Wednesday, 20 January, 2016
See overnight IEA says Global oil markets could "drown in oversupply." I highlighted yesterday 15 extreme contrarian indicators normally associated with a painful squeeze in markets. This included RBS call that oil is headed to $16. I’m not tying to make a call on energy here but I still remember vividly the Economist front page article in 1999 "drowning in Oil" which absolutely bottom ticked the plunge in oil and an escalation in sentiment. I’ve attached […] Read More
Wednesday, 20 January, 2016
No Rally Safe in S&P 500 as Traders Forget About Buying the Dip 2016-01-20 05:00:01.2 GMT By Oliver Renick and Dani Burger (Bloomberg) — If it feels like rallies in U.S. stocks are getting shakier in 2016, they are. Case in point was Tuesday, when a 183-point gain in the Dow Jones Industrial Average evaporated and the gauge slid as much as 87 points before ending 28 points higher. In the 11 trading sessions since […] Read More
Wednesday, 13 January, 2016
Federal Reserve State Of Play – By Steve Beckner As 2016 got underway in earnest, Fed policymakers continued to echo the mantra of gradual interest rate "normalization" enunciated by the Federal Open Market Committee on Dec. 16. But some nascent doubts have begun to creep in about the wisdom of proceeding with a second rate hike in the near future amid global financial market turmoil, worries about the Chinese economy, Middle East tensions, collapsing oil […] Read More
Tuesday, 12 January, 2016
RBS tells investors: ‘Sell everything’ The Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) has advised clients to brace for a "cataclysmic year" and a global deflationary crisis, warning that the major stock markets could fall by a fifth and oil may reach $US16 a barrel. The bank’s credit team said markets are flashing the same stress alerts as they did before the Lehman crisis in 2008. "Sell everything except high quality bonds. This is about return of […] Read More
Monday, 07 December, 2015
By Michael Heath (Bloomberg) — Australians, already the world’s biggest gamblers, are hitting a new record in 2015 as the equivalent of A$1,000 ($734) is lost by every man, woman and child Down Under. In the 12 months through September, Australians frittered away A$24.1 billion on gambling. That’s an increase of 6 percent from a year earlier, more than double the expansion of the overall economy, which grew a below-average 2.5 percent over the same period. […] Read More
Thursday, 03 December, 2015
RBS- US Strategy Focus I Swap Spreads The precipitous decline in swap spreads that has occurred since August has been truly astounding. We blew through post-crisis lows more than a month ago with the 5-year spread crossing into negative territory for the first time ever. Each time that we have started to hear chatter about the momentum potentially beginning to wane, we seem to get another leg down. This has made trying to call the […] Read More
Wednesday, 02 December, 2015
Analysis: R* Widely Cited Reason for Slow-walking Rate Hikes By Steven K. Beckner NEW YORK(MNI) – In the annals of monetary policymaking, economic precepts and catchphrases come and go, some seemingly having more staying power than others, but few have equaled the current popularity of "r*". R* is not really new, of course. It’s just shorthand for a concept that’s been around a long time — the "natural rate of interest," otherwise known as the […] Read More
Saturday, 14 November, 2015
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-34814203 Archr LLP is Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA reference 617163). Archr LLP is not covered by the Financial Services Compensation Scheme (FSCS). Archr is registered in England and Wales No. OC371018. Registered office 115B Drysdale Street, Hoxton, London, United Kingdom, N1 6ND This message may contain confidential or privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient, please advise us immediately and delete this message. The unauthorised use, disclosure, distribution […] Read More
Friday, 06 November, 2015
Watch out for interest rate risks {www.afr.com/news/economy/interest-rate-risks-rise-20151105-gks9ym} While the Reserve Bank of Australia was not inclined to cut rates in November, it certainly looks like Federal Reserve chairwoman Janet Yellen will find the courage to lift her cash rate off its near-zero level on December 16, some seven years after the global financial crisis first hit. Since RBA governor Glenn Stevens regularly communicates with Yellen, he may have been privy to her thinking on this […] Read More
Thursday, 05 November, 2015
(Bloomberg) — Mark Carney signaled the U.K. needs record- low interest rates for a while longer as China drags on the world economy. “Monetary policy must continue to balance two fundamental forces -– domestic strength and foreign weakness,” the Bank of England governor said at a press conference in London on Thursday. “The outlook for global growth has weakened since August. Many emerging-market economies have slowed markedly this year, and the committee has downgraded its […] Read More
