Monday, 04 November, 2024
Strategists at Barclays say the recent steepening of the Euribor curve is excessive and recommend flatteners to position for a slower cadence of ECB interest-rate cuts. Goldman Sachs analysts write that risk reward favors lower yields in coming quarters while SocGen strategists are looking for opportunities to buy German bonds. Barclays: (strategists including Rohan Khanna) Recommends June 2025 – December 2025 Euribor flattener to fade the recent aggressive steepening which has lifted the spread toward […] Read More
Thursday, 31 October, 2024
“Today’s Autumn Budget saw the Chancellor notably increase current and investment spending, taxation, and borrowing. New policy measures added £48.8bn to departmental day-to-day spending by fiscal year (FY) 2029 (1.4% of FY2029 GDP). To meet its deficit target – which at present requires the current budget to move into balance by FY2029 – the government introduced tax increases worth £41.5bn in the final year of the forecast (although this falls to £31.9bn after considering the […] Read More
Thursday, 31 October, 2024
TRICKS WITHOUT TREATS: General feed back on Reeves UK budget: tax up (check), govt spending up (check), inflation up (check) growth… missing. Small businesses particularly vocal on huge new costs (min wage and NI). – THE AI’S HAVE IT: Meta (prob the most loved name in US tech) fell after hours, Zuckerberg’s spending plans go-on unabated which took shine off numbers. – CLOUD TO SILVER LININGS: Microsoft hit after hours, cautioned cloud revenue growth will […] Read More
Tuesday, 15 October, 2024
National Australia Bank brings forward RBA interest rate cut to February One of the country’s largest bank says that the Reserve Bank will be in a position to offer rate relief to millions of Australians sooner than expected. Matt Bell 2 hours ago The Australian Business Network https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/economics/national-australia-bank-brings-forward-rba-interest-rate-cut-to-february/news-story/2e05d4f72be232b6911c201194c9d3fc National Australia Bank has brought forward its expectations for the first interest rate cut from the Reserve Bank to February as economic indicators suggest that inflation is […] Read More
Tuesday, 15 October, 2024
Federal Reserve’s Waller calls for more caution on interest rate cuts after ‘disappointing’ data Influential governor says US economy in ‘sweet spot’ but hotter than expected inflation not welcome A strong US economy and mixed inflation data support a more gradual pace of interest rate cuts following a big reduction by the country’s central bank last month, a top official at the Federal Reserve said on Monday. “I view the totality of the data as […] Read More
Monday, 14 October, 2024
Traders are starting to price in US electionrisks to Treasury and volatility markets, according to GoldmanSachs strategists who continue to recommend shorting 10-yearTreasuries versus German counterparts. Citi took profit on along breakevens position, while BMO looks to enter the tradeshould rates fall to more favorable buying levels. For a roundupof views on European rates, click here. * Bank of America (Mark Cabana, Meghan Swiber and others, Oct.11 report)** Maintains dip-buying stance and real steepeners bias, […] Read More
Thursday, 10 October, 2024
10 Oct 2024 12:30:29 – ECB ACCOUNTS: NFLATION WAS EXPECTED TO RISE AGAIN IN THE LATTER PART OF THIS YEAR 10 Oct 2024 12:30:36 – ECB ACCOUNTS: IT WAS THEN EXPECTED TO DECLINE TOWARDS THE TARGET OVER THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT YEAR 10 Oct 2024 12:30:50 – ECB ACCOUNTS: RECENT NEGATIVE SURPRISES IN PMI MANUFACTURING OUTPUT INDICATED POTENTIAL HEADWINDS TO THE NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK 10 Oct 2024 12:31:01 – ECB ACCOUNTS: T THEREFORE NEEDED TO […] Read More
Wednesday, 09 October, 2024
ECB’s Stournaras (FT): Backs two more 25bps rate cuts this year starting next week and another in Dec; likely to be case for further easing in 2025; inflation is falling faster than Sep f/c, perhaps we get to 2% in Q1 ’25; if infla continues the downward path towards the 2 per cent target, why not cut in every meeting? Read More
Wednesday, 09 October, 2024
*VILLEROY: FRENCH BUDGET IS GOING `IN RIGHT DIRECTION’ *VILLEROY: ECB RATE CUT IS VERY PROBABLE, WON’T BE LAST *BANK OF FRANCE GOVERNOR VILLEROY SPEAKS ON FRANCEINFO *ECB’S VILLEROY: FRENCH ECONOMY IS RESILIENT Read More
Tuesday, 08 October, 2024
*ECB’S VASLE: OCT. CUT DOESN’T NECESSARILY MEAN ANOTHER IN DEC. *ECB’S VASLE: INFLATION RISKS ABATING BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY *ECB’S VASLE: INTEREST-RATE CUT IN OCTOBER IS `AN OPTION’ *ECB GOVERNING COUNCIL MEMBER VASLE SPEAKS IN INTERVIEW *ECB’S VASLE: MARKETS AREN’T DICTATING OUR MOVES *ECB’S VASLE: RATES LIKELY TO BE CUT TO NEUTRAL BY END OF 2025 Read More
