Recap:

1:20 – Verdict – I hope Envoi Allen maintains his sequence.  No Bet.

1:55 – CHAMPAGNE PLATINUM (4/10 E/W) 15/2 & REDFORD ROAD (2/10 E/W) 33-40/1

-Verdict and Selections – A very open contest, my two against the field are CHAMPAGNE PLATINUM and REDFORD ROAD.

2:30 – MISTER FISHER (4/10 E/W) 8/1

-Verdict – A very tricky contest to be honest, but I like the UK duo above the rest and MISTER FISHER gets a narrow vote ahead of the very useful Imperial Aura, who I may yet save on later.

3:05 – FURY ROAD (6/10 E/W) 9/2-5/1   He has been smashed, not by me. I will leave him up there for selection, but at that price now, I’m not sure I want to play.

-Verdict and Selection – FURY ROAD, but Paisley Park will be very hard to beat.

3:40 – FARCLAS (6/10 E/W) 8/1

4:15 – No Bet

4:50 – GO ANOTHER ONE (3/10 E/W) 20/1 & CLOUDY GLEN (2/10 E/W)   28-33/1

It’s time for day 3 now and it will be a much busier day for me on the betting front I can tell you. Which race do you think is the feature at Prestbury Park this afternoon folks? It is debatable, because the most valuable prize later, happens to be the £265,000 Ryanair Chase, an event for those not quite quick enough for the Champion Chase, or for those that lack the stamina to run in the Gold Cup, or so they say. In terms of prestige and in terms of age for me, it has to be the Stayers Hurdle, for it is a proper Championship event. It may only have a prize fund of a mere 1/4 of a million in comparison, but in my opinion, it’s today’s most important event. So that’s where I will begin in this email.

At 3:05, the tapes will go up for The Paddy Power STAYERS HURDLE (3m) 15 runners. 

At the head of the market and rightly so, is the 2019 winner Paisley Park. Although a well beaten 14 lengths 7th in last year’s renewal, he was found to have a fibrillating heart soon after, but with that issue now sorted, he has looked back to his best again this season. His first race went really well, but he just failed to match a new kid on the block Thyme Hill at Newbury in November, but in the dying stages, he got his revenge on him at Ascot the following month (what a shame that Thyme Hill has been forced out due to a muscular problem). That Ascot ground was totally against him, today’s much drier and livelier surface will be right up his street. He will be a very tough nut to crack, but at 2/1, I think it’s worth having an each way poke on something else. Last year’s surprise winner Lisnagar Oscar will not be too far away. If coping with the switch back to hurdles, following a spell over fences, Vindication, should go well too. The much improved Irish raider Flooring Porter, could be a real player as well. He has made all the running and has not seen a rival in either of his last 2 contests, the first in a 20 runner handicap, the latest came in a 7 runner graded contest, just over 3 weeks after that, both took place at Leopardstown and on quite soft ground. Behind him in 3rd place that day, some 7 lengths back, was Sire De Berlais. He has won the last 2 Pertemps Final contests here (today’s 1:55), so we know he comes good this time of year. I expect him to reverse form with Flooring Porter and be a big player this afternoon, but I fancy his stablemate FURY ROAD to outpoint him. A useful novice last season, when he won 3 from 5, his best effort actually came in defeat, when he was just touched off in the Albert Bartlett 3m Novice, at the festival last year. He went down by just a neck behind 2 very classy sorts (Monkfish and Latest Exhibition), with Thyme Hill back in 4th. That was a cracking renewal of that race and those around him, have not let that form down since. One thing it did, was show that FURY ROAD acted very well at the track and if taking a strict line through the 4th Thyme Hill, it puts him very close to or even in front Paisley Park. That is a bit too literal to be honest, but it can’t be too far away from the mark if you ask me. Anyway, he hasn’t quite reached the same heights this season, but I believe he’s been kept back and fresh for this. He did win on his return back in November (had too, was odds on), but got beat by both Flooring Porter and Sire De Berlais in that Leopardstown around Christmas (steady pace, winner made all and pinched it), then he went down by a neck, behind another of today’s rivals Beacon Edge at Navan last month. The trip of 2m5f in heavy ground there was not ideal at all and I think connections left something to work on for this race as well. I think we will see a much fitter horse today and I think he will be at home on this much drier ground as well. Whilst he’s been mainly campaigning in soft / heavy ground and had plenty of success on it, he does have winning form on good ground twice (in his younger days) and his breeding suggests he might actually prefer it even. Based on that and last year’s festival form, he comes out on top of my list for this.

