Good Morning,

See full analysis below. But, here’s a summary:

1:20 – No Bet  One of the leading trio at the head of the market will probably win, with the Jolly Zanahiyr being my prefered choice.

1:55 – YOU RAISED ME UP (5/10 E/W)16/1 he is 13/2 best now & BELFAST BANTER (2/10 E/W) 33/1+

Verdict and Selections – YOU RAISED ME UP main play and at much bigger odds BELFAST BANTER is worth a tiny poke .

2:30 – Verdict – No Bet for me, not officially anyway.

3:05 – MINELLA INDO (5/10 E/W) 8/1

Verdict – looks like another one for the Irish MINELLA INDO each way for me.

3:40 – CHAMERON (3/10 E/W) 20/1+

Verdict – I do feel that last year’s 1st and 2nd, It Came To Pass and Billaway, yep, both from Ireland, they hold the strongest claims, but a small bet on CHAMERON won’t hurt the bank.

4:15 – No Bet

4:50 – AMOUR DE NUIT (2/10 E/W) 50/1-66/1 & EGLANTINE DU SEUIL (2/10 E/W) 28/1

Verdict – As I just said, I think the Irish might once again dominate, but AMOUR DE NUIT and EGLANTINE DE SEUIL just might outrun their odds and are worth a little tiny play.

 

It’s Gold Cup day, so let’s get cracking and look at the big race first.

3:05 The Wellchild CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP CHASE (3m2f). 12 runners

