Wednesday, 30 September, 2026

RBA Sell-Side Analyst Views — September 2026 Decision

RBA Sell-Side Analyst Views — September 2026 Decision

Decision: 25bp hike to 4.60% (unanimous)

Summary of November calls: ANZ and Westpac expect a follow-up hike as the base case; CBA, CIBC, J.P. Morgan and TD Securities expect a hold, with CIBC and TD flagging December/early 2027 as the more likely next move; ING sees one further 25bp hike in Q4 26; Goldman Sachs sees a longer hold with tightening as a risk rather than the base case.

ANZ

As was widely expected, the RBA’s Monetary Policy Board (MPB) increased the cash rate by 25bp to 4.60%. The decision was unanimous, whereas we had expected there to have been a split vote. That unanimous decision, and the hawkish tone to the post-meeting statement, have us continuing to expect a follow-up rate hike in November. The opening statement in the press conference was also hawkish, although some of the responses to initial questions appear to have been interpreted by the market as being on the dovish side. The final paragraphs of the statement left the door open to higher rates.

  • In the press conference the Governor described the labour market as “a little tight” and repeated that the Board would increase interest rates if necessary to bring inflation down.

  • In early questions the Governor also noted the tightness in financial conditions with a suggestion it might be enough to bring inflation back down to the target — which could be read as a little more dovish than the opening comments.

CBA

The RBA hiked the cash rate by 25bps today to 4.6%, its highest level in 15 years. The decision was unanimous. Inflation is too high because of both domestic capacity pressures, the war in the Middle East and the AI boom. Inflation has now been above the mid-point of the target for almost five years.

  • The economy is showing clear signs of slowing and the labour market is loosening, but not fast enough to get inflation back to target in a reasonable time frame, especially given renewed pressure on oil prices. Inflation is the Board’s top priority, but it is cognisant of the long lags in monetary policy.

  • Looking ahead, we expect the Board to remain on hold in November. Though it will be a live meeting, and trimmed mean inflation at or above 1.0% in Q3 26 may trigger an additional hike. We continue to expect two rate cuts in late 2027.

  • Incoming data on inflation will be the clear and primary focus of the Board. The path of the Middle East conflict will also be crucial. The labour market and household spending will also be important.

CIBC

The RBA raised the cash rate by 25 bps to 4.60%, as widely expected, taking cumulative tightening in 2026 to 100 bps. In our view, the statement was mildly hawkish, with the main message focusing on short-term upside price risks.

  • The statement noted “upside risks to inflation are materialising… recent data suggest that growth and inflation in Australia have been higher than expected. Higher fuel prices have partially been passed through to prices of other goods and services.”

  • The conclusion of the statement signalled a data-dependent but hawkish stance, with the RBA Board warning it was willing to “increase the cash rate target further if needed.” The final paragraph also reiterated that the RBA “will be attentive to the data and the evolving assessment of the outlook and risks.”

  • In our view, that affirms that another rate hike is likely, but the timing was uncertain and data-dependent. We continue to expect a hold on November 3rd, followed by another hike on December 8th.

Goldman Sachs

In her post-decision press conference, Governor Bullock framed today’s rate hike against the backdrop of upside risks to inflation from (i) rising fuel prices, (ii) the AI boom, and (iii) capacity pressures. Although an alternative decision to hold the policy rate unchanged was considered today, Governor Bullock placed little focus on arguments which might have supported such a decision (for example, the weakening housing market).

  • Governor Bullock instead noted that the focus was on whether the RBA “have done enough on interest rates to” contain “the inflation numbers another six months out,” and several times noted the 4 hikes to date and the long lags of monetary policy.

  • We view the press conference as incrementally less hawkish than the brief statement attending today’s decision. Our base case is that the RBA holds policy for an extended period until a gradual easing cycle commences from 2H2027. However, we continue to view further policy tightening as a material risk — including as soon as November should inflation surprise to the upside.

ING

The Reserve Bank of Australia has delivered a hawkish 25bp hike and signalled little comfort with the inflation outlook, stressing that demand continues to outstrip supply. The message was clear: policy will stay restrictive for longer, and additional tightening cannot be ruled out.

