All firms below expect a 25bp hike on 16 September unless noted otherwise (Jefferies is the exception, still calling for a hold).

 

Vote Count

• The three July hawkish dissenters (Hammack, Logan, Kashkari) are seen as locks to support a hike, especially given the recent move in energy markets.
• At least 3 of the other 9 voters (the Philly and NY Fed presidents plus the 7 Board Governors) would need to join them to pass 25bp.
• If there’s a dovish dissent, Williams and Bowman are seen as the most likely candidates.
• Bowman, Jefferson and Powell haven’t been heard from publicly since the July meeting.
• JPMorgan’s own base case is no dissents, but flags that a no-hike scenario would likely see the same three hawkish dissents as July.

 

DOTs & SEP Expectations

• June’s 2026 median dot was 3.75% (9 officials penciling in a hike this year, 6 penciling in 2+ hikes); the 2027 dot was 3.625%.
• SEP macro expectations: 2026 GDP roughly unchanged to 0.1pp higher; core PCE uncertain given incoming methodology changes; headline PCE possibly up to 3.7% on higher energy prices; unemployment rate possibly dipping to 4.2%.
• Only 18 (of 19) SEP submissions were made in June, as Warsh opted out.

 

Street Views

Firm	Stance (paraphrased)	Statement/Dissents	SEP/Dot Plot (2026/27/28/29/LR)	Future action
ABN Amro	Had expected a hold through 2026, but the August CPI print weakened the case for patience enough to shift the view to a hike, with December looking more likely too.	—	—	25bp Sep, more likely Dec
ANZ	Revised to a 75bp mini-tightening cycle starting this meeting rather than December, after the August inflation data. Expects Warsh to give no forward guidance.	—	—	25bp Sep, Oct, Dec
Barclays	Expects the hike decision to be contentious internally. Sees Warsh reiterating his Jackson Hole line that disinflation hasn’t been clear or fast enough.	1 dovish dissent (Waller, possibly Bowman)	3.9 / 3.9 / 3.6 / 3.4 / 3.1	25bp Sep & Dec, 25bp cut Dec 2027
BMO	Argues the real question is whether the neutral rate has risen, not just whether inflation cooled enough — they think it has risen.	At least one dissent for hold	1 hike this year, returning to 3.1% over horizon	25bp Sep & Dec
BNY Mellon	Sees two-to-three hikes over the coming months, possibly extending into 2027, before cuts resume in H2 2027 as inflation and growth slow.	—	—	2-3 hikes into 2027, cuts H2 2027
BofA	Warns of a sharp long-end yield reaction if the Fed doesn’t hike given the backdrop. Flags a difficult balancing act for Warsh in the press conference between signalling more tightening vs. reassuring markets.	1 dissent (Waller)	4.1 / 3.9 / 3.4 / 3.1 / 3.1	25bp Sep, Oct, Dec
CIBC	Thinks doves have likely come around given bond yields, a strong jobs report, firmer core CPI and rising oil prices; sees Warsh unwilling to be an early dissenting minority.	—	—	—
Citi	Expects the Committee to still pencil in cooling inflation and gradual cuts from 2027, underlining that this hike isn’t the start of a sustained tightening run.	Up to 2 dissents	4.1 / 3.9 / 3.4 / — / 3.1	25bp Sep, cuts resume H2 2027
Commerzbank	Notes Waller had signalled the Fed would need to respond if disinflation stalled in August — which is what happened — making a hike more likely now.	—	—	25bp Sep (upgraded from prior hold call)
Danske	Base case remains unchanged rates, though acknowledges a hike is clearly possible given ~85% market pricing and rising energy prices; flags risk to their long-standing December-hike call.	—	—	Hold (base case), risk of Sep hike
Desjardins	August data was broadly in line with expectations but rising (especially diesel) fuel prices and labour market resilience support a hike, though bond yields are already doing some tightening work.	—	—	25bp Sep
Deutsche (Luzzetti/Ryan/Weidner/Yang)	Sees a strong case for a hike given solid growth, a rebounding labour market and limited evidence of inflation falling back to target; not clear policy is sufficiently restrictive. Per ITC’s note, DB expects the only statement change to be the rate decision itself, with the SEP showing a slightly stronger growth outlook and some participants projecting 3+ hikes across 2026-27.	No changes; possible dissents Waller/Bowman	4.1 / 3.9 / 3.6 / 3.4 / 3.2	25bp Sep, Dec, Mar
DNB	Very close call, but the marginally higher-than-expected inflation reading plus elevated energy prices tip them toward a precautionary hike.	—	—	25bp Sep
Goldman Sachs (Mericle)	Flipped to expecting a hike (from a prior hold call), largely because the Fed will want to avoid the market reaction from disappointing ~90% priced-in hike odds — not because the economic case has changed. Still doesn’t see a strong economic case for hiking, viewing the overshoot as one-off/tariff-driven. Expects a 10-8 majority for just one hike in the dot median, with risk of a majority for two if more members than expected treat this as the start of a series.	No changes	3.9 / 3.6 / 3.4	Sees risk of hike but no strong case for further hikes signalled
ING	Unusually, expects this to be a “one and done” hike rather than the start of a series.	—	3.9 / 3.9 / 3.6 / 3.4 / 3.1	25bp Sep only
JPMorgan (Feroli)	Thinks it’s a closer call than markets are pricing, but sees the Chair’s repeated hawkish warnings as needing to be backed by action to preserve credibility. Per ITC’s note, JPM’s risk scenario for a no-hike outcome would still see three hawkish dissents; looks for the dot median to point to a 4.0-4.25% year-end target (i.e., one more hike after Sep), with the extended 2029 dot and a longer-run dot revised up to 3.25% or higher.	No dissents	4.1 / 3.9 / 3.6 / 3.4 / 3.25	25bp Sep & Dec