The big question is, can Al Boum Photo emulate some of the true legends of the game and complete a hat-trick of wins in the race? Cottage Rake 1948/49/50, Arkle 1964/65/66 and Best Mate 2002/03/04 have all won this 3 years on the bounce, Golden Miller achieved greater still, he rattled up a 5 timer between 1932 and 1936 believe it or not. Those 4 names are etched into the history books forever and there is every chance that Willie Mullins 9yo can join them later, but is he really that good? To win 2 Gold Cups, is an achievement itself, to win 3, well if he does that later, I for one will hold my hands up and say, good on yer. For me, he is a very good horse and has been at the top of the 3m chasers for the past 2 seasons, but I’m not putting him in the great category, not just yet anyway. He has every chance of completing a very rare feat, but I’ve a feeling, he just might come unstuck. His biggest concern is the opposition of course, but drying ground conditions might not be ideal either. Virtually all his form, certainly his best that is, has come with juice in the ground and it remains to be seen how he will cope with ground riding very close to, if not good. He clearly has to be feared, but I have to oppose him at 3/1. If I have to oppose him, then at a similar price, I have to oppose A Plus Tard as well. I wasn’t sure about his stamina, prior to him winning the Savills Chase at Leopardstown back in December, when he got up close home to beat Kemboy and Melon in a driving finish, with yesterday’s Ryanair winner Allaho, a further 20 lengths back in 4th. The run confirmed that 3m actually suits him but this is 3m2f+ and the opposition are, if anything, a bit stronger this afternoon. Trainer / jockey combination, Rachael Blackmore / Henry De Bromhead are in rude health, who’s to say this progressive 7yo will not be adding to their festival tally. De Bromhead also saddles MINELLA INDO, who at the start of this 2021 campaign, was supposed to be his Gold Cup horse, but things haven’t quite gone to plan for him on his last 2 starts. He won 2 small field contests back in the autumn / early winter and all seemed to be going well then, but he then took an uncharacteristic tumble in that Savills Chase at Leopardstown (8th fence), when he was 5/2 fav, then at the same track in early February (40 days ago) he came home 4th of the 5 runners in the Irish Gold Cup. Beaten just under 7 lengths, in what was a very steadily run race, dominated from start to finish Kemboy.  I don’t think it was too bad a trial to be honest. It was a messy race, it turned into a sprint and from what I could see, they were just happy to get MINELLA INDO around, just to get his confidence restored. Job done for me, this will be a totally different test and one that I feel will suit him. He has festival form already, which always helps. He was a good winner of the Albert Bartlett in 2019 (today’s 2:30) and he just got touched off by Champ in last year’s RSA novice chase (3m) but that was because both he and Allaho, just went hell for leather too far from home. He finished tired then, but that ground was deep and he was ridden far too aggressively. Basically, he is an out and out stayer, that usually jumps very well, he can cope with better ground, the stable are in great form, my only nag is that his regular rider has opted to ride A Plus Tard instead. I guess Rachael Blackmore knows better than me, but jockeys can be wrong and I see Jack Kennedy as an able deputy anyway. I’m hopeful; rather than expectant shall we say, but at least it’s an Irish selection, that alone gives us a better chance, certainly the way things have been going over the first 3 days. Apart from Nicky Henderson (with 2 wins), just 2 other UK trainers have saddled a winner so far! Unreal. Henderson runs 2 here, Champ and Santini and both have prospects of reaching the frame or achieving the ultimate. I’m pretty sure the ground will suit both, but I’m not convinced that they will both be bang there at the business end. Santini is looking ever more quirky and a little more ponderous, if anything these days, but at least he has an abundance of stamina, so the faster they go, surely the better it will suit him, but will he be quick enough? With Champ, I’m sure he has the ability to contend, the question is, does he have too much speed and will he truly stay? I consider him to be the best UK threat to the Irish anyway, just as long as he settles well, jumps as well as he can and can’t get up the hill at the end. I’d love nothing more than a Native River win, but if he is going to do that, he would need to join 1 other horse to regain the crown. Native River won this in 2018, was 4th 2019, missed last year’s race, but following a resounding win at Sandown 41 days ago, he does come here in good form. Can he do what Kauto Star did in 2009, which is to regain the crown, 2 years after winning it for the first time in 2007. It’s a tall ask for the admirable 11yo, but he will not go down without a fight. If Frodon gets an unlikely easy lead, he might go quite deep into the race, but he will face competition up front surely and that might not be ideal for him. Lostintranslation has lost the plot, Kemboy is not as effective round here, Aso and Black Op not good enough, the fly is the progressive Royal Pagaille. Beating handicappers in the mud, will be a far cry from what he faces later. He’s never encountered anything drier than very soft ground, so we are all guessing with him to tell you the truth. Going up and down Dale on good ground and in this class / company, how will he get on? Nobody knows how he will handle things, but we have to applaud his connections, for at least letting him take his chance. Good on them, I wish them and every runner, the best of luck. It should be a fascinating race. 

Verdict – looks like another one for the Irish MINELLA INDO each way for me.

Back to race the opening contest, a race for the Juveniles, The JCB Triumph Hurdle (2m1f) which is due off at 1:20.  8 runners.

The Irish are dominant this year, a lot more than ever it seems. The same names keep cropping up, the same people keep getting interviewed, it’s almost getting as boring as watching those old repeats on the BBC! I don’t see that changing in this opening contest either folks. Nope, I think the race trophy and prize money will head, like a vast majority have already done so, which is of course, across the Irish Sea. That is unless Alan King and his Tritonic, who was so impressive at Kempton last time out, unless he can really serve it up to them later. He does look a serious player anyway, at 10/3, I guess he has to be and he will relish the underfoot conditions, but he does face a mighty challenge from the boys in green. Quilixios is unbeaten in 4 starts, all on ground with some cut in it and he does seem to be getting better with each and every run. Will the ground prove a touch lively for him later I wonder? Possibly, but probably not. I have watched Zanahiyr through the season and think this youngster looks completely natural and will be a very useful recruit to the national hunt game. I’m not surprised that he is unbeaten (3 from 3) over hurdles and am not surprised to see him short priced favourite for this. He has a wonderful way of going about his business and I cannot fault his attitude at all so far. Although his wins have come on soft ground and they have been fairly impressive, he might be better still on decent ground. He won on this type of ground on the f**t, so I really can’t see that being an issue today. He is rightly the leading contender and will be very difficult to beat. Outside the top 3, Willie Mullins saddles a couple at big odds, but both Haut En Couleurs (1 run in France) and Tax For Max (ex German f**t, 1 run 2nd over hurdles Ireland), well they are both a little too difficult to fathom out. If there is to be a surprise, it could come from the Pipe runner Adagio, who already has 2 course wins here, but strictly on those form lines, he does appear to have his work cut out. You never know with these youngsters though I suppose! and he doesn’t have mountains of improvement to get involved. He has an each way chance but for me….

