Tuesday, 24 September, 2024
BUND VOL firmer:
DEC 133.50 C lifted 2,000x NOV BUND 134.50^ 175 mid (+3.5 from open) DEC BUND 134.50^ 264 mid (+4.5 from open) Read More
Tuesday, 24 September, 2024
U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said on Tuesday:
WASHINGTON, Sept 24 (Reuters) – U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said on Tuesday key measures of inflation remain “uncomfortably above” the Fed’s 2% target, warranting caution as the Fed proceeds with cutting interest rates. Bowman said she agreed that progress on lowering inflation since it peaked in 2022 means it is time for the Fed to reset monetary policy. But she dissented to last week’s half-point rate reduction in favor of a more “measured” […] Read More
Monday, 23 September, 2024
RBA Views
Westpac: No change Westpac chief economist, Luci Ellis, the RBA is expected to keep the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% in the upcoming policy meeting. Westpac analysts pointed out that the recent labour force data underscored robust labour demand. With employment rising and the UER steady, this ongoing alignment of demand/supply indicates a balanced labour market and a resilient economy, supporting the outlook for accelerated economic growth in 2025 as inflation eases and the RBA […] Read More
Monday, 16 September, 2024
Bill Dudley – The Fed Should Go Big Now and I Think It Will
The Fed Should Go Big Now and I Think It Will: Bill Dudley2024-09-16 10:30:33.352 GMT By Bill Dudley(Bloomberg Opinion) — The US Federal Reserve faces a crucial decision at its policy-making meeting this week: Ease off slightly on monetary restraint with a 25-basis-pointinterest-rate cut, or go for a rare 50-basis-point cut to fend off a recession.What should it do, and what will it do? The answers to these two questions don’t necessarily have to be […] Read More
Monday, 16 September, 2024
Weekend Press on Fed 50…..
{US} Weekend Press on Fed 50….. WSJ Op-Ed (15 Sep): Interest rates are too high. The Fed should cut by a half point; with rates so far from neutral and the labour market cooling, it’s better to start big https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/interest-rates-are-too-high-the-fed-should-cut-by-a-half-point-e7855ea8 FT Op-Ed (15 Sep): Jay Powell’s rate cut conundrum; with inflation down and the jobs market cooling, the economics points to 50bps https://www.ft.com/content/e125eeba-325c-40a1-a59b-831f17c4a9ae?desktop=true&segmentId=d8d3e364-5197-20eb-17cf-2437841d178a#myft:notification:instant-email:content Read More
Thursday, 12 September, 2024
The Fed’s Rate-Cut Dilemma: Start Big or Small?
{us} WSJ/Timiroas – The Fed’s Rate-Cut Dilemma: Start Big or Small? – That the Fed will cut rates at its meeting next week is all but settled. But how much is shaping up to be a close call. https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/fed-interest-rate-cut-size-861c9600?mod=economy_lead_story Read More
Thursday, 12 September, 2024
ECB 75bp by year end
{EU} MKT looking for 75+ bps year end ERV4 9712/25/37 CALL fly paid 1 2k this is offered on /1 —————————————- The above fly only gives you todays meeting…. ERZ4 expiry gives us 3 x meetings that’s offered at /1.25… Surely makes sense to buy the ERZ4 fly over the ERV4 … Gives good tail risk even if it not the core view coming in at the right level Read More
Thursday, 12 September, 2024
ECB Street Views
Street Views: Bank of America: expect the ECB to cut by 25bp and leave the forward guidance of the statement unchanged. The projections will undergo only slight changes. Expect the next cut in December at the latest. The ECB will lower the deposit rate to 2% by 3Q of next year, and to 1.5% in 2026. Barclays: expect the ECB to cut by 25bp and leave the statement unchanged. Lagarde will say that monetary policy […] Read More
Tuesday, 10 September, 2024
{eu} Large print here:
{eu}Large print here: we’ve paid 1 ERZ4 97.00/97.125 1×1.5 C SPRD 24,000x vs selling 4.25 0RZ4 98.00/98.25 1×1.5 C SPRD 24,000x Read More
Friday, 06 September, 2024
RBC’s Blake Gwinn
RBC’s Blake Gwinn. He said the addition of the Waller speech (post NFPs) means that they they now have a clear opening to realign the market pricing ahead of the blackout. He add, “this leans hawkish to us. Left to its own devices , we think the market would be quick to price in 50bp on even relatively benign NFP print. If the Fed was ready to accept this and cut 50bp, there would have […] Read More
