Thursday, 16 January, 2025
The front-end of the Treasury market is getting a bit of support from Fed Governor Waller, who’s noting the possibility of more rate cuts and a move as soon as March. Traders are also adding a few more basis points to pricing for reductions to borrowing costs this year, though it largely remains intact for one quarter-point cut fully priced and another with a probability greater than 50%. That’s probably all the reaction that Waller’s […] Read More
Wednesday, 15 January, 2025
JPMORGAN (JPM US) out early… Again credit loss provisions lower than expected. Rev and NII are a beat. Deposits in line. FICC trading ahead, Equities miss. Talking resilient economy. JPM +2% premkt Read More
Tuesday, 14 January, 2025
From Policy Shifts to Credit Risks: What Lies Ahead in 2025 2025 begins amid heightened global uncertainty, with the incoming Trump administration poised to drive market volatility and reshape economic policies. Key questions remain about the effectiveness of US fiscal discipline and the implications for bond yields and asset markets. Diverging global trends—rising bond yields in the US versus declining yields in China—highlight the complexity of the current environment. Meanwhile, Australia faces unique challenges, from […] Read More
Tuesday, 07 January, 2025
PMorgan’s Treasury Client Survey for the week through Jan. 6 showed shorts rose 6ppts, longs increased 8ppts and neutrals dropped 14ppts. The all-client survey now shows the most outright longs and fewest neutrals since Dec. 4 2023. All clients (Jan. 6 vs Dec. 16) Long: 30 vs 22 Neutral: 55 vs 69 Short: 15 vs 9 Net longs: 15 vs 13 Active clients Long: 33 vs 22 Neutral: 34 vs 78 Short: 33 vs 0 […] Read More
Tuesday, 07 January, 2025
NATWEST year ahead NatWest’s top themes related to fixed income and yield curves for the year ahead are as follows: Fiscal’s Long-COVID and Its Impact on Yields: The continuation of large fiscal deficits is expected to keep upward pressure on interest rates, affecting the level of yields and the shape of yield curves. This fiscal pressure, termed as “fiscal’s long-COVID,” is anticipated to play a significant role in determining the direction of fixed income markets. […] Read More
Wednesday, 11 December, 2024
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Wednesday, 11 December, 2024
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Tuesday, 10 December, 2024
{AU} Westpac’s Luci Ellis “RBA remains on hold, slowly gaining confidence” “….in the media conference, the Governor conceded that there were scenarios in which the Board ended up cutting in February, while prudently choosing not to describe one. In acknowledging that reality, the RBA has clearly tilted the probabilities back towards an earlier start date for the rate-cutting phase than where it stood a few weeks ago. It does not, however, shift that balance of […] Read More
Wednesday, 27 November, 2024
Another 50bp in February more likely than not The RBNZ delivered the expected 50bp cut and looks set to continue at this pace in February. We now see a 50bp cut to 3.75% as more likely than not at the February Monetary Policy Statement. The RBNZ cut the OCR by 50bps to 4.25% at its final policy meeting for this year. The RBNZ’s OCR forecast profile was revised down as expected and now shows the […] Read More
Tuesday, 26 November, 2024
A Bank of Canada official said policymakers are aiming to keep inflation near their 2% target, and pushed back on the idea that officials should slow price gains further or cause deflation. Deputy Governor Rhys Mendes said it was reasonable to expect further cuts to interest rates if inflation and the economy continues to evolve as forecast but said that the timing and pace of further cuts would be guided by incoming data. He offered […] Read More