Verdict – No Bet  One of the leading trio at the head of the market will probably win, with the Jolly Zanahiyr being my prefered choice.

At 1:55, 26 runners will line up for The McCoy Contractors County Handicap Hurdle (2m1f) 26 runners

I have already given you a selection for this and thankfully, YOU RAISED ME UP has been declared to run. I fancy him to run a big race and will be disappointed if he doesn’t hit the box or get in the first half a dozen. Granted a little luck in running, off what should be (for once over hurdles), quite a strong pace and with the ground in his favour, I expect a big run. I can’t leave him on his own and not have an interest / saver on something else though can I, not in a race as competitive as this. All the leading candidates have a chance, those that interested me most were Champagne Gold (6/1 too short), ditto Ganpathi, Third Time Lucki and Eclair De Beaufeu (who is well treated, a touch quirky but has a very good chance). I think that Edwardstone and the improving quirky youngster Gowel Road (who was considered for a pick) can both go well, so too can Buildmeupbuttercup, Cayd Bay and maybe Ciel De Neige can too, if he fancies it later. I do throw the odd curveball at you folks and going to do so with my outside pick in this. To say my sneaky fancy for the quirky BELFAST BANTER running well in this with his sometimes errant ways, is a daft one, is probably an understatement, as I’m not he can win this on form, or even reach the frame for that matter. I always have methods in my madness though and these are my reasons for opting with him. For most this son of the late sire Jeremy, has only encountered very soft ground, certainly on his last 7 starts he has anyway (which did actually include his first win over hurdles) yet for me, he must have good ground. Back when he first raced, he was still in the same ownership, he was actually trained by Dan Skelton, who shot him to win a bumper on good to firm ground in the summer of 2019 It wasn’t a great contest, but he bounced off that ground. The owners took him across the Irish Sea later that year and since joining the capable Peter Fahey, apart from his first 3 outings over hurdles (maiden / novice races, placed all 3) he’s not had good ground since. In those first 3 races, everyone was kind of getting used to this quirky lad and those races didn’t really pan out to suit him. Basically, he is a very strong travelling type, that must be held up, get as much cover as he can and be delivered as late as possible. He hasn’t had that scenario yet in a big field handicap, certainly not on good ground anyway, but he does get that opportunity today. For what they are worth, he did threaten to get seriously involved in a valuable prize at Ascot in December (finish 5th of 17 there, beat just 7 lengths), the race won by Not So Sleepy, but heavy ground blunted his speed, he was just 2 lengths behind Skelton’s Third Time Lucki (level weights) up at Musselburgh on very soft ground, in the Scottish supreme novice hurdle in February (when they finished 4th and 6th respectively), yet he meets him on 14lb better terms today and he actually finished 3rd to my main fancy YOU RAISED ME UP (level weights, novice hurdle) at Listowel on soft ground last September (beaten just over 3 lengths) yet he meets him on 12lb better terms here as well. All those bits of form give him some sort of chance, but he is a quirky bugger that needs to be delivered late. I hope they go quick and this lad (along with my main fancy) will enjoy that and plenty of cover. His regular rider Kevin Sexton has plenty of experience and will know just what is required.  

