Good Morning,

See full details below….. But here is a selection recap…… (My ratings are 1-10 so 2/10 is 1ptEW)

1:20 – I think Bravemansgame has a very big shout, but I am very much afraid of Bob Olinger. At the moment, No Bet, but I am getting tempted, I must admit.

1:55 – Just sit back and watch. Hopefully we will see yet another Mulliins star in Monkfish, operating to the best of his ability. No bet of course.

Already advised:

2:30 – BOTOX HAS (5/10 E/W) 14/1   I will definitely be backing him again today, it’s up to you if you want to go in again.

TEA CLIPPER (2/10 E/W) 50/1

BOTOX HAS is my main fancy, who I will probably bet again today, but I have to have a little on TEA CLIPPER as well at the prices.

3:05 – CILAOS EMERY (4/10 E/W) 14/1

I think the fav is the one to best, but he is worth taking on  with a small each way play and CILAOS EMERY gets a very tentative vote from me.

3:40 – the 2 best horses, Easysland and Tiger Roll, may well outpoint the others, so officially it’s No Bets in this race, but that may change later.

4:15 – ENTOUCAS (5/10 E/W) 15/2

OR JAUN DE SOMOZA (2/10 E/W) 33/1

ENTOUCAS and OR JAUN DE SOMOZA will just about top my very long shortlist.

4:50 – No Bet – the prize will go home on the Irish ferry tonight, I suspect

I will start once again with the feature race of the day, which means, The Betway QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE (2m) is up first at 3:05. 10 runners

All eyes will be on the short priced favourite Chacun Pour Soi, who looks the real deal and in most people’s eyes, is a good thing for this. He might well be, but he does have to break an unusual statistic here. It’s hard to believe, but trainer Willie Mullins’s record in this race is 0 from I think 11 runners, which goes back to the mid 90’s. Min in 2018 and Un Des Sceaux back in 2016, both came 2nd. Chacun Pour Soi has a very good chance to put Willie Mullins on the roll of honours list and let’s face it, he may not have won this yet, but it’s just a matter of time before he does, surely. This lad can lead, he can be held up, generally he is a very sound jumper, he acts on most ground, so is versatile regarding all of those aspects, the only doubt is the track really. He hasn’t raced here before (should have ran last year but had a last minute setback) so he has to answer that question, but I think he will be fine. With Altior out, the opposition may look a little weaker, but there are some classy horses against him and I’m sure that some will give him a fright at the very least. Nubre Negra is improving and has to be feared. Course specialist Put The Kettle On (3 wins from 3 here, including last year’s Arkle) is sure to go well, but she does have over 8 lengths to make up on the fav on their Leopardstown form 80 days ago. First Flow just keeps digging deep and winning and there is no telling how far he can go, but drying ground is a bit of a concern now for him. He will serve it up from the outset but is likely to face competition up front from last year’s winner Politologue, who must not be left out of calculations either, with the ground coming right for him. Greanateen is not a complete no hoper, though he may need another year to scale these heights, as too might Rouge Vif  but at least the drying ground will suit both of those. Notebook has seen the rear end of Chacun Pour Soi twice already this season, albeit at a respectable and safe distance, being that he was 6 and 15 lengths in his arrears. I have considered 2 in this for a bet, Alan King’s evergreen 9yo Sceau Royal seems better than ever this year and with a clear round of jumping, he can have some say, but I am actually going to suggest the Willie Mullins 2nd string in this believe it or not. CILAOS EMERY may not have the same appeal as his much better fancied stablemate and he may not have achieved the heights that the Mullins stable once thought he could, but there is no doubt that this 9yo still retains plenty of ability. He has too, else they would stay in Ireland and probably keep cherry picking over there, (which is all he’s been doing for the last few seasons), rather than play a very minor role in this. His career record of 15 races, with 8 victories (mixing chasing with hurdling since early 2019) might tell you that. On his day, he is not far from top class, it’s just that he’s rarely been thrown into the deep end, but when he has, like in last years Champion Hurdle (finished 4th), he has just come up short. For most, if not all, since the spring of 2017 as it happens, he has only been able to race on soft or heavy ground, but the stable have always suggested that better ground is really what he needs and his breeding will actually suggest that is the case as well.  It just could be, that everything might fall into place for him later, but in order to do that, he has to put in a clear round of jumping (has made errors before), have something to aim at with a decent pace (very likely), but above all else, he has to beat his more illustrious stable companion and the other 8 very useful contenders too. A very small each way investment won’t hurt I feel, whatever the outcome. 