Verdict and Selection – FURY ROAD, but Paisley Park will be very hard to beat.

I will do the most valuable prize next folks, which of course is The Ryanair Chase (2m4f127yds) and is due off at 2:30. 12 runners.

This race is extremely tricky but I don’t envisage a shock here to be honest. To find the winner, I think we have to concentrate on those in the top half of the market and probably those in the first 6 in the betting as well. If any of those in double figures wins, then I will hold my hands up and admit, I got things wrong. Those at double figured horses I’m ignoring are Samcro, who is unbeaten here at Cheltenham (2 wins from 2) but they were both on soft ground, the in form tough cookie Dashel Drasher (out now) So who is likely to benefit from the drying ground in the top 6 then? All of them, apart from Fakir D’oudaries perhaps, who may prefer some more juice in the ground.  Willie Mullins complicates things by running 4 here and 3 of them have a clear and obvious chance. Can the quirky Melon break his festival duck at the 5th time of asking? He’s been 2nd 4 times on the trot would you believe (supreme hurdle 2017, champion hurdle in 2018 and 19, then the march novice Chase last year) That’s some record for a classy animal, but a bloody frustrating one for all his connections of course. I expect him to run well, but he will probably just fail again, or will he!? Min won this last year (just), but it took him until his 4th festival appearance, before he finally broke his duck here (previous form here reads 225, all at a safe distance behind Altior). He will surely go close to adding to last year’s win, but Mullins may have a stronger candidate in the 7yo Allaho. He has been touted as a Gold Cup horse and had been plying his trade at 3m, but when dropped back to 2m4f on his latest start, he didn’t do anything wrong. I think this trip will suit for the time being and I think that drying ground will be no bother at all. He has a big chance today, but so do a couple of UK contenders and I think this prize has a great chance of staying at home. The question is, which one do I pick, as I fancy both of them to run well. As he’s proven on decent ground, I’m siding with Nicky Henderson’s MISTER FISHER ahead of Imperial Aura, but I may be regretting my decision later. Had it been slower, my decision would have gone the other way round. I see Imperial Aura more of a stayer than MISTER FISHER and could see him making up into a 3m graded performer one day. Horse over horse, I am quite sure that Imperial Aura is potentially a better animal than MISTER FISHER, but today’s conditions are more likely to suit the selection. Both have winning course and distance form and on softer ground as well, but with MISTER FISHER, his connections have always maintained that better ground suits him best. He has won at 2m and was considered an Arkle horse last season, so clearly he has pace, which is why he’s been selected over Kim Bailey’s horse. His record at Cheltenham reads 5 runs, 2 wins (both over this distance) and wasn’t far behind the principles (4 lengths) Samcro, Melon and Faugheen in last year’s Marsh Chase (today’s 1:20) on ground deemed a little too soft. They all got first run on MISTER FISHER last year, I think Nico De Boinville slightly overdid the hold up tactics, on better ground this time, with a bit more positivity from the saddle, I see no reason why he should not go close this afternoon. 

Verdict – A very tricky contest to be honest, but I like the UK duo above the rest and MISTER FISHER gets a narrow vote ahead of the very useful Imperial Aura, who I may yet save on later.

Back to the opening contest now. At 1:20, we have The Marsh Novices Chase (2m4f) nearly. 8 runners

We have seen some really promising Novices this week, but this Envoi Allen, has been the one I’ve been looking forward to most and for quite some time as well. I’ve no cash interest in this race and have no intention of playing today, as I said yesterday, I just want to see the very good / top class horses, doing what they do best, which is of course winning.  I want to see the best horses taking each other on, not avoiding one another. If Envoi Allen dots up today, we will have some mouth watering clashes to look forward to both during and at this point next season. (all being well and healthy of course). I think Envoi Allen has everything and is the best prospect I’ve seen for some time. He acts on any ground, is versatile regarding trips, he jumps very efficiently and well and when something puts him under pressure, he has the heart for a battle as well. He is flawless in my eyes, certainly up until now he has been anyway, his unbeaten record of 11 straight wins will tell you just that. Is there anything that can beat him later? Not for me there isn’t but he is a racehorse, not a machine, so who knows eh. He will taste defeat some day, everything does, but I’m not sure he’s going to lose his unbeaten record this afternoon. I expect him to be good for his rivals and maybe Shan Blue or Chantry House will fight things out for the minor placings, but if they jump a little better, both Asterion Forlonge and Darver Star could have other ideas. 