  • The RBA remains firmly focused on returning inflation to target and appears willing to tolerate some additional labour market softening to achieve that objective. The combination of a unanimous decision, hawkish messaging, and continued concern over excess demand suggests the tightening cycle may not be over yet. We now expect one final 25bp hike in 4Q26, though a sharp decline in oil prices could see the Bank stay on hold instead.

  • Governor Bullock reiterated that inflation has not yet made sufficient progress back towards target and noted that the full impact of past rate increases may take up to 12 months to flow through the economy. As such, the Bank is likely to look through any single data point and seek greater confidence that underlying inflation is on a sustained downward path before considering a pause.

J.P. Morgan

The RBA hiked 25bp today, as broadly forecasted and well-priced after overt guidance by senior officials in recent weeks. In the board’s view, “some of the upside risks (are) materializing,” due to “further disruptions to global oil supply,” which is being “partially … passed through.”

  • Still, as in August, the Governor’s press conference carried a clearer sense of bias than the statement, and it seems the board will be on hold in November unless the 3Q CPI details unacceptably challenge the forecast outcomes for 1H27 (our own forecast for core inflation largely aligns with the SoMP’s).

  • As in August, the concluding section of the statement noted the board will raise the cash rate further if needed, and is “attentive to the data and the evolving assessment of the outlook…” Last month’s statement had said that too, but the swing in voting from August implied a much higher weighting on near-term energy inflation than on incremental data or 1Y forward outcomes.

  • Governor Bullock’s press conference seemed to clarify that (perhaps after today’s action) the board is now forward-looking again, and believes there is a limit to how much can be done about very near-term inflation. This doesn’t rule out November, but at least suggests the right kind of conditionality on the full 3Q CPI report.

  • The Governor was also quite explicit about the stance of policy (“We think we’re restrictive”), citing the staff’s r* estimates, housing and credit outcomes among others. This is a bit stronger than the wording in the statement, which only acknowledged the tautology that conditions had sequentially “tightened” via rate hikes. Lags of policy were also noted (“a lot of that is still to flow through”). Regarding future tightening, the response suggested data dependence but with a near-term bias to pause (“What we are hoping is this is restrictive enough… markets will adjust as the data come out”).

TD Securities

The market’s initial reaction to the September statement was that it was more hawkish than the August statement. Our interpretation was, yes, at face value it was more hawkish, but this was simply the Bank listing facts in support of hiking today — namely that inflation was stronger than expected, growth was higher than expected, and energy price assumptions were exceeded.

  • At the same time, the Board acknowledged that consumption, housing, and labour conditions were easing broadly as expected. The takeaway for us was that while capacity pressures remain, the Board did not emphasize domestic pressures as overheating.

  • If the RBA does not hike in November, then the option of having to hike in December would be a difficult and uncomfortable one. The RBA would be loath to deliver this. As such, the longer the RBA leaves the decision to hike, the more likely the Bank will be more comfortable keeping the cash rate on hold against a likely weakening in domestic activity.

  • While our base case is for the RBA to keep the cash rate on hold at 4.60%, there is a risk the RBA may need to reconsider hiking again at its Feb ’27 meeting. This is not our central view and, from a market perspective, not a view worth positioning for right now — but one worth considering, as discussed in our preview.

Westpac

As was universally expected, the RBA Monetary Policy Board (MPB) lifted the cash rate by 25bps to 4.6% at its September 2026 meeting. This is quite the turnaround from the 11 August meeting, where an extended period on hold looked to be the base case. But the MPB can now point to the emergence of some of the upside risks to inflation it warned of in August.

  • The decision was unanimous, suggesting that any qualms external MPB members might have had about the RBA’s downbeat view of supply capacity were overruled by resurgent oil prices and the stronger-than-forecast CPI and GDP data.

  • With upside risks being seen to have emerged, the post-meeting statement language included that the Board “will continue to do what it considers necessary to bring inflation sustainably back to target, including increasing the cash rate target further if needed” — a small but meaningful change from the “if upside risks materialise” language from the previous meeting, and back to the tone of the language at the June meeting.

  • The bar for a follow-up hike in November is low. Indeed, judging by today’s rhetoric, a November hike is now the base case, absent a lasting resolution of the Middle East conflict beforehand, or some other event that significantly lowers the outlook for energy-related costs in Australia. The bar for hikes beyond that is much higher, given the cumulative rise in interest rates, and noting that the labour market is easing and the housing market will likely weaken further.