Verdict and Selection – I think the fav is the one to best, but he is worth taking on  with a small each way play and CILAOS EMERY gets a very tentative vote from me.

The opener at 1:20, is The Ballymore Novices Hurdle (2m5f)  7 runners

A very small, but very select field for this year’s renewal. Rather like the opening 2 contests on Tuesday, the first 2 races today, both look like contests for the obvious favourite backing type, which as you know, does not suit me. I will not be having a bet on this, I can tell you, but I am very much looking forward to watching the 3 leading and outstanding candidates and how they go both this afternoon and further on their careers as well. I’ve seen plenty already from the main UK challenger Bravemansgame and from what I’ve seen, he could well be a horse destined for somewhere at or near the top. He looks every inch a chaser, but he already looked a class act in every hurdles contest he’s won this season (on all kinds of ground) and if there are any flaws in the Irish pair (at the top of the market) I do think he has every chance of turning them both over this afternoon. Bob Olinger and Gaillard De Mesnil, have both looked very classy animals themselves, but they have only encountered soft or heavy ground over in Ireland and it remains to be seen how they will cope with what is, very much drying ground. If anything, based on breeding, I actually think that Bob Olinger will be a better animal on a decent surface, but I am not quite sure how the Mullins runner Gaillard De Mesnil will cope in all honesty. He might be ground dependent, but until the race is run, we really do not know. Of the others, Bear Ghylls and Keskonrisk are very capable sorts themselves, that could well shake up the principles, but they might struggle to land the spoils. Does He Know and Optimise Prime face a mountain by the looks of it, but racing is a funny old game and ruling those out entirely, would be a silly thing to do. 

Verdict – I think Bravemansgame has a very big shout, but I am very much afraid of Bob Olinger. At the moment, No Bet, but I am getting tempted, I must admit.

Next up at 1:55, is The Brown Advisory Novices Chase (3m) 6 runners (the old RSA)

Basically, we might be seeing a National Hunt star in the shape of Monkfish in this, hence most trainers have kept their horse away from him today. Anything bar a win for him, would be a total shock, he really does look that good. Gold Cup material next year no doubt, if all goes well and he stays sound of course. He is not a working man’s price, so I cannot advise a bet on him, but just sit back and enjoy what should be a proper jumping spectacle, even if it does turn out to be, just a bit of a stroll in the park. It’s not always about making money this game, I do like watching top class horses at work and this lad is up there with the best. There are some very nice prospects on the scene right now but sadly for us, they are all avoiding each other for the time being. Barring a mishap, he wins, but who will be vying for the runners up spot? I suspect it will be fought between any of the other 5 runners folks. I really have no idea, honestly. If I hazard a guess I would say Sporting John, but don’t blame me if he doesn’t land you the forecast, please. 

Verdict – Just sit back and watch. Hopefully we will see yet another Mulliins star in Monkfish, operating to the best of his ability. No bet of course.

Then we have The Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle (2m5f) at 2:30 just the 26 runners here…

I have already advised BOTOX HAS in this and with the ground drying a touch, I’m not going to change my mind. He should be fine on the drying ground, probably be more at home on it even I think, the step up in trip looks ideal and he has plenty of Cheltenham form to boot. Hopefully he can give us a good run and maybe even give a tonic to the Moore’s, who must be so disappointed with what happened to Goshen in the Champion Hurdle yesterday. There are plenty of dangers here of course, 25 of them to be honest and he will need a little luck in running no doubt, unless as I hoped, they have him prominent from the outset. The most obvious dangers are those at the head of the market, Koshari, Grand Roi, Craigneche (10/1 who was considered as a saver), I think Guard Your Dreams will enjoy the step up in trip and be competitive, wouldn’t rule out Thomas Darby despite top weight, Dysart Diamond, Monte Cristo and Shan Tang can all figure, but for an outside bet and saver, I’m going to suggest Tom Lacey’s TEA CLIPPER, because he is such a big price, too big if you ask me. A 3m point winner here in the UK back in early 2019 (sole run in points), he then had a successful time of things during his first season under rules during the 2019/20 season. He won his first 2 starts in novice hurdles (both 2m), then won a competitive handicap at the same trip (making it 4 straight wins), before he tasted defeat for the first time in his career in February last year. That defeat came in a near 2m4f contest, but it was in no way any disgrace at all. He just got going a little too late and it could be argued, the ground was shade too soft for him on that day as well. Fast forward to his return this season (following a break of 247 days), where he put up an excellent effort, to win the Silver Trophy at Chepstow (good ground) back in early October and to be totally honest, he seemed to win with plenty left up his sleeve. The handicapper put him up 7lb, which was fair, if anything, he could have added another pound or two really, but it didn’t matter as it happens. He then missed a Cheltenham engagement in early November (ground too soft) but was soon rerouted to Newbury (2m4f) at the end of the month. He did disappoint a touch that day at Newbury, as he went off the fav at just over 2/1, but he came home in a 9 lengths 5th of the 12 that day. I think he has at least 1 valid excuse for that display anyway. They went no gallop at all, it more or less turned into a half mile sprint and when trying to quicken 2 from home, he clouted that hurdle and basically that was it. He stayed on again late in that, but the damage was done. I would be surprised if he’s not a good deal better than that anyway. Since then, he’s had a cobweb opener at Newcastle on the all weather, in 1 of those jumpers bumpers, which seemed to go ok, I suppose, for what they are worth. That was 43 days ago, he has only had 3 runs this season too, none in deep mid winter ground, so he is very fresh and really should be ready and raring to go today. Fitness will not be an issue, the trip looks perfect, the ground is coming right and with a win at an undulating track like Chepstow, Cheltenham could well be a plus as well. 