Verdict – I hope Envoi Allen maintains his sequence.  No Bet.

Next up at 1:55, is The Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle (3m) 23 runners

I’m not a massive fan of 3m Handicap Hurdles, but that doesn’t mean to say I avoid betting in them. You can never tell how they will be run and more often than not, they go a good bit slower than I expect them to do. That may be the case with this final. The 12yo Kansas City Chief is the likely pace angle in this, along with Potters Hedger perhaps, but I’m not sure they will be going that quick up front. I can almost see all 22 runners, covered by around 8 to 10 lengths, as they leave the back straight and get ready to roll down the hill, towards the home straight for the final time. If that happens, lady luck might play a big part in the outcome, so let’s hope they are a little more strung out by then eh. There are so many potential candidates here, far too many to mention really. The obvious ones are all in single figure prices, Imperial Alcazar, The Bosses Oscar and the springer in the market Milliner, who was so far down the original list of entries, I didn’t consider him at all, yet here he is. He is hard to weight up, having raced just 5 times, but with his connections, clearly he has to be given the utmost respect. That trio have all been well found in the market, so too has CHAMPAGNE PLATINUM and if I’m being totally honest, for what he’s actually achieved, I do feel he is a little under priced. I’m certain the drying ground will suit, 3m is just what he needs these days (for most, he’s been campaigning at shorter) and I think he’s had a very nice preparation for this race. He was in the doldrums a bit last season, as he didn’t seem to enjoy chasing too much, but a switch back to hurdling this season, has seen him begin to look good once again. An opening effort in a 2m4f contest (slowly run) on good ground at Newbury in November, where he was a very good 3rd (Tea Clipper 5th, he was 3rd in coral cup yesterday), was a good starting point, but he wasn’t seen until showing up in a qualifier for this at Haydock last month. He was given a lot to do that day, but the ground was very soft, the winner made all the running and basically, they did exactly what they needed to do with him, which was to get qualified for this. A staying on 2nd there, under a big weight, offered plenty for the final, hence his rather tight looking price today. Owner JP McManus has won this 2 year’s on the trot, can CHAMPAGNE PLATINUM make it a hat-trick for him later I wonder. It’s not impossible anyway, but it will not be easy. I have to bet an outsider as well folks I’m sorry to say. Those that crossed my mind were Mrs Milner, Storm Goddess (well bet already), Come On Teddy (not so much a rag though) and Storm Arising (who I think will carry a pound or two, just in case), but I’m taking a punt that the Twiston-Davies runner REDFORD ROAD will come to life, on this much better ground. I might be wrong and look a bit of a fool, but like a lot of the trainers’ horses, they just run on soft ground or worse rather a lot, when better ground might be the answer for some. I think that could be the case for this 7yo. On breeding there is every chance that will be the case and he has shown form on a decent surface in the past. Like my other selection, he was thrust into the chasing game, but this season and after 4 attempts (I wouldn’t call them failures, promise was shown) connections put him back over hurdles last time out. Funny enough, he too ran in the same Haydock qualifier as my other pick and to me, he offered just as much hope as he did. He was ridden a lot more aggressively anyway, held every chance up the home straight, held second as they landed over the last, but on quite soft ground and after trying quite hard, he did tire on the run to the line. A 13 lengths 4th of 12 was a sound enough effort though (5 lengths back for Champers) and I reckon he can build on that today. He was a promising novice last season, winning 2 times from 5, the latest happened to be over course and distance here, so I know the track holds no fears. He was well beat in the Albert Bartlett at the festival, but the ground was quite tiring, he didn’t shape that badly and he may have had enough by then (last run of the season). He is a risk but isn’t everything at the festival. At a big price anyway, we don’t need much either. 

Verdict and Selections – A very open contest, my two against the field are CHAMPAGNE PLATINUM and REDFORD ROAD.