Verdict and Selections – YOU RAISED ME UP main play and at much bigger odds BELFAST BANTER is worth a tiny poke .

The Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle (3m) is up next at 2:30. 17 runners.

I’m not a big fan of 3m hurdles as you all know, less so when they are novice contests. At this stage of any young horse’s career, they can be asked to do a little too much and asked to go a little too far for my liking. The results in the last 10 years will show you that absolutely anything can happen and very often does. Two favourites have won, plus a couple at single figure odds, but after that, you get 50/1, 33/1 (2) and plenty of others at double figures prices as well. I think this is always too hard a race to predict and more often than not (a lot more often) I would rather sit back and watch. For what it’s worth, I do feel that the Irish will probably win this race as well, but with which one? Kind of on my radar was Streets Of Doyen, who will love this drying ground and his defeat of Flooring Porter (was conceding 14lb) at Gowran Park in a handicap back in October, well that form has been properly advertised and enhanced since and by some. That horse won the Stayers Hurdle yesterday, so what chance Streets Of Doyen today, a great one I reckon but everyone has seen that and the bookmakers and betting public have reacted accordingly. He is still a reasonable enough price now at 6-7/1 I suppose, but roll back 24 hours, he would have been 18-20/1+. He is still in my mind, but I will not be advising him at that price now, not just because of his price, but I just don’t know how strong the opposition are either and that is the truth. Fakeira, Torygraph, Stattler and Vanillier are all promising Irish candidates, then from the UK, there is the Nicholls pair of Barbados Bucks and Threeunderthrufive (blimey, Nicholls needs a winner eh), who could both be very useful themselves and there are plenty of other potentially useful UK sorts as well, Adrimel and Alaphilippe spring to mind. It’s not a race I can get any sort of angle into folks, so I think I will sit this one out, if you don’t mind. Saying that, I might put a pound on a Mullins rag, for a bit of fun. I did have N’Golo (25/1) down as a potential improver for stepping up in trip and getting better ground, but that would have been in a handicap company and over 2m4f. How will he cope going from 2m to 3m and in graded company I have no idea! 2m on soft ground hasn’t really been his bag this season, but he has done alright as it happens, but did disappoint last time out. He is a bit of a fly in this, but too risky to select as well. 

Verdict – No Bet for me, not officially anyway.

Following the Gold Cup, at 3:40, we have The St James’s Place Festival Challenge Cup Open Hunters Chase (3m2f) 18 runners

