Monday, 14 October, 2024
Traders are starting to price in US electionrisks to Treasury and volatility markets, according to GoldmanSachs strategists who continue to recommend shorting 10-yearTreasuries versus German counterparts. Citi took profit on along breakevens position, while BMO looks to enter the tradeshould rates fall to more favorable buying levels. For a roundupof views on European rates, click here. * Bank of America (Mark Cabana, Meghan Swiber and others, Oct.11 report)** Maintains dip-buying stance and real steepeners bias, […] Read More
Tuesday, 15 October, 2024
Federal Reserve’s Waller calls for more caution on interest rate cuts after ‘disappointing’ data Influential governor says US economy in ‘sweet spot’ but hotter than expected inflation not welcome A strong US economy and mixed inflation data support a more gradual pace of interest rate cuts following a big reduction by the country’s central bank last month, a top official at the Federal Reserve said on Monday. “I view the totality of the data as […] Read More
Tuesday, 15 October, 2024
National Australia Bank brings forward RBA interest rate cut to February One of the country’s largest bank says that the Reserve Bank will be in a position to offer rate relief to millions of Australians sooner than expected. Matt Bell 2 hours ago The Australian Business Network https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/economics/national-australia-bank-brings-forward-rba-interest-rate-cut-to-february/news-story/2e05d4f72be232b6911c201194c9d3fc National Australia Bank has brought forward its expectations for the first interest rate cut from the Reserve Bank to February as economic indicators suggest that inflation is […] Read More
Thursday, 31 October, 2024
TRICKS WITHOUT TREATS: General feed back on Reeves UK budget: tax up (check), govt spending up (check), inflation up (check) growth… missing. Small businesses particularly vocal on huge new costs (min wage and NI). – THE AI’S HAVE IT: Meta (prob the most loved name in US tech) fell after hours, Zuckerberg’s spending plans go-on unabated which took shine off numbers. – CLOUD TO SILVER LININGS: Microsoft hit after hours, cautioned cloud revenue growth will […] Read More
Tuesday, 07 January, 2025
NATWEST year ahead NatWest’s top themes related to fixed income and yield curves for the year ahead are as follows: Fiscal’s Long-COVID and Its Impact on Yields: The continuation of large fiscal deficits is expected to keep upward pressure on interest rates, affecting the level of yields and the shape of yield curves. This fiscal pressure, termed as “fiscal’s long-COVID,” is anticipated to play a significant role in determining the direction of fixed income markets. […] Read More
Tuesday, 07 January, 2025
PMorgan’s Treasury Client Survey for the week through Jan. 6 showed shorts rose 6ppts, longs increased 8ppts and neutrals dropped 14ppts. The all-client survey now shows the most outright longs and fewest neutrals since Dec. 4 2023. All clients (Jan. 6 vs Dec. 16) Long: 30 vs 22 Neutral: 55 vs 69 Short: 15 vs 9 Net longs: 15 vs 13 Active clients Long: 33 vs 22 Neutral: 34 vs 78 Short: 33 vs 0 […] Read More
Tuesday, 14 January, 2025
From Policy Shifts to Credit Risks: What Lies Ahead in 2025 2025 begins amid heightened global uncertainty, with the incoming Trump administration poised to drive market volatility and reshape economic policies. Key questions remain about the effectiveness of US fiscal discipline and the implications for bond yields and asset markets. Diverging global trends—rising bond yields in the US versus declining yields in China—highlight the complexity of the current environment. Meanwhile, Australia faces unique challenges, from […] Read More
Friday, 28 February, 2025
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -1.5 percent on February 28, down from 2.3 percent on February 19. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth fell from -0.41 percentage points to -3.70 percentage points while the nowcast of first-quarter real personal […] Read More
Tuesday, 04 March, 2025
A recent study by Palisade Research reveals a troubling trend—advanced AI models are learning to cheat. When faced with impossible odds, OpenAI’s o1 and DeepSeek’s R1 manipulated system files to alter chess positions against Stockfish, a top chess engine. When asked why, o1 justified its actions, stating the goal was to win, not necessarily play fair. This isn’t an isolated case. Other studies show AI engaging in deception, even manipulating math problems to avoid test […] Read More
Wednesday, 05 March, 2025
{GE} Commerz: Yesterday decisions mean that the debt level relative to gross domestic product (2024: 63.4%) will rise sharply in the coming years – by around ten percentage points due to the new special fund alone. If spending on defence were to rise to 3.5% of GDP, the debt level would increase by an additional 2.5% percentage points each year. In ten years, the general gov debt ratio could have risen to 90%, although this […] Read More
