{EU} MKT looking for 75+ bps year end ERV4 9712/25/37 CALL fly paid 1 2k this is offered on /1 —————————————- The above fly only gives you todays meeting…. ERZ4 expiry gives us 3 x meetings that’s offered at /1.25… Surely makes sense to buy the ERZ4 fly over the ERV4 … Gives good tail risk even if it not the core view coming in at the right level Read More
Street Views: Bank of America: expect the ECB to cut by 25bp and leave the forward guidance of the statement unchanged. The projections will undergo only slight changes. Expect the next cut in December at the latest. The ECB will lower the deposit rate to 2% by 3Q of next year, and to 1.5% in 2026. Barclays: expect the ECB to cut by 25bp and leave the statement unchanged. Lagarde will say that monetary policy […] Read More
{eu}Large print here: we’ve paid 1 ERZ4 97.00/97.125 1×1.5 C SPRD 24,000x vs selling 4.25 0RZ4 98.00/98.25 1×1.5 C SPRD 24,000x Read More
RBC’s Blake Gwinn. He said the addition of the Waller speech (post NFPs) means that they they now have a clear opening to realign the market pricing ahead of the blackout. He add, “this leans hawkish to us. Left to its own devices , we think the market would be quick to price in 50bp on even relatively benign NFP print. If the Fed was ready to accept this and cut 50bp, there would have […] Read More
Jobs Report Will Sway Fed’s Decision on Size of Rate Cut Another crummy labor-market report could tee up a larger, half-point reduction, but decent hiring would keep the Fed on track for a quarter-point cut By Nick Timiraos Sept. 5, 2024 9:00 pm ET https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/august-jobs-report-fed-interest-rate-63fd80f0?mod=panda_wsj_author_alert The August employment report due for release Friday stands to play a larger-than-normal role in determining the size of a widely expected interest-rate cut later this […] Read More
Powell Issues Strongest Signal Yet That Rate Cuts Are On the Way — WSJ By Paul Kiernan (Wall Street Journal) — JACKSON HOLE, Wyo. — Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell gave his strongest signal yet that interest-rate cuts are coming soon, saying the central bank intends to act to stave off a further weakening of the U.S. labor market. “We do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions,” Powell said in prepared […] Read More
ANZ: “The RBA Board left the cash rate unchanged (as was widely expected) and retained a hawkish tone to the post-meeting statement. At the risk of reading too much into the RBA’s words, if anything we’d view it as more hawkish than June and May. • The accompanying forecasts in the Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP) have a slightly slower return of trimmed mean inflation to the mid-point of the target versus May, but also […] Read More
{AU} Luci Ellis – RBA Governor all but rules out rate cuts this year A short video update from the Westpac Group Chief Economist. https://www.westpaciq.com.au/economics/2024/08/lucis-video-7-august-2024?ai=1722996447006&cd=74905&cid=edm Read More
RBA on hold, but hawkish amongst market whiplash Luci Ellis – Chief Economist Westpac Group, Westpac 18:20 August 06 2024 https://www.westpaciq.com.au/economics/2024/08/rba-decision-somp-august-2024?ai=1722908164443&cd=74905&cid=edm The RBA left rates on hold in August as we expected, but their rhetoric and view of aggregate demand were surprisingly hawkish. Given the Board apparently does not see its way to cutting rates this year, our expectation of a November rate cut is unlikely to be achieved. Our rate forecasts are under review […] Read More
Terry McCrann – Why didn’t the RBA hike? If the RBA believed its own numbers it should have increased official interest rates. So what’s going on? August 6, 2024 – 3:45PM https://www.heraldsun.com.au/business/why-didnt-the-rba-hike/news-story/732be8e55c0f0b363c449c7aa634c960 If the Reserve Bank actually believed its forecasts, it really should have announced an interest rate hike Tuesday. When it left its interest rate unchanged at its last meeting in mid-June, it expected inflation to be back below 3 […] Read More
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