This is usually considered to be the Gold Cup for Amatuer riders but as we all know, it’s going to be a little different this year and in my opinion, it’s not right and it’s just not the same. This used to be my favourite race of the festival, alongside The Gold Cup, as back in the day, I was a very keen Point-to-Point and Hunter Chase fan / punter. In recent times though, my life has changed and this tipping service has taken over my ways, much for the better too I must admit, Thanks to all my subscribers. Because of that, I have lost touch with the real Amatuer game and all I can say and comment on now, is what I see on the TV really, which doesn’t quite tell you enough. Generally speaking, most of these runners this year have run in a Hunter Chase at some point, but there is an awful lot of pointing form that I know absolutely nothing about. What I can say is that last year’s 1st, It Came To Pass, the 2nd, Billaway and the 4th, Staker Wallace, all return once again. This race is littered with dual winners down the years, so It Came To Pass has every chance of winning it once again. I actually gave him a good mention last year, but did not select him, much to me and my customers’ demise, because he returned at 66/1 !  He had his conditions for the first time in ages back then, but AI knew very little / nothing of the girl on board and couldn’t really make a clear case or him. Well I could this year, on the back of that success, but at 8/1 this time, again I will leave that decision up to you. The difference between last year and this, will obviously be the riders. When the Amateurs ride, it is always an end to end gallop (it was frantic last year, end to end), with the professionals aboard, I have a feeling it could be a lot more restrained this time. This means a different race, perhaps and maybe a completely different result too, who knows. I think It Came To Pass will go close again, now the ground has dried out, but Billaway will not be 10 lengths back this time and Staker Wallace will probably be a lot closer than 20 lengths in arrears this time too. Others to consider are Stand Up And Fight, Red Indian, if he stays, the 2019 winner Hazel Hill, whoi still retains plenty of ability at the grand old age of 13, but for betting purposes, I would consider the Paul Nicholls (won this 4 times) trained runner Bob N Co (ground maybe a touch lively perhaps), It Came To Pass once again, or the Paul Nicholls part owned CHAMERON, who had to work hard for his debut hunter chase win at Leicester 29 days ago. He is trained next door (I believe) to Nicholls yard down at Ditcheat in Zumerset, by Sam, the husband of the late Rose Loxton, who very sadly lost her battle with cancer in August last year. She was an integral part of the Nicholls set up and I believe his secretary for some time as well. Nicholls owns a 50% share in this 8yo, who came over from France as a 4yo way back in 2017, joined the Nicholls national hunt team then, but has had all sorts of issues since. He was barely seen on the racecourse for Paul (only ran 6 times in 2 years for him) and looked a bit of a disappointment to tell you the truth. The owners gave up on him, but Paul did not. He acquired himself, with another early in 2020 and sent him pointing with Rose Loxton. He didn’t disappoint winning 2 Open races at Larkhill (a premier UK venue), both on good ground and both in quite emphatic sty;le as well. Last season was curtailed, as was this season, but he showed up at Leicester on the 18th February and was expected to win comfortably, if the betting gave away any clues (10/11fav). He traveled and jumped like he was head and shoulders above anything else and looked set to win very easily, but an error 3 from home meant he had to work a little harder than was ideal. Still, he got the job done. What that form is worth, is very debatable, but he showed me enough class during the race anyway, to warrant some respect in bigger and better contests. The issues are, 3m2f will he stay, will he cope with Cheltenham, can he cope with a big field of runners (there were 15 at Leicester), will these fences prove too much and lastly but most importantly, is he really good enough?? I don’t know the answer to all of those, but Harry Cobden has chosen to ride him, when maybe, he could have ridden the 2nd best Bob N Co who is just 9/2! I’m having and advising a very small bet only folks, he is over or around 20/1 at the end of the day. I am struggling to find us another bet today, to tell you the truth. If this lad wins anyway, there will be no more poignant victory all year and I very much doubt that even the big man Paul Nicholls will be able to contain himself.  I just hope he runs well, a place will be nice and win a big bonus, honestly.  

Verdict – I do feel that last year’s 1st and 2nd, It Came To Pass and Billaway, yep, both from Ireland, they hold the strongest claims, but a small bet on CHAMERON won’t hurt the bank.

The first ever running of The Mrs Paddy Power Mares Chase (2m4f127yds) is up next at 4:15. 11 runners.

Again, this is very much likely to be Irish dominated and by some very familiar names. Willie Mullins is quieter than usual at his festival, compared to normal nyway, but he should land this prize. He saddles both the fav Elimay and the 2nd best in Colreevy and if that’s not enough, he saddles a couple of the outsiders, just in case as well. At a shade of odds on, I’m not playing Elimay, at 7/2, as much as I like her chances, I’m not playing Colreevy either. If they fail, the Irish have plenty of other candidates anyway. Shattered Love (won marsh chase in 2018 here) and Magic Of Light (Grand National 2nd in 2019, fancied to go well again in that race this year) they are quality mares in their own right, but may not be able to keep tabe with the Mullins charges here. What chance a UK win, little or none I’d say. Cut The Mustard is 100/1, yet is trained by Nicholls! Chilli Filli might outrun her odds of 66/1, as too might Really Super, as they should cope with the ground, but the Irish mares should have the class to take care of them really. 