The two feature contests are next on the card, but following those at 3:40, is The Paddy Power Plate Handicap Chase (2m4f127yds) 23 runners

I have already dealt with this race in my pre festival Unlucky 15 bet and selections. I was quite strong on FARCLAS at that point and looking through the list of runners for today, I’m very happy to stick with my choice. if anything, I might even up my Ante this afternoon, depending on how they bet nearer the off. He has a lot in his favour today. I must admit, I didn’t think The Shunter would take up this engagement (he had 5 or 6 entries), but he’s in here and I suppose he is the right favourite. At 7/2 however, I don’t think he represents anything like value. I wish connections luck in chasing an extra £100,000 bonus, which they will get if he wins, on the back of a bonus race up at Kelso last time out. He had a very hard race that day and it was only 12 days ago as well. Of the rest, I think Sully Doc AA, Happy Diva (she loves it here), Mister Whitaker, Caribean Boy and Oldgrangewood, could all go well, but if I was to place any more bets in this, with drying ground likely to suit, I would consider recent winner Paddy’s Poem, Huntsman’s Son (who does jump so well) or even The Unit. The last 2 there may prefer a flatter track though. I’m not sure about him now, but if he comes back and shows something like his best, then Champagne Court may outrun his odds too. Ground suits him.

Verdict and Selection – FARCLAS

At 4:15, we have The Parnell Properties Mares Novice Hurdle (2m1f) 15 runners

There are so many betting opportunities today, that I will be giving this race a complete swerve. This race has been run just 5 times and as yet, the UK contingent have not had a sniff of success. I’m not up to date with the form of the Irsih mares in this to be honest folks, so I see no point in making up a load of b******t about these, I will just tell you the truth. As Manuel used to say on Fawlty Towers (R I P Andrew Sachs), ” I Know Nothing ” in a Spanish accent of course. Basically, that is the truth with my views. Follow the money in this if you must have a bet or stick with the obvious Irish ones instead. Me, I will probably be preparing tea!

Verdict – No bet 

At 4:50, The Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (3m2f) will close things down for day 3. 23 runners

This is usually restricted to Amateur riders, but they have to keep away from racecourses here in the UK (seems bloody daft to me), so unfortunately for them, the professionals take over instead. I think it will lose a bit of appeal for some people, with that being the case, myself included folks, but as promised, I will give every Handicap a go at this year’s festival, so I have to come up with a plan for this. I have to be honest, this is as tough as any Handicap staying chase gets. I could fancy so many of these, Deise Aba, Plan Of Attack, Hold The Note and Shantou Flyer, all have prospects of reaching the frame at least. The horse I thought was the fly in this, has been well backed and now sits at favourite around the 6/1 mark. Mount Ida has been well found in the market and I fully understand why. As an ex point winner (3m), I find it strange that she’s been campaigning at trips ranging from 2m to 2m6f, when she is bred to and should appreciate 3m. The Gordon Elliott team did a similar thing with last year’s winner Milan Native and I think they are trying to do likewise (under a different name) with Mount Ida this time. She is totally unexposed both in handicap company and over trips at 3m+. She has a good chance, but she is not exactly thrown in at the weights and her price means I will be looking elsewhere now anyway. All I’m going to do in this race folks, is have a couple of fun, interest bets, both at quite big odds. We have enough bets already, so let’s just have a little fun here eh, it’s that kind of race anyway. I have considered Crievehill, Milanford and Didero Vallis, the latter I may bet yet even. He is trained by Ventia Williams and her stable jockey has chosen to ride him, ahead of her other runner CLOUDY GLEN, but he may be proved wrong. I quite like the booking of Robbie Dunne anyway, for this lad can sometimes take a bit of grip (he is settling better now) and can be a difficult ride at times. Robbie’s strength may suit him, as will his tactical ways in the saddle and I’m hopeful that drying ground will suit as well. Her horses are usually seen as mud lovers, which generally speaking they are (most national hunt horses are !) but I think that both Venetia Williams horses might prove better on decent ground and think that both of them will outrun their odds in this. My other pick is a little left field as well, but there is some support coming in for GO ANOTHER ONE now and I can understand why. He must have good ground to start with and his record when fresh is really quite good. He hasn’t run for 147 days but coming off a break of at least 52 days or more, throughout his career, his record reads 21432111F1. He has won more than as it happens (11 wins from 28 career starts), one of those victories was against another of today’s rivals Plan Of Attack, who he beat comfortably off level weights and is only 1lb worse off with him today. Plan Of Attack has leading claims and is just 8/1 here, so at over 20/1, I don’t mind throwing a few pounds each way on the John McConnel runner whatsoever. His stats in the UK are quite good as it happens, his strike rate is actually at 38%, for the past 5 years and reads 19 wins from 53 runners (4 from 19 at Cheltenham) with 13 others placed. What’s not to like about those figures. Jockey Simon Torrens is a useful and very capable 3lb claimer as well. He has been in great form lately in Ireland, I hope he can continue that trend over here.

 it’s time for day 3 now and it will be a much busier day for me on the betting front I can tell you. Which race do you think is the feature at Prestbury Park this afternoon folks? It is debatable, because the most valuable prize later, happens to be the £265,000 Ryanair Chase, an event for those not quite quick enough for the Champion Chase, or for those that lack the stamina to run in the Gold Cup, or so they say. In terms of prestige and in terms of age for me, it has to be the Stayers Hurdle, for it is a proper Championship event. It may only have a prize fund of a mere 1/4 of a million in comparison, but in my opinion, it’s today’s most important event. So that’s where I will begin in this email.

