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SPAIN: ***What do Game Theorists say about the…..
SPAIN: ***What do Game Theorists say about the Catalan situation?
– An essay written about the previous stand-off in 2012 by Jaume Vives, "The Catalan Secession Process at the Light of Game Theory" still has a lot of insight for today. The discussion was about whether Spain would allow a non-binding referendum, which is a step that has already occurred but least it gives a way to think about the topic.
– To summarise this paper, Spain does not know whether Catalonia is determined (strong) about independence or wants a favourable fiscal agreement (weak). This incomplete information introduces uncertainty but the "conclusion attained through the analysis of the refined game is that Catalonia is less likely to achieve independence if she is believed to be strong with high enough probability and the EU would reject Catalonia’s entry".
– Not 100% applicable but still interesting for today is a scenario in which Catalonia asks for negotiations after a non-binding referendum (page 11). According to the report, it shows that Catalonia is weak because a logical follow up is a binding referendum if they were strong.
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