Verdict – No Bet

To end the festival at 4:50, it’s The Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle (2m4f) 24 runners

I wish the festival would end on a better contest to be honest folks. This race is usually a notoriously difficult race to fathom out and is not the highest standard handicap to the meeting either, it always attracts plenty of unexposed young horses (most like this year are from Ireland!) and plenty of overexposed older types as well. I usually fancy about 6 or 7 for this race every year and it’s more or less the same this time around. It looks and is impossible folks, it’s the kind of race to pick a couple at very big odds, sit back and pray they just get involved, which is what I’m going to do. The Irish have so many potential winners here, but working what they have so far achieved over hurdles, is extremely difficult indeed. Take the once raced in Ireland (2 runs in France) and favorite Gentlemen Du Mee, he is impossible to assess, yet is just 3/1! I thought I found one with Gbuanako, who will like the ground, but having been 8-10/1yesterday, I’m not bothered if he wins at 4/1 now. They both have leading claims, if the betting is anything to go by and let’s face it, the betting hasn’t been a bad guide with the Irish runners this week, they have bloody well cleaned up, no wonder we can’t get a bet on!  Anyway, other Irish runners with a chance are, well all of them no doubt, it depends who’s been holding back!  Keep an eye on the betting will all of them. I’m actually going to bet 2 UK runners at big odds, just for a bit of fun, as I can’t work out which of those Irish runners are the ones to be with at bigger and better odds. All their form is on soft / heavy ground as well, so it makes things doubly difficult to work out. I will keep this short, as I’m running out of both time and space, AMOUR DE NUIT and EGLANTINE DE SEUIL are both trained by Paul Nicholls and are both relatively well enough exposed, but they will both relish the underfoot conditions today, the trip is ideal for them, the track shouldn’t be an issue (the latter won the mares races here in 2019 at 50/1) and they have both run well enough off the marks they have today, but on the wrong ground conditions on their most recent starts. This is not a betting race as i see it folks, but this duo worth £2e/w. 

Verdict – As I just said, I think the Irish might once again dominate, but AMOUR DE NUIT and EGLANTINE DE SEUIL just might outrun their odds and are worth a little tiny play.

Recap

CHELTENHAM

1:55 – BELFAST BANTER (2/10 E/W) 33/1+

My ratings are 1-10 so 2/10 is 1ptEW

3:05 – MINELLA INDO (5/10 E/W) 8/1

My ratings are 1-10 so 5/10 is 2.5ptsEW

3:40 – CHAMERON (3/10 E/W) 20/1+

My ratings are 1-10 so 3/10 is 1.5ptsEW

4:50 – AMOUR DE NUIT (2/10 E/W) 50/1-66/1

My ratings are 1-10 so 2/10 is 1ptEW

4:50 – EGLANTINE DU SEUIL (2/10 E/W) 28/1

My ratings are 1-10 so 2/10 is 1ptEW

Already advised :

1.55 – YOU RAISED ME UP (5/10 E/W)16/1 he is 13/2 best now

Odds available when email sent:

• Belfast Banter, Cheltenham @ 13:55 (1.00 points Each Way @ 40/1 from Bet365, Betfair Sportsbook, PaddyPower)
• Minella Indo, Cheltenham @ 15:05 (2.50 points Each Way @ 17/2 from Unibet)
• Chameron, Cheltenham @ 15:40 (1.50 points Each Way @ 25/1 from Betfred, BetVictor, Boylesports)
• Amour De Nuit, Cheltenham @ 16:50 (1.00 points Each Way @ 66/1 from Bet365, Betfair Sportsbook, PaddyPower)
• Eglantine Du Seuil, Cheltenham @ 16:50 (1.00 points Each Way @ 33/1 from Bet365)

 

 

James Fay Founding Partner T +44(0)20 7422 2978 M +44 (0)7500 988 788 E james.fay@archr.com 49 Carnaby Street, London, W1F 9PY United Kingdom ARCHR.COM

 

 

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