At 3:05, the tapes will go up for The Paddy Power STAYERS HURDLE (3m) 15 runners. 

At the head of the market and rightly so, is the 2019 winner Paisley Park. Although a well beaten 14 lengths 7th in last year’s renewal, he was found to have a fibrillating heart soon after, but with that issue now sorted, he has looked back to his best again this season. His first race went really well, but he just failed to match a new kid on the block Thyme Hill at Newbury in November, but in the dying stages, he got his revenge on him at Ascot the following month (what a shame that Thyme Hill has been forced out due to a muscular problem). That Ascot ground was totally against him, today’s much drier and livelier surface will be right up his street. He will be a very tough nut to crack, but at 2/1, I think it’s worth having an each way poke on something else. Last year’s surprise winner Lisnagar Oscar will not be too far away. If coping with the switch back to hurdles, following a spell over fences, Vindication, should go well too. The much improved Irish raider Flooring Porter, could be a real player as well. He has made all the running and has not seen a rival in either of his last 2 contests, the first in a 20 runner handicap, the latest came in a 7 runner graded contest, just over 3 weeks after that, both took place at Leopardstown and on quite soft ground. Behind him in 3rd place that day, some 7 lengths back, was Sire De Berlais. He has won the last 2 Pertemps Final contests here (today’s 1:55), so we know he comes good this time of year. I expect him to reverse form with Flooring Porter and be a big player this afternoon, but I fancy his stablemate FURY ROAD to outpoint him. A useful novice last season, when he won 3 from 5, his best effort actually came in defeat, when he was just touched off in the Albert Bartlett 3m Novice, at the festival last year. He went down by just a neck behind 2 very classy sorts (Monkfish and Latest Exhibition), with Thyme Hill back in 4th. That was a cracking renewal of that race and those around him, have not let that form down since. One thing it did, was show that FURY ROAD acted very well at the track and if taking a strict line through the 4th Thyme Hill, it puts him very close to or even in front Paisley Park. That is a bit too literal to be honest, but it can’t be too far away from the mark if you ask me. Anyway, he hasn’t quite reached the same heights this season, but I believe he’s been kept back and fresh for this. He did win on his return back in November (had too, was odds on), but got beat by both Flooring Porter and Sire De Berlais in that Leopardstown around Christmas (steady pace, winner made all and pinched it), then he went down by a neck, behind another of today’s rivals Beacon Edge at Navan last month. The trip of 2m5f in heavy ground there was not ideal at all and I think connections left something to work on for this race as well. I think we will see a much fitter horse today and I think he will be at home on this much drier ground as well. Whilst he’s been mainly campaigning in soft / heavy ground and had plenty of success on it, he does have winning form on good ground twice (in his younger days) and his breeding suggests he might actually prefer it even. Based on that and last year’s festival form, he comes out on top of my list for this.

Verdict and Selection – FURY ROAD, but Paisley Park will be very hard to beat.

I will do the most valuable prize next folks, which of course is The Ryanair Chase (2m4f127yds) and is due off at 2:30. 12 runners.

