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Tuesday, 15 June, 2021

The contrasting price action for copper/oil

The contrasting price action for copper/oil is accelerating this morning. Copper is making new monthly lows after edging through strong support levels while oil is making new monthly highs. This divergence has been a theme over the last few weeks causing breakevens to stagnate. The recent squeeze and subsequent rebalancing of positioning in combination with more attractive levels have strengthened the case to be short duration here, especially in light of last weeks CPI print. The ceiling on breakevens along with a steepening yield curve embodies the markets view of transitory inflation and sets the tone for an increase in real yields over the coming weeks. A move higher in real yields seems the most likely villain to the continuing euphoria in equities and like selling AUDJPY and XAU to position for such an event

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