FOMC HIKES & HOPES: Markets are now near convinced that tomorrow brings a 75bps increase in the Fed Funds target rate, the fifth consecutive rate hike from the Federal Reserve since the start of the year taking the US benchmark to 3.25%. Just as a point of reference, the S&P moves on the day of and 2 days following each FOMC move: – 16th Mar: Fed Funds +25bps / 16th, 17th, 18th Mar: S&P +2.2%, […] Read More
China’s Global Times editor: “Never underestimate the risk of the Ukraine war escalating into a nuclear conflict. If the US wants to defeat Putin outright, it needs to finally overcome the confidence and strength that nuclear forces bring to Russia.” Read More
FED OFFICIALS’ MEDIAN VIEW OF FED FUNDS RATE AT END-2022 4.4% VS 3.4% IN JUNE PROJECTION 21-Sep-2022 19:00:02 – FED OFFICIALS’ MEDIAN VIEW OF FED FUNDS RATE AT END-2023 4.6% (PREV 3.8%) 21-Sep-2022 19:00:02 – FED OFFICIALS’ MEDIAN VIEW OF FED FUNDS RATE AT END-2024 3.9% (PREV 3.4%) 21-Sep-2022 19:00:02 – FED OFFICIALS’ MEDIAN VIEW OF FED FUNDS RATE AT END-2025 2.9% 21-Sep-2022 19:00:02 – FED OFFICIALS’ MEDIAN VIEW OF FED FUNDS RATE IN LONGER […] Read More
<Back> to Return Previous Next Send Actions Translate News: News Story 09/21/2022 19:00:01[BN] Key Takeaways From Fed Decision to Raise Rates 75 Basis Points By Scott Lanman (Bloomberg) — Here are key takeaways from the Federal Reserve’s interest- rate decision and economic projections on Wednesday: TOPLive in Progress Fed raises its main rate 75 basis points, as anticipated, to a range of FOMC Rate Decision and Fed 3% to 3.25%, while new projections from officials […] Read More
Institute For Fiscal Studies on freezing the energy price: ” terrible idea but may be unavoidable” Describing an energy bill freeze as “a terrible policy — but maybe one we can’t avoid”, IFX said: “The problems with it are twofold. It’s enormously expensive and a lot of money goes to people who don’t need it, and [secondly] if you’re holding prices constant what takes the strain is supply, so that increases the risk that you’ll […] Read More
GS: The July FOMC minutes indicated that participants thought that “at some point” it would likely become appropriate to slow the pace of hiking while assessing the impact from tighter financial conditions, consistent with our forecast that the FOMC will slow the pace of hiking to 50bp in September and 25bp in November and December. The Fed staff’s forecast for economic growth was “noticeably weaker” than at the June meeting, while participants generally judged […] Read More
No images? Click here War Lab puts risk of China/Taiwan conflictat 74% in 2020, which Ray Dalio’sresearch seeks to emulate Christopher Joye, portfolio manager, Coolabah Capital Investments Over at Livewire, I write that amidst news that the US has sensationally relocated one-quarter of its entire strategic B2 stealth bomber fleet to Australia due to the rising risks of war with China over Taiwan, it is worth revising our contrarian predictions on this subject. […] Read More
boe -street views -Barclays: Expect a 50bp hike at the August meeting with a 7-2 vote as two members prefer a 25b move. Main drivers for the shift to 50bp is are energy prices once again pushing inflation even higher than projected, higher volatility in macro variables has forced other central banks to shed the gradualist narrative, and economic data especially in the labour marker shows a more aggressive approach is needed. They now see […] Read More
{US}{US} Some downside that’s been looking attractive: we have bought this in from -4 to flat.. breakevens are wildly attractive, but if the 1×2 isn’t good for your risk profile this stands out: SFRH3 96.00/95.625/95.25 put fly vs 98.25 call ppr sells 10k @ 0.75 selling the call (96.425) so you are receiving .75 to own the fly closing out the downside risk and selling the 98.25call against it in SFH3 175 bp higher . […] Read More
Expected Index Extensions for end of September: {GB} Gilts: +0.23 {US} US Tsy: +0.08 {EU} EGBs: +0.04 {GB} Gilt index meets strong duration extension on the back of £35.9bn dropping the index and the expected syndication tap of the 30y Green Gilt for around £4bn {US} US extension is in line with average for a non-refunding month {EU} Low duration extension for EGBs which compares with 0.15y last year Read More
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