This race is extremely tricky but I don’t envisage a shock here to be honest. To find the winner, I think we have to concentrate on those in the top half of the market and probably those in the first 6 in the betting as well. If any of those in double figures wins, then I will hold my hands up and admit, I got things wrong. Those at double figured horses I’m ignoring are Samcro, who is unbeaten here at Cheltenham (2 wins from 2) but they were both on soft ground, the in form tough cookie Dashel Drasher (out now) So who is likely to benefit from the drying ground in the top 6 then? All of them, apart from Fakir D’oudaries perhaps, who may prefer some more juice in the ground.  Willie Mullins complicates things by running 4 here and 3 of them have a clear and obvious chance. Can the quirky Melon break his festival duck at the 5th time of asking? He’s been 2nd 4 times on the trot would you believe (supreme hurdle 2017, champion hurdle in 2018 and 19, then the march novice Chase last year) That’s some record for a classy animal, but a bloody frustrating one for all his connections of course. I expect him to run well, but he will probably just fail again, or will he!? Min won this last year (just), but it took him until his 4th festival appearance, before he finally broke his duck here (previous form here reads 225, all at a safe distance behind Altior). He will surely go close to adding to last year’s win, but Mullins may have a stronger candidate in the 7yo Allaho. He has been touted as a Gold Cup horse and had been plying his trade at 3m, but when dropped back to 2m4f on his latest start, he didn’t do anything wrong. I think this trip will suit for the time being and I think that drying ground will be no bother at all. He has a big chance today, but so do a couple of UK contenders and I think this prize has a great chance of staying at home. The question is, which one do I pick, as I fancy both of them to run well. As he’s proven on decent ground, I’m siding with Nicky Henderson’s MISTER FISHER ahead of Imperial Aura, but I may be regretting my decision later. Had it been slower, my decision would have gone the other way round. I see Imperial Aura more of a stayer than MISTER FISHER and could see him making up into a 3m graded performer one day. Horse over horse, I am quite sure that Imperial Aura is potentially a better animal than MISTER FISHER, but today’s conditions are more likely to suit the selection. Both have winning course and distance form and on softer ground as well, but with MISTER FISHER, his connections have always maintained that better ground suits him best. He has won at 2m and was considered an Arkle horse last season, so clearly he has pace, which is why he’s been selected over Kim Bailey’s horse. His record at Cheltenham reads 5 runs, 2 wins (both over this distance) and wasn’t far behind the principles (4 lengths) Samcro, Melon and Faugheen in last year’s Marsh Chase (today’s 1:20) on ground deemed a little too soft. They all got first run on MISTER FISHER last year, I think Nico De Boinville slightly overdid the hold up tactics, on better ground this time, with a bit more positivity from the saddle, I see no reason why he should not go close this afternoon. 

Verdict – A very tricky contest to be honest, but I like the UK duo above the rest and MISTER FISHER gets a narrow vote ahead of the very useful Imperial Aura, who I may yet save on later.

Back to the opening contest now. At 1:20, we have The Marsh Novices Chase (2m4f) nearly. 8 runners

We have seen some really promising Novices this week, but this Envoi Allen, has been the one I’ve been looking forward to most and for quite some time as well. I’ve no cash interest in this race and have no intention of playing today, as I said yesterday, I just want to see the very good / top class horses, doing what they do best, which is of course winning.  I want to see the best horses taking each other on, not avoiding one another. If Envoi Allen dots up today, we will have some mouth watering clashes to look forward to both during and at this point next season. (all being well and healthy of course). I think Envoi Allen has everything and is the best prospect I’ve seen for some time. He acts on any ground, is versatile regarding trips, he jumps very efficiently and well and when something puts him under pressure, he has the heart for a battle as well. He is flawless in my eyes, certainly up until now he has been anyway, his unbeaten record of 11 straight wins will tell you just that. Is there anything that can beat him later? Not for me there isn’t but he is a racehorse, not a machine, so who knows eh. He will taste defeat some day, everything does, but I’m not sure he’s going to lose his unbeaten record this afternoon. I expect him to be good for his rivals and maybe Shan Blue or Chantry House will fight things out for the minor placings, but if they jump a little better, both Asterion Forlonge and Darver Star could have other ideas. 

Verdict – I hope Envoi Allen maintains his sequence.  No Bet.

Next up at 1:55, is The Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle (3m) 23 runners

