Thursday, 06 March, 2025
Archr News Update
*ECB: BECOMING MEANINGFULLY LESS RESTRICTIVE AS THE INTEREST RATE CUTS ARE MAKING NEW BORROWING LESS EXPENSIVE FOR FIRMS AND Read More
Wednesday, 05 March, 2025
Archr News Update
{GE} Commerz: Yesterday decisions mean that the debt level relative to gross domestic product (2024: 63.4%) will rise sharply in the coming years – by around ten percentage points due to the new special fund alone. If spending on defence were to rise to 3.5% of GDP, the debt level would increase by an additional 2.5% percentage points each year. In ten years, the general gov debt ratio could have risen to 90%, although this […] Read More
Tuesday, 04 March, 2025
Archr News Update
A recent study by Palisade Research reveals a troubling trend—advanced AI models are learning to cheat. When faced with impossible odds, OpenAI’s o1 and DeepSeek’s R1 manipulated system files to alter chess positions against Stockfish, a top chess engine. When asked why, o1 justified its actions, stating the goal was to win, not necessarily play fair. This isn’t an isolated case. Other studies show AI engaging in deception, even manipulating math problems to avoid test […] Read More
Friday, 28 February, 2025
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate)
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -1.5 percent on February 28, down from 2.3 percent on February 19. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth fell from -0.41 percentage points to -3.70 percentage points while the nowcast of first-quarter real personal […] Read More
Monday, 24 February, 2025
EU Rates Roundup
Citigroup Likes Buying EU Vs France: EU Rates Roundup Strategists at Citigroup favor buying EU debt againstFrench peers to fade the former’s underperformance, whileanalysts at Natixis prefer a trade which focuses on thepotential for discrepancies on the EU curve. Citigroup: (strategists including Aman Bansal)* Recommends buying 30-year EU versus France given the limitedrole of the EU in joint borrowing for defense might help reversesome of the recent underperformance against OATs. Contributionsare seen capped at the […] Read More
Tuesday, 11 February, 2025
Powell Says Fed Doesn’t Need to Rush on Rate Cuts — WSJ
(Wall Street Journal) — WASHINGTON — Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivered a simple message to Congress to start two days of testimony on Tuesday: Because the economy is doing well, the Fed can take its time to decide when and whether to lower interest rates. The central bank cut interest rates at its last three meetings of 2024 by a full percentage point after holding rates near a two-decade high. “With our policy stance […] Read More
Tuesday, 11 February, 2025
Fwd:FW: FT – UK inflation less of a threat as corporate pricing power weakens, says BoE official
UK inflation less of a threat as corporate pricing power weakens, says BoE official Former MPC hawk Mann said a half-point cut in interest rates had been needed last week to ‘cut through the noise’ Sam Fleming and Chris Giles in London 7 hours ago https://www.ft.com/content/b2496ab1-a07f-447d-9675-32f14fe4f1fe Companies will struggle to raise prices this year as consumers are hit by job losses and spending softens, according to a Bank of England rate-setter […] Read More
Friday, 07 February, 2025
Archr News Update
*BOE’S PILL: WE ARE NOT THERE YET ON DISINFLATION *BOE’S PILL: CAUTION AGAINST VERY RAPID, VERY LARGE FUTURE CUTS *BOE’S PILL: ON OTHER SIDE, ACTIVITY WEAKER THAN EXPECTED *BOE’S PILL: UNDERLYING PRICE PRESSURES REMAIN ELEVATED *BOE’S PILL: CPI BLIP PROBABLY WON’T HAVE SECOND-ROUND EFFECTS *BOE’S PILL: THERE ARE RISKS TO BOTH SIDES ON INFLATION *BOE’S PILL: PRIVATE-SECTOR WAGE GROWTH SURPRISING *BOE’S PILL: REASONS FOR CAUTION, CAREFULNESS IN WAY WE PROCEED *BOE’S PILL: PAY DISINFLATION NOT […] Read More
Friday, 07 February, 2025
AFR – Meet the most accurate economic forecaster of 2024
AFR – Meet the most accurate economic forecaster of 2024 Cecile Lefort – Markets reporter Updated Feb 3, 2025 – 9.42pm, first published at 8.00pm https://www.afr.com/markets/debt-markets/meet-the-most-accurate-economic-forecaster-of-2024-20250131-p5l8os Australia’s top economist Paul Bloxham predicts United States President Donald Trump’s tariff war will test the economy, and the Reserve Bank will be capable of only moderate interest rate cuts in 2025. The HSBC Australia chief economist was ranked by The Australian Financial Review […] Read More
Wednesday, 29 January, 2025
Bank of Canada Cuts Rates, Warns of Economic Shock From Trade Conflict
-The Bank of Canada on Wednesday cut its benchmark rate for a sixth straight time, and warned of a significant shock to the economy from a U.S.-Canada trade conflict with tariffs of up to 25%. Canada’s central bank lowered its policy rate by a quarter-point to 3%, as widely expected in a survey of economists last week by The Wall Street Journal. In its decision, the Bank of Canada said a recent rebound, fueled by […] Read More
