Friday, 02 October, 2020
AFR: Housing bears are becoming an extinct species No images? Click here AFR: Housing bears are becoming an extinct species In the AFR today I write that Aussie housing bears are quickly becoming an extinct species, as we had previously predicted. Read the full column here (or try this twitter link here). Full excerpt enclosed: In terrific news for the post-COVID-19 recovery, house prices have started climbing again across six of Australia’s eight capital cities and […] Read More
Wednesday, 23 September, 2020
Worth Having a look at {97<GO>} The attached chart shows the generic spread between NOV DEC TY BP VOL SPRD and NOV DEC BUND VOL SPRD over the last 5 years. Whilst both have widened over the last month TY has continues to outperform over the week with the spread at multi year highs. The risk events are all loaded in the December expiry (US election/ Fed) with no ECB in November the spread is […] Read More
Wednesday, 30 September, 2020
Perhaps everyone is still watching the school playground debate footage from last night. Polls and betting odds shifting a little further in Biden’s way, but it would be hard to point him out as the clear victor. Layering on more uncertainty as we still await clarity on any potential stimulus agreement from Washington. Even the Europeans are saying there are doubts over the €1.8trl recovery fund being delivered on time. On […] Read More
Monday, 21 September, 2020
AFR: RBA to accelerate recovery No images? Click here AFR: The price of doing more fiscal policy In the AFR I write that another week passes and yet another bank has upgraded their housing outlook in line with our heterodox March forecast for a zero to 5 per cent decline in the 6 months after the COVID-19 shock followed by 10 per cent to 20 per cent capital gains. Australia’s auction clearance rates over […] Read More
Monday, 21 September, 2020
From: Mark Taylor (MIRABAUD SECURITIES) <mtaylor339@bloomberg.net> Sent: 21 September 2020 10:46Subject: STOXX600 bloodbath on heavy volumes this morning STOXX600 bloodbath on heavy volumes this morning with overall turnover +48% vs the avg for this time of day. Volumes across Europe elevated with Spain hardest hit regionally on the biggest participation. At the sector level gig turnover running through the banks (SX7P) which is running 112% above avg. Travel (SXTP) running 92% above […] Read More
Friday, 18 September, 2020
BOE: JP Morgan view following the MPC meeting Looks for GBP50bln QE in Dec * JP Morgan now “pencils in” a GBP50bn QE extension for December. Previously JP Morgan had forecast no further easing but had stated that it would review this forecast after the September 17 meeting. * JP Morgan thinks that the MPC will “delay an extension until December to learn more about the policy, political and economic outlook before choosing to act. […] Read More
Friday, 18 September, 2020
LONDON (MNI) – Differences are appearing within the European Central Bank’s Governing Council over the future of its pandemic emergency purchase programme, several sources told MNI. Policymakers are debating whether to increase the PEPP’s existing EUR1.35 trillion envelope this year. Some also think that it is crucial that the programme, currently scheduled to end in June 2021, must continue to have a clear end date, as Central Bank of Malta Governor Mario Vella told MNI […] Read More
Thursday, 17 September, 2020
Eternal dovishness Nordea sums up the Fed meeting well; A 2.4% inflation regime is de facto in place Policy rates will remain ultra-low until 2023 A 100% reflation put is in place 2 dissidents from an all overall dovish Fed AIT means inflation can overshoot for the coming 5 years, but nobody really knows by how much. We got nothing more clear on this post the Fed yesterday. As they write: “….Fed will have to […] Read More
Wednesday, 16 September, 2020
Bank of America • BoA note that despite decent GDP data thus far, “headwinds to growth are building,…We see risks of more dovish minutes as a result” • BoA think that that more stimulus from the BoE and/or government is “inevitable” and notes that “both plausible Brexit scenarios (skinny deal and no deal) are worse than its base-case assumption. This should, in time, make it more dovish” • Continue to expect GBP100bln more QE and […] Read More
Wednesday, 09 September, 2020
In Brief: • Analysts unanimously expect no major policy measures to be announced in September • Markets pricing minimal chance of a cut in Sept but approx. 10bp of cuts over the next year • ECB expected to maintain a dovish tone, reiterating it is prepared to act if needed • Many analysts believe the ECB will take further steps eventually. Most see an expansion and extension of PEPP as the most likely measure […] Read More
