Monday, 16 September, 2024
{US} Weekend Press on Fed 50….. WSJ Op-Ed (15 Sep): Interest rates are too high. The Fed should cut by a half point; with rates so far from neutral and the labour market cooling, it’s better to start big https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/interest-rates-are-too-high-the-fed-should-cut-by-a-half-point-e7855ea8 FT Op-Ed (15 Sep): Jay Powell’s rate cut conundrum; with inflation down and the jobs market cooling, the economics points to 50bps https://www.ft.com/content/e125eeba-325c-40a1-a59b-831f17c4a9ae?desktop=true&segmentId=d8d3e364-5197-20eb-17cf-2437841d178a#myft:notification:instant-email:content Read More
Thursday, 12 September, 2024
{us} WSJ/Timiroas – The Fed’s Rate-Cut Dilemma: Start Big or Small? – That the Fed will cut rates at its meeting next week is all but settled. But how much is shaping up to be a close call. https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/fed-interest-rate-cut-size-861c9600?mod=economy_lead_story Read More
Thursday, 12 September, 2024
{EU} MKT looking for 75+ bps year end ERV4 9712/25/37 CALL fly paid 1 2k this is offered on /1 —————————————- The above fly only gives you todays meeting…. ERZ4 expiry gives us 3 x meetings that’s offered at /1.25… Surely makes sense to buy the ERZ4 fly over the ERV4 … Gives good tail risk even if it not the core view coming in at the right level Read More
Thursday, 12 September, 2024
Street Views: Bank of America: expect the ECB to cut by 25bp and leave the forward guidance of the statement unchanged. The projections will undergo only slight changes. Expect the next cut in December at the latest. The ECB will lower the deposit rate to 2% by 3Q of next year, and to 1.5% in 2026. Barclays: expect the ECB to cut by 25bp and leave the statement unchanged. Lagarde will say that monetary policy […] Read More
Tuesday, 10 September, 2024
{eu}Large print here: we’ve paid 1 ERZ4 97.00/97.125 1×1.5 C SPRD 24,000x vs selling 4.25 0RZ4 98.00/98.25 1×1.5 C SPRD 24,000x Read More
Friday, 06 September, 2024
RBC’s Blake Gwinn. He said the addition of the Waller speech (post NFPs) means that they they now have a clear opening to realign the market pricing ahead of the blackout. He add, “this leans hawkish to us. Left to its own devices , we think the market would be quick to price in 50bp on even relatively benign NFP print. If the Fed was ready to accept this and cut 50bp, there would have […] Read More
Friday, 06 September, 2024
Jobs Report Will Sway Fed’s Decision on Size of Rate Cut Another crummy labor-market report could tee up a larger, half-point reduction, but decent hiring would keep the Fed on track for a quarter-point cut By Nick Timiraos Sept. 5, 2024 9:00 pm ET https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/august-jobs-report-fed-interest-rate-63fd80f0?mod=panda_wsj_author_alert The August employment report due for release Friday stands to play a larger-than-normal role in determining the size of a widely expected interest-rate cut later this […] Read More
Friday, 23 August, 2024
Powell Issues Strongest Signal Yet That Rate Cuts Are On the Way — WSJ By Paul Kiernan (Wall Street Journal) — JACKSON HOLE, Wyo. — Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell gave his strongest signal yet that interest-rate cuts are coming soon, saying the central bank intends to act to stave off a further weakening of the U.S. labor market. “We do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions,” Powell said in prepared […] Read More
Wednesday, 07 August, 2024
ANZ: “The RBA Board left the cash rate unchanged (as was widely expected) and retained a hawkish tone to the post-meeting statement. At the risk of reading too much into the RBA’s words, if anything we’d view it as more hawkish than June and May. • The accompanying forecasts in the Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP) have a slightly slower return of trimmed mean inflation to the mid-point of the target versus May, but also […] Read More
Wednesday, 07 August, 2024
{AU} Luci Ellis – RBA Governor all but rules out rate cuts this year A short video update from the Westpac Group Chief Economist. https://www.westpaciq.com.au/economics/2024/08/lucis-video-7-august-2024?ai=1722996447006&cd=74905&cid=edm Read More