I’m not a massive fan of 3m Handicap Hurdles, but that doesn’t mean to say I avoid betting in them. You can never tell how they will be run and more often than not, they go a good bit slower than I expect them to do. That may be the case with this final. The 12yo Kansas City Chief is the likely pace angle in this, along with Potters Hedger perhaps, but I’m not sure they will be going that quick up front. I can almost see all 22 runners, covered by around 8 to 10 lengths, as they leave the back straight and get ready to roll down the hill, towards the home straight for the final time. If that happens, lady luck might play a big part in the outcome, so let’s hope they are a little more strung out by then eh. There are so many potential candidates here, far too many to mention really. The obvious ones are all in single figure prices, Imperial Alcazar, The Bosses Oscar and the springer in the market Milliner, who was so far down the original list of entries, I didn’t consider him at all, yet here he is. He is hard to weight up, having raced just 5 times, but with his connections, clearly he has to be given the utmost respect. That trio have all been well found in the market, so too has CHAMPAGNE PLATINUM and if I’m being totally honest, for what he’s actually achieved, I do feel he is a little under priced. I’m certain the drying ground will suit, 3m is just what he needs these days (for most, he’s been campaigning at shorter) and I think he’s had a very nice preparation for this race. He was in the doldrums a bit last season, as he didn’t seem to enjoy chasing too much, but a switch back to hurdling this season, has seen him begin to look good once again. An opening effort in a 2m4f contest (slowly run) on good ground at Newbury in November, where he was a very good 3rd (Tea Clipper 5th, he was 3rd in coral cup yesterday), was a good starting point, but he wasn’t seen until showing up in a qualifier for this at Haydock last month. He was given a lot to do that day, but the ground was very soft, the winner made all the running and basically, they did exactly what they needed to do with him, which was to get qualified for this. A staying on 2nd there, under a big weight, offered plenty for the final, hence his rather tight looking price today. Owner JP McManus has won this 2 year’s on the trot, can CHAMPAGNE PLATINUM make it a hat-trick for him later I wonder. It’s not impossible anyway, but it will not be easy. I have to bet an outsider as well folks I’m sorry to say. Those that crossed my mind were Mrs Milner, Storm Goddess (well bet already), Come On Teddy (not so much a rag though) and Storm Arising (who I think will carry a pound or two, just in case), but I’m taking a punt that the Twiston-Davies runner REDFORD ROAD will come to life, on this much better ground. I might be wrong and look a bit of a fool, but like a lot of the trainers’ horses, they just run on soft ground or worse rather a lot, when better ground might be the answer for some. I think that could be the case for this 7yo. On breeding there is every chance that will be the case and he has shown form on a decent surface in the past. Like my other selection, he was thrust into the chasing game, but this season and after 4 attempts (I wouldn’t call them failures, promise was shown) connections put him back over hurdles last time out. Funny enough, he too ran in the same Haydock qualifier as my other pick and to me, he offered just as much hope as he did. He was ridden a lot more aggressively anyway, held every chance up the home straight, held second as they landed over the last, but on quite soft ground and after trying quite hard, he did tire on the run to the line. A 13 lengths 4th of 12 was a sound enough effort though (5 lengths back for Champers) and I reckon he can build on that today. He was a promising novice last season, winning 2 times from 5, the latest happened to be over course and distance here, so I know the track holds no fears. He was well beat in the Albert Bartlett at the festival, but the ground was quite tiring, he didn’t shape that badly and he may have had enough by then (last run of the season). He is a risk but isn’t everything at the festival. At a big price anyway, we don’t need much either. 

Verdict and Selections – A very open contest, my two against the field are CHAMPAGNE PLATINUM and REDFORD ROAD.

The two feature contests are next on the card, but following those at 3:40, is The Paddy Power Plate Handicap Chase (2m4f127yds) 23 runners

I have already dealt with this race in my pre festival Unlucky 15 bet and selections. I was quite strong on FARCLAS at that point and looking through the list of runners for today, I’m very happy to stick with my choice. if anything, I might even up my Ante this afternoon, depending on how they bet nearer the off. He has a lot in his favour today. I must admit, I didn’t think The Shunter would take up this engagement (he had 5 or 6 entries), but he’s in here and I suppose he is the right favourite. At 7/2 however, I don’t think he represents anything like value. I wish connections luck in chasing an extra £100,000 bonus, which they will get if he wins, on the back of a bonus race up at Kelso last time out. He had a very hard race that day and it was only 12 days ago as well. Of the rest, I think Sully Doc AA, Happy Diva (she loves it here), Mister Whitaker, Caribean Boy and Oldgrangewood, could all go well, but if I was to place any more bets in this, with drying ground likely to suit, I would consider recent winner Paddy’s Poem, Huntsman’s Son (who does jump so well) or even The Unit. The last 2 there may prefer a flatter track though. I’m not sure about him now, but if he comes back and shows something like his best, then Champagne Court may outrun his odds too. Ground suits him.

Verdict and Selection – FARCLAS

At 4:15, we have The Parnell Properties Mares Novice Hurdle (2m1f) 15 runners

There are so many betting opportunities today, that I will be giving this race a complete swerve. This race has been run just 5 times and as yet, the UK contingent have not had a sniff of success. I’m not up to date with the form of the Irsih mares in this to be honest folks, so I see no point in making up a load of b******t about these, I will just tell you the truth. As Manuel used to say on Fawlty Towers (R I P Andrew Sachs), ” I Know Nothing ” in a Spanish accent of course. Basically, that is the truth with my views. Follow the money in this if you must have a bet or stick with the obvious Irish ones instead. Me, I will probably be preparing tea!