Verdict and Selections – BOTOX HAS is my main fancy, who I will probably bet again today, but I have to have a little on TEA CLIPPER as well at the prices.

Following that is the Champion Chase, then at 3:40, we are onto The Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase (3m6f) 13 runners

The question here is, can anything topple last year’s runaway winner, the very short priced favourite and French raider Easysland? The answer to that is, I doubt it, but softer ground would suit him ideally. He disappointed on his first outing here back in November and that was the first time he had encountered good ground. Will it be a little on the dry side for him later? Maybe so. We all know how wonderful Tiger Roll has been down the years. His cv includes 2 Grand Nationals, 4 Cheltenham festival victories (Triumph hurdle (2m) as a 4yo, way back in 2014, the 4m National Hunt chase in 2017, then a two time winner of this x-country race in 2018 and 2019), but he was beaten 17 lengths by Easysland in this last year (on very soft ground), yet he came home 2nd, 18 lengths ahead of the rest. He hasn’t quite looked the same this season, so the question is, does he still retain all of that ability and enthusiasm? I hope he does, but the answer is I don’t really know to tell you the truth. The ground conditions will be more in his favour than Easysland’s this afternoon, but I’m not sure I want to be taking the 5/1 about him, when there are doubts about his most recent form. The problem with this race is that if these 2 dominate, which they might, there are only 1 or 2 places left for a possible each way bet. Most bookmakers are betting 1,2,3 only, but some are offering that extra 4th spot. If you can get on with those, consider 1 or 2 of the following and have yourselves a little fun. With drying ground, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Le Breuil (14/1) run a big race, but he has yet to try out x-country racing, the same applies to the fairly capable, arguably quirky, possibly disappointing Gigginstown pair of Alpha Des Obeaux (20/1) and Balko Des Flos (14/1), who will both be making their x-country debuts as well. Of those that have already done this discipline and had some success too, Some Neck (won here in Dec) and Kingswell Theatre (won here in Nov), they could both run well again today, but the competition is a lot stronger this time, so it will not be easy for them. Don’t rule the 12yo Out Sam from a top 5 spot, he’s been 3rd twice and 4th, in his 3 visits to this x-country track and for most, the ground has been too soft for him as well. I’m tempted to have a couple of small e/w bets, Le Brueil and possibly Alpha Des Obeaux, but my view is.

Verdict – the 2 best horses, Easysland and Tiger Roll, masy well outpoint the others, so officially it’s No Bets in this race, but that may change later.

At 4:15, it’s time for The Johnny Henderson Challenge Cup Grand Annual Handicap Chase (2m) 19 runners

