Friday, 06 September, 2024
Jobs Report Will Sway Fed’s Decision on Size of Rate Cut Another crummy labor-market report could tee up a larger, half-point reduction, but decent hiring would keep the Fed on track for a quarter-point cut By Nick Timiraos Sept. 5, 2024 9:00 pm ET https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/august-jobs-report-fed-interest-rate-63fd80f0?mod=panda_wsj_author_alert The August employment report due for release Friday stands to play a larger-than-normal role in determining the size of a widely expected interest-rate cut later this […] Read More
Friday, 23 August, 2024
Powell Issues Strongest Signal Yet That Rate Cuts Are On the Way — WSJ By Paul Kiernan (Wall Street Journal) — JACKSON HOLE, Wyo. — Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell gave his strongest signal yet that interest-rate cuts are coming soon, saying the central bank intends to act to stave off a further weakening of the U.S. labor market. “We do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions,” Powell said in prepared […] Read More
Wednesday, 07 August, 2024
ANZ: “The RBA Board left the cash rate unchanged (as was widely expected) and retained a hawkish tone to the post-meeting statement. At the risk of reading too much into the RBA’s words, if anything we’d view it as more hawkish than June and May. • The accompanying forecasts in the Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP) have a slightly slower return of trimmed mean inflation to the mid-point of the target versus May, but also […] Read More
Wednesday, 07 August, 2024
{AU} Luci Ellis – RBA Governor all but rules out rate cuts this year A short video update from the Westpac Group Chief Economist. https://www.westpaciq.com.au/economics/2024/08/lucis-video-7-august-2024?ai=1722996447006&cd=74905&cid=edm Read More
Tuesday, 06 August, 2024
RBA on hold, but hawkish amongst market whiplash Luci Ellis – Chief Economist Westpac Group, Westpac 18:20 August 06 2024 https://www.westpaciq.com.au/economics/2024/08/rba-decision-somp-august-2024?ai=1722908164443&cd=74905&cid=edm The RBA left rates on hold in August as we expected, but their rhetoric and view of aggregate demand were surprisingly hawkish. Given the Board apparently does not see its way to cutting rates this year, our expectation of a November rate cut is unlikely to be achieved. Our rate forecasts are under review […] Read More
Tuesday, 06 August, 2024
Terry McCrann – Why didn’t the RBA hike? If the RBA believed its own numbers it should have increased official interest rates. So what’s going on? August 6, 2024 – 3:45PM https://www.heraldsun.com.au/business/why-didnt-the-rba-hike/news-story/732be8e55c0f0b363c449c7aa634c960 If the Reserve Bank actually believed its forecasts, it really should have announced an interest rate hike Tuesday. When it left its interest rate unchanged at its last meeting in mid-June, it expected inflation to be back below 3 […] Read More
Monday, 05 August, 2024
Shares rout should not sway RBA With inflation still high reserve Bank Governor Michele Bullock won’t cut interest rates despite suggestions our economy might be close to `snapping’. https://www.heraldsun.com.au/business/terry-mccrann/rba-should-not-cut-interest-rates-with-inflation-numbers-still-high/news-story/b7f9527a75af7a0d73f190797b8c816e Read More
Thursday, 01 August, 2024
*BOE WAS BRIEFED ON PUBLIC PAY RISES, NOT INCLUDED IN FORECAST *BOE: INFLATION FORECAST TO HIT 2.7% IN 4Q ’24 BEFORE RETREATING *BOE: UNEMPLOYMENT FORECAST TO PEAK AT 4.8% IN 2026 *BOE SEES 1.25% GDP GROWTH IN 2024, 1% IN 2025, 1.25% IN 2026 *BOE SEES INFLATION AT 1.7% IN 3Q 2026, 1.5% IN 3Q 2027 *BOE: WILL MONITOR CLOSELY RISKS OF INFLATION PERSISTENCE *BOE: STRENGTH CONTINUED IN 2Q, SURVEYS POINT TO 3Q SLOWDOWN *BOE […] Read More
Friday, 26 July, 2024
{US}{GB}{EU} Expected Index Extensions and Month End Rebalances for July The UK should see a duration contraction of -0.04y this month, along with a monthly rebalance selling bonds/buying equities. The EU has a decent and above average duration extension +0.08y, countersignalled by a rebalance favouring sellings bonds/buying equities. The US has a decent but below average duration extension +0.07y, again countersignalled by a rebalance favouring sellings bonds/buying equities. {US} UST Aggregate Index: +0.07y • Duration […] Read More
Friday, 28 June, 2024
LE PARI DE PARIS: France goes to the polls on round one voting on Sunday (30th June). National Rally still holds the biggest share of the expected vote, 35% in the latest polls. But the left coalition running at 29.5% is expected to keep a cohabitation of Macron presiding over a hung parliament. OAT/BUNDS spreads jumped to fresh highs yesterday afternoon dragging other EU yields, notably BTP spreads, after German tones of objection of any […] Read More
