Friday, 11 July, 2025
ECB’s Schnabel Calls Bar for Another Cut Very High
- European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said there’d have to be a major downward shift in inflation to justify another reduction in borrowing costs.
- Schnabel said “the bar for another rate cut is very high” and that there would only be a case for another rate cut if inflation deviates from the target over the medium term.
- Schnabel said she sees no risk of a sustained undershooting of inflation over the medium term, and that core inflation is projected to be at target over the entire projection horizon.
European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said there’d have to be a major downward shift in inflation to justify another reduction in borrowing costs.
In an interview with Econostream, Schnabel said interest rates are “in a good place,” with disinflation proceeding broadly as expected and the 20-nation economy proving resilient.
“The bar for another rate cut is very high,” she was quoted as saying in the interview, which was conducted July 9. “There would only be a case for another rate cut if we saw signs of a material deviation of inflation from our target over the medium term. And at the moment, I see no signs of that.”
Isabel Schnabel
With inflation hovering around its 2% goal, the ECB is planning to keep rates on hold when it meets later this month. Officials haven’t closed the door to further cuts, though most have said they want to see how the economy develops before taking any more steps.
Some, including Finland’s Olli Rehn and France’s Francois Villeroy de Galhau, are concerned that price gains will fall below the target, especially if the euro keeps strengthening against the dollar. Others are also worried about growth, with French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou even issuing a rare critique of the central bank on Thursday by saying the ECB should do more to support the economy.
“I see no risk of a sustained undershooting of inflation over the medium term,” Schnabel said. “Core inflation is projected to be at target over the entire projection horizon. The low energy price inflation is likely to be temporary, and the fear of the exchange rate appreciation putting downward pressure on underlying inflation is exaggerated in my view.”
A key uncertainty is the future trade relationship with the US. Donald Trump has been pushing forward with his aggressive tariff regime by announcing rates that will become effective in August. An announcement on the European Union, which is seeking to lock in the current 10% rate, is expected to arrive shortly.