{EU} Banks Following the crowd/pricing… * Bank of America: “Now expect back-to-back cuts of 25bp from now until the depo rate is back at 2% in June-25″”We stick to our view that the ECB will cut to 1.50%, but think we now get there by end-25, ie six months earlier”. * “Bigger and deeper cuts are a possibility if growth actually moves lower from here – but that is currently a risk scenario”. * Commerzbank: […] Read More
ECB doves to push for rate cut in Oct, hawks to dig in – sources By Francesco Canepa and Balazs Koranyi Reuters 26 Sep 2024 08:51:55 Weak PMI, sentiment strengthens rate cut calls Hawks likely to push for pause until Dec ECB cut rates this month amid slowing inflation FRANKFURT, Sept 26 (Reuters) – Policy doves at the European Central Bank are preparing to fight for an interest rate cut next month after a string […] Read More
{au} MNI INTERVIEW: RBA To Start Easing With 50bp Bang – Economist MNI (SYDNEY) – The Reserve Bank of Australia will start its easing cycle in February with a 50-basis-point cut to the 4.35% cash rate followed by a further 25bp reduction before pausing to assess economic data, a leading independent economist has told MNI. Saul Eslake, an economist with both public and private sector experience, told MNI the Reserve could act aggressively to lower […] Read More
The European Central Bank should cut interest rates at its October meeting as the economic outlook has weakened, according to Johanna Kyrklund, the chief investment officer at Schroders. The ECB “should be cutting rates. They may have a different mandate to the Fed, less of a dual mandate, more focus on price stability, but I think there is room for maneuver here to cut rates in Europe. That would be our expectation,” Kyrklund told Bloomberg […] Read More
DEC 133.50 C lifted 2,000x NOV BUND 134.50^ 175 mid (+3.5 from open) DEC BUND 134.50^ 264 mid (+4.5 from open) Read More
WASHINGTON, Sept 24 (Reuters) – U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said on Tuesday key measures of inflation remain “uncomfortably above” the Fed’s 2% target, warranting caution as the Fed proceeds with cutting interest rates. Bowman said she agreed that progress on lowering inflation since it peaked in 2022 means it is time for the Fed to reset monetary policy. But she dissented to last week’s half-point rate reduction in favor of a more “measured” […] Read More
Westpac: No change Westpac chief economist, Luci Ellis, the RBA is expected to keep the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% in the upcoming policy meeting. Westpac analysts pointed out that the recent labour force data underscored robust labour demand. With employment rising and the UER steady, this ongoing alignment of demand/supply indicates a balanced labour market and a resilient economy, supporting the outlook for accelerated economic growth in 2025 as inflation eases and the RBA […] Read More
The Fed Should Go Big Now and I Think It Will: Bill Dudley2024-09-16 10:30:33.352 GMT By Bill Dudley(Bloomberg Opinion) — The US Federal Reserve faces a crucial decision at its policy-making meeting this week: Ease off slightly on monetary restraint with a 25-basis-pointinterest-rate cut, or go for a rare 50-basis-point cut to fend off a recession.What should it do, and what will it do? The answers to these two questions don’t necessarily have to be […] Read More
{US} Weekend Press on Fed 50….. WSJ Op-Ed (15 Sep): Interest rates are too high. The Fed should cut by a half point; with rates so far from neutral and the labour market cooling, it’s better to start big https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/interest-rates-are-too-high-the-fed-should-cut-by-a-half-point-e7855ea8 FT Op-Ed (15 Sep): Jay Powell’s rate cut conundrum; with inflation down and the jobs market cooling, the economics points to 50bps https://www.ft.com/content/e125eeba-325c-40a1-a59b-831f17c4a9ae?desktop=true&segmentId=d8d3e364-5197-20eb-17cf-2437841d178a#myft:notification:instant-email:content Read More
{us} WSJ/Timiroas – The Fed’s Rate-Cut Dilemma: Start Big or Small? – That the Fed will cut rates at its meeting next week is all but settled. But how much is shaping up to be a close call. https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/fed-interest-rate-cut-size-861c9600?mod=economy_lead_story Read More
© Copyright Archr LLP
