Shares rout should not sway RBA With inflation still high reserve Bank Governor Michele Bullock won’t cut interest rates despite suggestions our economy might be close to `snapping’. https://www.heraldsun.com.au/business/terry-mccrann/rba-should-not-cut-interest-rates-with-inflation-numbers-still-high/news-story/b7f9527a75af7a0d73f190797b8c816e Read More
*BOE WAS BRIEFED ON PUBLIC PAY RISES, NOT INCLUDED IN FORECAST *BOE: INFLATION FORECAST TO HIT 2.7% IN 4Q ’24 BEFORE RETREATING *BOE: UNEMPLOYMENT FORECAST TO PEAK AT 4.8% IN 2026 *BOE SEES 1.25% GDP GROWTH IN 2024, 1% IN 2025, 1.25% IN 2026 *BOE SEES INFLATION AT 1.7% IN 3Q 2026, 1.5% IN 3Q 2027 *BOE: WILL MONITOR CLOSELY RISKS OF INFLATION PERSISTENCE *BOE: STRENGTH CONTINUED IN 2Q, SURVEYS POINT TO 3Q SLOWDOWN *BOE […] Read More
{US}{GB}{EU} Expected Index Extensions and Month End Rebalances for July The UK should see a duration contraction of -0.04y this month, along with a monthly rebalance selling bonds/buying equities. The EU has a decent and above average duration extension +0.08y, countersignalled by a rebalance favouring sellings bonds/buying equities. The US has a decent but below average duration extension +0.07y, again countersignalled by a rebalance favouring sellings bonds/buying equities. {US} UST Aggregate Index: +0.07y • Duration […] Read More
LE PARI DE PARIS: France goes to the polls on round one voting on Sunday (30th June). National Rally still holds the biggest share of the expected vote, 35% in the latest polls. But the left coalition running at 29.5% is expected to keep a cohabitation of Macron presiding over a hung parliament. OAT/BUNDS spreads jumped to fresh highs yesterday afternoon dragging other EU yields, notably BTP spreads, after German tones of objection of any […] Read More
Q&A: *HAUSER: IT WOULD BE BAD MISTAKE TO SET POLICY ON ONE NUMBER *HAUSER: MONTHLY INDICATOR IS ONLY PARTIAL DATA *HAUSER: WHOLE SERIES OF DATA COMING OUT BEFORE AUG.5-6 *HAUSER: LOT FOR US TO REFLECT ON AHEAD OF AUGUST MEETING *HAUSER: NO-ONE OTHER THAN CENTRAL BANK CAN ANCHOR INFLATION *HAUSER: STRONG JOBS A FACTOR IN STRONG SERVICES PRICES *HAUSER: POSSIBLE IT’S TAKING LONGER FOR POLICY TO FEED THROUGH *RBA DEPUTY GOVERNOR ANDREW HAUSER COMMENTS IN […] Read More
Multiple interest rate rises needed to quash inflation John Kehoe – Economics editor https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/multiple-interest-rate-rises-needed-to-quash-inflation-20240627-p5jp62 Economists have warned there is a good chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia will need to raise interest rates multiple times to squash persistent inflation, jeopardising its hopes for a soft economic landing. After the annual inflation rate in May rose from 3.6 per cent to 4 per cent, JBWere chief investment officer Sally Auld said, “at best inflation is […] Read More
BACK TO LE FUTURE: it seems like an eternity ago since the days of checking in on Eurozone 10yr spreads as a key risk sentiment driver, but here we are again. Macron’s political gamble is having significant ramifications and bond vigilantes are telling him what they think. With NF’s polling lead focussing Le-Pennomics, OATs spreads are highest since 2017 vs Bunds and the CAC40 is experiencing a significant volatility bought. However, this may well play […] Read More
WSJ – Timiraos – Investors on Tenterhooks for Fed’s Latest Rate-Cut Projections Debates around the interest-rate path may obscure greater cohesion over the Fed’s current wait-and-see stance By Nick Timiraos Updated June 11, 2024 12:07 am ET https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/fed-meeting-interest-rate-preview-9eabab49?st=1h4dmxe93thf722&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink Investors will obsess Wednesday over whether Federal Reserve officials pencil in one or two interest rate cuts this year. For policymakers, difficult decisions and looming divisions over whether and when to […] Read More
*ECB’S LAGARDE: DISINFLATION SUFFICIENTLY ADVANCED, TO CONTINUE *LAGARDE: NATURAL ECB RATE LIKELY HIGHER THAN BEFORE PANDEMIC *ECB CHIEF LAGARDE COMMENTS IN INTERVIEW WITH VARIOUS NEWSPAPERS *ECB’S LAGARDE: INTEREST RATES AREN’T ON A LINEAR DECLINING PATH *ECB’S LAGARDE: SERVICES INFLATION IS OUR WEAK SPOT *ECB’S LAGARDE: LAST WEEK’S INTEREST-RATE CUT WAS APPROPRIATE *ECB’S LAGARDE: WE’RE NOT ON A PREDETERMINED RATE PATH *ECB’S LAGARDE: THERE MIGHT BE PERIODS WITH RATES ON HOLD *ECB’S LAGARDE: WE KNOW THERE […] Read More
GOLDMAN SACHS EXPECTS U.S. FEDERAL RESERVE TO START CUTTING INTEREST RATES IN SEPTEMBER, VS PRIOR FORECAST OF JULY – Reuters News Read More
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