I have to be honest with you folks, I am quite keen on the Favourite Embittered in this, but at just 9/2, I cannot bring myself to select him. I did actually select him for the County hurdle last season (at a price) and he ran extremely well to finish in 4th, so I know he will handle the track. The drying ground will also play to his strengths, as will what is likely to be a very strong run race from the outset. The emphasis will be on basic speed, a bit of stamina (to get up the hill), the ability to handle drying ground and the ability to jump very cleanly throughout. Just 1 mistake in this and it might be game over, for there will be no prisoners taken here, that I can assure you. What I can’t assure is a clean round by Embittered, he has jumped very well in the main, but he has not quite looked the finished article over fences as yet. He has only raced 4 times over them in fairness, so he is bound to get better. All 4 races were in novice company in Ireland and now he’s stepping into handicap company, but he looks well treated, so if he gets it right today, he just might be too good for what are generally speaking, a field of older, more exposed types. I fear him but I think there is little between him, what he’s done and what ENTOUCAS has done too, the only difference between the pair, is that Embittered has run at Cheltenham before, well as ENTOUCAS has not. That and the 3lb Embittered has to give the selection and the fact he is virtually 3 points bigger as well. They have similar records over hurdles, similar records over fences this season too, but ENTOUCAS has run in 2 very competitive handicaps (last 2 starts) and has run well on both occasions. The ground will have been a little slower than ideal in those and I’m expecting this much drier ground will suit. He can race handy, make the running or even be held. Like Embittered, he too is yet to win over fences, but they both look and are bred for this game and it’s a matter of time before they both break their ducks. They each have the class to figure today anyway and I’m just siding with the one with a slightly better price. Of the rest, I think that last year’s winner Chosen Mate, now he returns to the place of his greatest triumph, will all of a sudden, bounce back to life. Zanza looks well treated and should go well, but I prefer him at tracks without undulations. The ground may be drying up too much for Ibleo, the ground might not be an issue for the much improved Sky Pirate, neither will a fast run race (will suit him), but after a successful season, has the handicapper now caught up with him? Maybe not. Last year’s 3rd, Us And Them has to be respected, but he can be very quirky and his jumping is not always assured. Dan Skelton’s pair, Not That Fuise (was considered) and Amoola Gold could both play a part, as could an old friend of mine Moonlighter, if putting in a clear and safe round. I will have 1 other bet in this, but it will be on an outsider and he is a quirky / unpredictable bugger, but if he’s in the mood, if he takes to the track and jumps well here (never been to Cheltenham and can make the odd error) and doesn’t get taken completely off his feet in the first half of the race, I would not be surprised to see OR JAUN DE SOMOZA finishing off here in the first half a dozen or better. The ground will suit, certainly better than it has of late in Ireland, yet he’s actually been showing signs of a return to form over there. With Jack Kennedy on top, he will get a good ride at least. 

Verdict and Selections – ENTOUCAS and OR JAUN DE SOMOZA will just about top my very long shortlist.

To round off day 2, at 4:50, we have The Weatherbys Champion Bumper (2m) 15 runners

I know nothing of Bumper contests folks, so there is no way I’m going to suggest or anything in this other than to say, the Irish usually go home with the prize (won 7 of last 10). With 7 of the 15 contenders, all of which are in the top 9 in the betting, unless Dan Skelton’s Elle Est Belle (20/1) is any good, this prize is likely to head in a westerly direction and across the Irish Sea yet again. Willie Mullins has 4 of the first 6 in the betting, of which Kilcruit and Sir Gerard appear to be his strongest fancies, but I wouldn’t know who’s who to be honest folks, so as far as I’m concerned, they can have the prize for all I care. If Willie isn’t going to win it again, for the umpteenth time (10 already since 1996), then Gordon Elliott (won 2 of last 4), ooh I’m sorry, Mrs Denise Foster might do so with one of his / hers! I will cheer for the Brits, but I don’t hold out much hope. 

Verdict – the prize will go home on the Irish ferry tonight, I suspect.

Recap

CHELTENHAM

2:30 – TEA CLIPPER (2/10 E/W) 50/1

My ratings are 1-10 so 2/10 is 1ptEW

3:05 – CILAOS EMERY (4/10 E/W) 14/1

My ratings are 1-10 so 4/10 is 2ptsEW

4:15 – ENTOUCAS (5/10 E/W) 15/2

 My ratings are 1-10 so 5/10 is 2.5ptsEW

 4:15 – OR JAUN DE SOMOZA (2/10 E/W) 33/1

My ratings are 1-10 so 2/10 is 1ptEW

My ratings are 1-10 so 5/10 is 2.5pstEW

Already advised:

2:30 – BOTOX HAS (5/10 E/W) 14/1   I will definitely be backing him again today, it’s up to you if you want to go in again.

 

 

James Fay Founding Partner T +44(0)20 7422 2978 M +44 (0)7500 988 788 E james.fay@archr.com 49 Carnaby Street, London, W1F 9PY United Kingdom ARCHR.COM

 

 

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