ECB’s Stournaras (FT): Backs two more 25bps rate cuts this year starting next week and another in Dec; likely to be case for further easing in 2025; inflation is falling faster than Sep f/c, perhaps we get to 2% in Q1 ’25; if infla continues the downward path towards the 2 per cent target, why not cut in every meeting? Read More
*VILLEROY: FRENCH BUDGET IS GOING `IN RIGHT DIRECTION’ *VILLEROY: ECB RATE CUT IS VERY PROBABLE, WON’T BE LAST *BANK OF FRANCE GOVERNOR VILLEROY SPEAKS ON FRANCEINFO *ECB’S VILLEROY: FRENCH ECONOMY IS RESILIENT Read More
*ECB’S VASLE: OCT. CUT DOESN’T NECESSARILY MEAN ANOTHER IN DEC. *ECB’S VASLE: INFLATION RISKS ABATING BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY *ECB’S VASLE: INTEREST-RATE CUT IN OCTOBER IS `AN OPTION’ *ECB GOVERNING COUNCIL MEMBER VASLE SPEAKS IN INTERVIEW *ECB’S VASLE: MARKETS AREN’T DICTATING OUR MOVES *ECB’S VASLE: RATES LIKELY TO BE CUT TO NEUTRAL BY END OF 2025 Read More
US adds a robust 254,000 jobs and unemployment dips to 4.1% in sign of still-sturdy labor market By PAUL WISEMAN WASHINGTON (AP) — America’s employers added a surprisingly strong 254,000 jobs in September, the latest evidence that the U.S. labor market is still solid enough to support steady hiring and a growing economy. Last month’s hiring gain was up sharply from the 159,000 jobs that were added in August, and the unemployment dropped from 4.2% […] Read More
CHIN-EASING – HIGH FREQUENCY DATA – consumer sentiment turning in early reads: early looks on Golden Week consumption trends are positive. Xinhua reported more than 21mln trips were made on China’s railway network on 1st Oct, a single-day record. A further 18.2mln trips took place on 2nd Oct. Local press also said China’s box office revenue topped CNY1bn by 3rd Oct with ticket sales hitting CNY494mln on 1st Oct, up >12% YoY. Restaurant chain Haidilao […] Read More
{GB} “In a wide-ranging interview with the Guardian, Bailey held out the prospect of the Bank becoming a “bit more aggressive” in cutting interest rates provided the news on inflation continued to be good.” {GB} *BAILEY SAYS ECONOMY WAS MORE RESILIENT THAN EXPECTED: GUARDIAN *BAILEY SAYS LIVING COST PRESSURES NOT AS PERSISTENT: GUARDIAN *BOE’S BAILEY SAYS WATCHING MIDDLE EAST EVENTS CLOSELY: GUARDIAN *BOE’S BAILEY SEES CHANCE OF MORE AGGRESSIVE RATE CUTS: GUARDIAN https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/oct/03/its-tragic-bank-of-england-governor-watching-middle-east-crisis-closely Read More
{EU} Banks Following the crowd/pricing… * Bank of America: “Now expect back-to-back cuts of 25bp from now until the depo rate is back at 2% in June-25″”We stick to our view that the ECB will cut to 1.50%, but think we now get there by end-25, ie six months earlier”. * “Bigger and deeper cuts are a possibility if growth actually moves lower from here – but that is currently a risk scenario”. * Commerzbank: […] Read More
ECB doves to push for rate cut in Oct, hawks to dig in – sources By Francesco Canepa and Balazs Koranyi Reuters 26 Sep 2024 08:51:55 Weak PMI, sentiment strengthens rate cut calls Hawks likely to push for pause until Dec ECB cut rates this month amid slowing inflation FRANKFURT, Sept 26 (Reuters) – Policy doves at the European Central Bank are preparing to fight for an interest rate cut next month after a string […] Read More
{au} MNI INTERVIEW: RBA To Start Easing With 50bp Bang – Economist MNI (SYDNEY) – The Reserve Bank of Australia will start its easing cycle in February with a 50-basis-point cut to the 4.35% cash rate followed by a further 25bp reduction before pausing to assess economic data, a leading independent economist has told MNI. Saul Eslake, an economist with both public and private sector experience, told MNI the Reserve could act aggressively to lower […] Read More
The European Central Bank should cut interest rates at its October meeting as the economic outlook has weakened, according to Johanna Kyrklund, the chief investment officer at Schroders. The ECB “should be cutting rates. They may have a different mandate to the Fed, less of a dual mandate, more focus on price stability, but I think there is room for maneuver here to cut rates in Europe. That would be our expectation,” Kyrklund told Bloomberg […] Read More
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