EARLY US PREs: as you would expect… AI hardware lower, software and shorts rallying. Gold outperforming. COREWEAVE -4.5% becoming the epicentre of AI credit/leverage concerns… NEBIUS -3.8%, IREN -3%, ORACLE -1.5% SPACEX -2%, INTEL -3.3%, NVIDA -2.4%, SANDISK -5%, MICRON -4%, BLOOM ENERGY -3.5% ROCKET LABS -8.5% on project delays. Gold names rallying: GOLD ROYALTY +4.5%, ANGLO ASHANTI +3.1% Read More
{EU} we’ve traded here a couple of decent EBOR clips today… 0RH7 97.25/97.75 1×1.25 C SPRD – 0.5* 0RH7 96.00 P vs 96.635 20%d Archr paid flat 25,000x (+cs-p) … that is circa 0.5 tic better than the 40k lift yest which was paid flat with futs circa .61 also earlier ERM7 96.56/97.31 1×1.25 C SPRD vs 96.68 39%d we sold 14,000 at 25 which is in essence selling a meaty P to buy wingy […] Read More
(Wall Street Journal) — Federal finances are stuck in a rut that alarms policymakers but hasn’t moved them to change course By Richard Rubin WASHINGTON — The U.S. budget deficit climbed to nearly $2 trillion in the fiscal year that ended Sept. 30, according to the Congressional Budget Office, deepening the federal government’s persistent red-ink trend. The $1.993 trillion deficit was 12% above the 2025 level in nominal dollars, reaching the highest level since 2021. […] Read More
AGENTIC MANAGERS: Goldman Sachs sees newest hires in finance will be overseeing AI agents immediately, rather than spending years moving up before managing people: “re-deploying these managers will be the “generational challenge for many, many segments,”… Follows comments from DNB, HSBC this week announcing planned layoffs to utilise AI efficiencies. The job displacement snowball is rolling. Read More
{US} Mark Cabana, co-head of global rates strategy at Bank of America Corp. Bank of America officially forecasts the 10-year yield at 5% by the end of the year, in line with its economists’ current predictions that the Fed will hike rates at its next two meetings in October and December, bringing the economy to an “equilibrium.” However, Cabana’s team has issued a set of trade recommendations based on the assumption that yields could keep […] Read More
(Wall Street Journal) — France is considering boosting issuance of shorter-term debt, as investors grow more hesitant to lend to the debt-laden country for longer periods. In an interview, Finance Minister Roland Lescure said France would be “strategic” in issuing new debt at a time when demand from investors has been rattled by the country’s deepening financial woes. A monthslong selloff in French government bonds has accelerated in recent weeks, sending long-term borrowing costs toward […] Read More
*LONDON COURT OF APPEAL QUASHES EURIBOR, LIBOR RIGGING VERDICTS *EX-BARCLAYS TRADERS HAVE RATE-RIGGING CONVICTIONS OVERTURNED Read More
OIL: Fars Reports Fire Erupts Over Saudi Arabia’s Largest Oil Field Unverified reports from Fars note “Fire Erupts Over Saudi Arabia’s Largest Oil Field” Read More
EU BONDS – FT out with interesting piece discussing the merits of the ECB ending its QT programme (written by former ECB board member and former Chair of SocGen) – Long-term government-bond yields have risen sharply across advanced economies, with higher yields feeding further market stress and pushing yields even higher. – In Europe, echoes of the 2011-12 sovereign-debt crisis are emerging in the renewed widening of core-versus-peripheral spreads. – France is being treated by […] Read More
RBA Sell-Side Analyst Views — September 2026 Decision Decision: 25bp hike to 4.60% (unanimous) Summary of November calls: ANZ and Westpac expect a follow-up hike as the base case; CBA, CIBC, J.P. Morgan and TD Securities expect a hold, with CIBC and TD flagging December/early 2027 as the more likely next move; ING sees one further 25bp hike in Q4 26; Goldman Sachs sees a longer hold with tightening as a risk rather than the […] Read More
© Copyright Archr LLP
