Monday, 29 April, 2019
BTP Longs At Extremes – BTPs stand out for their extreme long structural positioning in our latest update (as of April 26), with few changes seen elsewhere in futures positioning since April 12. – German futures have been relatively steady over the past month, with overall positioning unchanged. – Schatz positioning remains flat, with longs set last week. Bobl positioning remains long, with more longs set last week. – Bund and Buxl both remain flat, […] Read More
Monday, 29 April, 2019
A rate cut at next Tuesday’s Reserve Bank meeting is possible but remains most unlikely. I have to at least allow for the possibility after my unqualified prediction last week that there would not be a cut — against the all but entire economentariat rate-cut consensus — as my comment contained a significant error. MORTGAGE CUSTOMERS STUNG BY HIGH RATES CENTRAL BANK MAY NEED TO CUT BELOW 1PC I quoted the Financial Review as having […] Read More
Wednesday, 17 April, 2019
EU To Reveal Max Trade Retaliation List Versus US By David Thomas LONDON (MNI) – The EU Commission is poised to publish next Wednesday a list of counter tariffs to US moves earlier this week to impose USD 11 billion of tariffs on EU exports. An EU official said that the list would be a “max-list”, entailing that only a subset of what is on the list of U.S. goods that could potentially be subject […] Read More
Wednesday, 17 April, 2019
roll up and get your YM at these levels 53.5 iceberg seller there might not be many more of these to come we lift 3,000 off this price, we have had multi looks at 50/51 and you need some on the pad from here we were very vocal in the mid 60s to get short, going to be just as load at current levels to buy Read More
Wednesday, 17 April, 2019
{9N} UBS: Kiwi cuts in May and August {9N} We now expect the RBNZ to follow through with action… The surprise dovish shift by the RBNZ at the 27 March OCR review caused us to remove hikes (pencilled in to start in May next year) from our forecasts. We now take the next step and expect the RBNZ to actually follow-through with the guidance that ‘the more likely direction of our next OCR move is […] Read More
Wednesday, 17 April, 2019
AUS rates- Debelle headline today in Sydney the trigger for a repricing of the very front of the RBA strip. This use of the word “months” was construed as RBA having a more patient stance on future direction than anticipated. We also had some solid WPC consumer conf data which would also please the CB given recent focus on wealth effects. Flows so far have reflected more hawkish opinions with new selling seen in YM […] Read More
Wednesday, 17 April, 2019
Bank of America clients last week bought exchange-traded funds at the fast rate this year while shunning single stocks, extending their preference for passive investing for a fourth week. It’s a reversal from earlier this year, when stock picking was favored Overall, clients were net buyers of U.S. equities for the fourth time in the last five weeks, the most positive trend in flows since late January Institutional clients were net buyers for the first […] Read More
Wednesday, 17 April, 2019
The combination of the recently announced TLTRO-III and extension of the ECB’s forward interest rate guidance – committing to keeping policy rates at low levels for longer – has caused the Eonia forward curve to flatten. Having started to price in a modest 10bps hike a month ago, the market now expects no change in policy rates over the next 18 months. Even with policy rates in negative territory, the balance of risks is not […] Read More
Wednesday, 17 April, 2019
Barclays: • Expect no policy announcements but lively Q&A. • As highlighted in the March minutes, GC members have raised concerns about the impact of low rates on bank profitability, bank intermediation and financial stability. This was followed by comments from Chief Economist Peter Praet who indicated that the ECB was looking into options including deposit tiering. • Even if the ECB were to introduce tiering, this would not be until the summer at the […] Read More
Wednesday, 17 April, 2019
By Mark Cudmore (Bloomberg) — The WTI rise has just gone critical for the Treasuries market. Monday was the first time since November that WTI was up on a y/y basis. That will make the inflation impact far more real and see yields climb until WTI turns back negative y/y. In fact, charting WTI versus the same contract lagged by one year provides an exceptional guide to how U.S. yields will move. The last period […] Read More
