“CL dropped by $ 10 from $68 to $58 and more importantly front TS flipped from b/wardation to negative. (See below) – This is the single most important market for equities today. While there are many narratives circulating, the velocity of the move was technical. I have been saying it for weeks, speculative positioning was getting v bullish and lots of bets added near the top. But also, there was a wall of OI positioning at $65 and as the price fell from $68, late CTAs were quick to cut and a spiral of negative gamma delta hedging created this mini crash. It’s critical for the market to hold the $60 and the gamma profile supports this. But there is another wall of OI @ $60 and if it breaks decisively below, another drop can follow. This will be key to all risk assets. This is where the $ becomes the largest arbitrator of what will lie ahead. With renewed weakness on the back of all EM CB tightening, $CL could find some footing and ease pressure on risk. That would be my central case here. But all still v fragile.”