobs, but already faces divisions within party President-elect Joe Biden speaks during an event at The Queen theater in Wilmington, Del., Thursday, Jan. 7, 2021, to announce key nominees for the Justice Department. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh) By Jeff Stein, Erica Werner and Mike DeBonis Jan. 8, 2021 at 5:26 p.m. GMT […] Read More
© Copyright Archr LLP 2020