Jefferies	Outlier: still expects no hike at all this year, with the next move being a December cut — though acknowledges this is now a longshot view.	—	—	25bp cut in Dec
Morgan Stanley	Baseline shifted from cuts by end-2027 toward a possible hike; the August CPI surprise pushed them to consider 50-75bp of hikes if the data stays firm, though core PCE still points to disinflation underneath.	—	—	Leaning toward hike, some chance “one and done”
MUFG	Views a hike as a possible policy error but sees inaction as risky given Warsh’s “inflation is a choice” framing.	—	—	25bp Sep & Dec (55-60% probability of Dec hike)
Natixis	Sees fence-sitting voters as having put the burden of proof on encouraging data to avoid a hike — and this month’s data didn’t clear that bar.	—	—	25bp Sep, possibly one more
NatWest	Flags upside risk from energy price pass-through and AI-driven demand as reasons the CPI strength can’t be dismissed.	No dissents	4.1 / 3.6 / 3.1 / — / 3.1	25bp Sep, easing begins Q2 2027
Nomura (Amemiya)	Warns a dovish surprise could add volatility given how sensitive rates markets already are to inflation and Fed credibility concerns. Per ITC’s note, cites Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole turn, elevated August core PCE estimates and the oil price spike as justifying tightening; expects only a slight downward revision to 2026 inflation dots (methodology-driven) alongside hawkish revisions to growth/unemployment.	No dissents (Bowman possible)	4.1 / 4.1 / 3.9 / 3.4 / 3.1	25bp Sep & Dec
Rabobank	Thinks one hike should suffice to anchor inflation expectations given the current inflation spell is largely supply-driven, though flags a risk the hike slips to October.	—	—	25bp Sep, cuts Apr/Jul/Oct 2027
RBC (Gwinn)	Expects three hikes total this year (including Sep), effectively reversing the 75bp of “insurance cuts” delivered at end-2025. Per ITC’s note, RBC had long called for a hold through 2026 but flipped after August’s core CPI print (0.29% m/m) and the highest supercore reading since January — arguing the hike decision has become more about narrative than pure data at this point.	—	—	25bp Sep, Oct, Dec
Scotiabank	Believes Warsh has boxed himself in via his deference to market pricing; thinks hiking would actually be a policy error since inflation and labour risks are overstated.	—	—	—
SEB	Expects one “credibility-strengthening” hike in September, followed by cuts starting fall 2027 — though a further December hike is possible if inflation trends don’t improve.	—	—	25bp Sep, two cuts in 2027-28
Societe Generale (Groen)	Sees the Committee split between a camp expecting core inflation to cool materially in H2 and a camp (including Williams, Waller) that has effectively set a reaction function requiring a hike if core PCE doesn’t converge. Per ITC’s note, cites persistent elevated underlying PCE inflation and a firm August PPI supercore print as supporting the hike call; expects Warsh’s press conference to stress that inflation progress hasn’t been convincing enough while avoiding forward guidance on further moves.	Statement language expected to shift to acknowledge persistent overshoot	4.1 / 4.1 / 3.9 / — / 3.3	25bp Sep, Dec, Mar
Swedbank	Sees the hike as a “one-off,” still viewing the underlying inflation trend as favourable.	—	—	25bp Sep only
TD	Had expected the “data-dependent” camp to prevail on continued disinflation, but now sees more reasons for inflation staying sticky than reasons for it to normalise.	Bowman to dissent	4.1 / 4.1 / 3.4 / 3.4 / 3.1	25bp Sep, Oct, Jan
UBS	Notes that if Warsh believed his own Jackson Hole framework, he logically should have hiked earlier — thinks he now needs to back up the rhetoric with action.	Waller & Bowman to dissent	3.9 / 3.9 / 3.4 / 3.4 / 3.1	25bp Sep & Dec, cuts Jun 2027, Mar/Jun 2028
Unicredit	Thinks a hike is likely but not a done deal given ongoing uncertainty about the Fed’s reaction function.	—	—	25bp Sep & Dec
Wells Fargo (Porcelli)	Views “one and done” as an odd outcome economically, but acknowledges Warsh’s calculus could be to demonstrate willingness to act with limited growth impact; base case is two hikes but one-and-done can’t be ruled out. Per ITC’s note, doesn’t expect big SEP changes to growth/unemployment/inflation forecasts (core PCE medians of 3.3%/2.5% for 2026/27 look about right), and expects the 2026 dot to move to 4.125% signalling one more hike before year-end.	—	4.1 / 3.9 / 3.4 / — / 3.1	Two 25bp hikes over coming months
Westpac	Thinks the Committee needs to be seen reacting to market concerns and providing clearer guidance into 2027.	—	—	25bp Sep & Q4, two cuts in 2028
Wrightson ICAP (Crandall)	Cautious about calling it a done deal — notes Warsh avoided drawing hard lines at Jackson Hole and wants an open-minded Committee, but the data and tone point toward a hike. Per ITC’s note, expects the dot median to shift up again but more moderately than last quarter, pointing to just one hike this year (implying no further moves at the Oct/Dec meetings) — though the full distribution should still carry a hawkish skew, signalling the Committee is alert to the possible need for further tightening even if the median doesn’t show it.	—	2026 median dot 3.9%; expects a full SEP forecast set produced this round	—

 

 

James Fay Founding Partner T +44(0)20 7422 2978 M +44 (0)7500 988 788 E james.fay@archr.com 27 Oxford Street London, W1D 2DP United Kingdom ARCHR.COM

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