Tuesday, 26 November, 2024
*BOC REPEATS FURTHER CUTS LIKELY, TIMING, PACE DEPEND ON DATA *MENDES: CPI BELOW 2% WOULD HARM ECONOMY, INFLATION EXPECTATIONS *MENDES DEFENDS PAST BOC RATE HIKES, EXPLAINS WHY 2% TARGET KEY *BOC: ANCHORED CPI EXPECTATIONS PREVENTED LONG INFLATION BATTLE *BANK OF CANADA’S RHYS MENDES SPEAKS IN PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND *MENDES: BOC RATE HIKES WERE CENTRAL TO RESTORING LOW INFLATION *MENDES: BOC MUST ‘STICK LANDING,’ ENSURE CPI STABILIZES AT 2% *BOC’s Mendes: Timing, Pace of Cuts Hinges […] Read More
Monday, 25 November, 2024
Goldman Sachs and BMO Capital Markets recommend positioning for Federal Reserve policy easing into January as investors gauge the outlook for rate cuts ahead of a slate of economic data this week, including PCE price indexes Wednesday. Barclays recommends holding forward curve steepeners. * Barclays (Anshul Pradhan and others, Nov. 21 report)** Recommends two-year forward 2s10s curve steepeners, finding “real rates in the belly of the curve too high and the forward rate curve too […] Read More
Monday, 25 November, 2024
(Bloomberg) — Bank of England Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli said policymakers need to move carefully as they gradually cut interest rates. Delivering her first speech since joining the BOE earlier this year, Lombardelli said the UK has made “good progress on disinflation” but “the more persistent components of inflation and uncertainties around how the labor market will evolve are cause for concern.” “I support a gradual removal of monetary policy restriction and will be monitoring […] Read More
Wednesday, 20 November, 2024
Citi Bullish on FV, UXY, US Futures Rolls, Neutral on TU, TY, WN For the Treasury futures calendar roll from Dec24 to Mar25, interest-rate strategists at Citi are neutral on TU, slightly bullish FV, neutral TY, slightly bullish UXY roll, slightly bullish US and neutral WN, Raghav Datla and Jason Williams say in a note. * TU: Neutral based on bearish risks from increased asset manager long positioning (to 53% of open interest from 47% […] Read More
Tuesday, 19 November, 2024
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-19/atacms-why-us-will-let-ukraine-strike-inside-russia-with-its-missiles “But allied officials don’t expect the latest authorization to have a comparable impact, at least for now, or to dramatically shift the balance of the conflict, where Ukraine’s forces have been losing ground in recent months amid heavy pressure from more numerous and better-equipped Russian troops. The Pentagon said in September that Russia had already moved 90% of the aircraft it uses to launch glide-bomb and missile attacks on Ukraine out of range for […] Read More
Friday, 08 November, 2024
US equities saw the biggest daily inflow in five months on Wednesday, the day Donald Trump was declared winner of the US Presidential election, at $20 billion, according to a Bank of America note citing EPFR Global data. US small caps saw the biggest daily inflow since March at $3.8 billion, a team led by Michael Hartnett writes in a note Financials had the biggest daily inflow on record, at $2.9 billion In the week […] Read More
Thursday, 07 November, 2024
The Bank of England cut borrowing costs for the second time this year but stopped short of signalling faster easing, warning that the budget will drive up inflation by as much as half a percentage point. Eight members of the Monetary Policy Committee led by Governor Andrew Bailey voted to lower the benchmark interest rate by a quarter point to 4.75%. Catherine Mann, one of its external officials, was the lone dissenter, preferring to hold […] Read More
Monday, 04 November, 2024
Strategists at Barclays say the recent steepening of the Euribor curve is excessive and recommend flatteners to position for a slower cadence of ECB interest-rate cuts. Goldman Sachs analysts write that risk reward favors lower yields in coming quarters while SocGen strategists are looking for opportunities to buy German bonds. Barclays: (strategists including Rohan Khanna) Recommends June 2025 – December 2025 Euribor flattener to fade the recent aggressive steepening which has lifted the spread toward […] Read More
Thursday, 31 October, 2024
“Today’s Autumn Budget saw the Chancellor notably increase current and investment spending, taxation, and borrowing. New policy measures added £48.8bn to departmental day-to-day spending by fiscal year (FY) 2029 (1.4% of FY2029 GDP). To meet its deficit target – which at present requires the current budget to move into balance by FY2029 – the government introduced tax increases worth £41.5bn in the final year of the forecast (although this falls to £31.9bn after considering the […] Read More
Thursday, 31 October, 2024
TRICKS WITHOUT TREATS: General feed back on Reeves UK budget: tax up (check), govt spending up (check), inflation up (check) growth… missing. Small businesses particularly vocal on huge new costs (min wage and NI). – THE AI’S HAVE IT: Meta (prob the most loved name in US tech) fell after hours, Zuckerberg’s spending plans go-on unabated which took shine off numbers. – CLOUD TO SILVER LININGS: Microsoft hit after hours, cautioned cloud revenue growth will […] Read More
