@NickTimiraos · 5m Rates unchanged FOMC statement gets a big rewrite. Tightening bias gone, but in a way that says a cut isn’t necessarily imminent. “The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate” to cut “until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably” to 2% Read More
Terry McCrann – The new RBA governor is not looking for any excuse to impose further rates pain. Relax – new RBA governor Michelle Bullock is not looking for any excuse under the sun to raise rates. October 17, 2023 – 5:31PM https://www.heraldsun.com.au/business/the-new-rba-governor-is-not-looking-for-any-excuse-to-impose-further-rates-pain/news-story/38440ba5f9ebec8524065fbfbeb645b1 No, new Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock is not itching – desperately, desperately, wanting an excuse, any excuse – to pull her shiny new interest rate lever. […] Read More
Terry McCrann – The odds are good that interest rates will stay on hold on Melbourne Cup Day Read between the lines – it would take a seriously high CPI number to bring a rate hike onto the agenda on Cup Day. October 19, 2023 – 5:03PM https://www.heraldsun.com.au/business/the-odds-are-good-that-interest-rates-will-stay-on-hold-on-melbourne-cup-day/news-story/0141b49f4ef67d3ffa5aa08d78121d13 Understanding Michele, the other seven directors of the Reserve Bank, interest rates, and what’s happening in the Australian and broader global economies. […] Read More
The global economy will perform better than many expect in 2024 Published on 10 NOV 2023 Topic: OUTLOOKS Goldman Sachs Research expects the global economy to outperform expectations in 2024 — just as it did in 2023. That outlook is based on our economists’ prediction for strong income growth (amid cooling inflation and a robust job market), their expectation that rate hikes have already delivered their biggest hits to GDP growth, and their view that […] Read More
Lower inflation figures in the US spell good news for us There are simply no downsides for us from the US reporting lower inflation figures. That doesn’t mean that catastrophe is not looming though. Terry McCrann November 15, 2023 – 5:05PM https://www.heraldsun.com.au/business/terry-mccrann/lower-inflation-figures-in-the-us-spell-good-news-for-us/news-story/09461f26e5b38f7def077bcb80d20464 At last some unambiguously, unqualified good news – especially for us. That’s to say, there are simply no downsides for us – and indeed for most of the […] Read More
{US} Roll Update US Ultra Long 2% complete We are neutral the WN calendar spread 100:98.24 {WNWN Comdty gip10} 30yr 4% complete We are slightly bullish the US roll 100:100 {usus Comdty gip10} 10yr 3% complete We are slightly bullish the TY roll as positioning remains unchanged and the previous rolls richened in the last week of the roll month 100:99.6 {tyty Comdty gip10} Ultra 10yr 4% complete slightly bullish the UXY roll given the […] Read More
{US} Roll Update – 30th Nov is first notice All rolls at/close to their lows, makes decent rolling for shorts US Ultra Long -29.5/-29.25 at the lows, chunky roll yesterday 19% complete We are neutral the WN calendar spread 100:98.24 {WNWN Comdty gip10} 30yr -01.75/-01.5 also at its recent lows 24% complete We are slightly bullish the US roll 100:100 {usus Comdty gip10} 10yr -12.5/-12.25 tight range thus far not much movement 21% complete We […] Read More
Ashley Joye (ARCHR LLP ) Subject: FW: (BN) Australia’s Inflation Test Is More ‘Homegrown,’ RBA Chief Says *AUSTRALIA CENTRAL BANK GOVERNOR BULLOCK COMMENTS IN SPEECH TEXT *BULLOCK: `I AM 100% BEHIND’ CHANGES RECOMMENDED BY RBA REVIEW *BULLOCK: RBA STILL SEEKING TO TREAD `NARROW PATH’ ON POLICY *BULLOCK: RBA AIMS TO SLOW DEMAND GROWTH TO BRING DOWN INFLATION *BULLOCK: MORE SUBSTANTIAL TIGHTENING IS RIGHT POLICY RESPONSE *BULLOCK: INFLATION CHALLENGE NOW MORE HOMEGROWN, DEMAND-DRIVEN Australia’s […] Read More
BOJ Sources – Softening consumption may delay BOJ’s exit from easy policy https://www.channelnewsasia.com/business/softening-consumption-may-delay-bojs-exit-easy-policy-3975161 Source: Reuters TOKYO : Recent weakness in consumption has emerged as a fresh source of concern for Bank of Japan policymakers who are eyeing an exit from negative interest rates, three sources familiar with its thinking said, suggesting market expectations of an imminent rate hike may be over-blown. The yen and Japanese bond yields have jumped on market expectations of […] Read More
Fed Holds Rates Steady and Sees Cuts Next Year Officials don’t rule out further hikes while penciling in three rate cuts in 2024 By Nick Timiraos Dec. 13, 2023 2:02 pm ET {https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/fed-holds-rates-steady-and-sees-cuts-next-year-4d554e9f} WASHINGTON—The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady and signaled inflation had improved more rapidly than anticipated, opening the door to rate cuts next year. Most officials penciled in three interest rate cuts for 2024 in projections released after their two-day meeting on […] Read More
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