Verdict – No bet 

At 4:50, The Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (3m2f) will close things down for day 3. 23 runners

This is usually restricted to Amateur riders, but they have to keep away from racecourses here in the UK (seems bloody daft to me), so unfortunately for them, the professionals take over instead. I think it will lose a bit of appeal for some people, with that being the case, myself included folks, but as promised, I will give every Handicap a go at this year’s festival, so I have to come up with a plan for this. I have to be honest, this is as tough as any Handicap staying chase gets. I could fancy so many of these, Deise Aba, Plan Of Attack, Hold The Note and Shantou Flyer, all have prospects of reaching the frame at least. The horse I thought was the fly in this, has been well backed and now sits at favourite around the 6/1 mark. Mount Ida has been well found in the market and I fully understand why. As an ex point winner (3m), I find it strange that she’s been campaigning at trips ranging from 2m to 2m6f, when she is bred to and should appreciate 3m. The Gordon Elliott team did a similar thing with last year’s winner Milan Native and I think they are trying to do likewise (under a different name) with Mount Ida this time. She is totally unexposed both in handicap company and over trips at 3m+. She has a good chance, but she is not exactly thrown in at the weights and her price means I will be looking elsewhere now anyway. All I’m going to do in this race folks, is have a couple of fun, interest bets, both at quite big odds. We have enough bets already, so let’s just have a little fun here eh, it’s that kind of race anyway. I have considered Crievehill, Milanford and Didero Vallis, the latter I may bet yet even. He is trained by Ventia Williams and her stable jockey has chosen to ride him, ahead of her other runner CLOUDY GLEN, but he may be proved wrong. I quite like the booking of Robbie Dunne anyway, for this lad can sometimes take a bit of grip (he is settling better now) and can be a difficult ride at times. Robbie’s strength may suit him, as will his tactical ways in the saddle and I’m hopeful that drying ground will suit as well. Her horses are usually seen as mud lovers, which generally speaking they are (most national hunt horses are !) but I think that both Venetia Williams horses might prove better on decent ground and think that both of them will outrun their odds in this. My other pick is a little left field as well, but there is some support coming in for GO ANOTHER ONE now and I can understand why. He must have good ground to start with and his record when fresh is really quite good. He hasn’t run for 147 days but coming off a break of at least 52 days or more, throughout his career, his record reads 21432111F1. He has won more than as it happens (11 wins from 28 career starts), one of those victories was against another of today’s rivals Plan Of Attack, who he beat comfortably off level weights and is only 1lb worse off with him today. Plan Of Attack has leading claims and is just 8/1 here, so at over 20/1, I don’t mind throwing a few pounds each way on the John McConnel runner whatsoever. His stats in the UK are quite good as it happens, his strike rate is actually at 38%, for the past 5 years and reads 19 wins from 53 runners (4 from 19 at Cheltenham) with 13 others placed. What’s not to like about those figures. Jockey Simon Torrens is a useful and very capable 3lb claimer as well. He has been in great form lately in Ireland, I hope he can continue that trend over here.

Recap

CHELTENHAM

1:55 – CHAMPAGNE PLATINUM (4/10 E/W) 15/2

My ratings are 1-10 so 4/10 is 2ptsEW

1.55 – REDFORD ROAD (2/10 E/W) 33-40/1

My ratings are 1-10 so 2/10 is 1ptsEW

2:30 – MISTER FISHER (4/10 E/W) 8/1

My ratings are 1-10 so 4/10 is 2ptsEW

3:05 – FURY ROAD (6/10 E/W) 9/2-5/1   He has been smashed, not by me. I will leave him up there for selection, but at that price now, I’m not sure I want to play.

My ratings are 1-10 so 6/10 is 3ptsEW

4:50 – GO ANOTHER ONE (3/10 E/W) 20/1

My ratings are 1-10 so 3/10 is 1.5ptsEW

 4.50   – CLOUDY GLEN (2/10 E/W)   28-33/1

My ratings are 1-10 so 2/10 is 1ptEW

Already advised:

3:40 – FARCLAS (6/10 E/W) 8/1

My ratings are 1-10 so 6/10 is 3ptsEW

 

 

James Fay Founding Partner T +44(0)20 7422 2978 M +44 (0)7500 988 788 E james.fay@archr.com 49 Carnaby Street, London, W1F 9PY United Kingdom ARCHR.COM

 

 

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