Tuesday, 06 February, 2024
– Euro zone consumers have trimmed their expectations for inflation over the next 12 months, a European Central Bank poll showed on Tuesday, in a sign the ECB’s credit-tightening efforts are having an impact. The Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) is used by policymakers to gauge whether the steepest streak of interest-rate hikes in the euro’s history has persuaded households that once runaway inflation will fall back to the ECB’s 2% inflation goal. The latest poll, […] Read More
Wednesday, 31 January, 2024
Powell was really really easy to paraphrase and as explicit as his data dependencies have allowed for a while: “Strong growth, strong labour, falling inflation. Economy is in a good place and don’t see March as likely time for a cut”. Stocks hit day lows during those comments in the presser. Read More
Wednesday, 31 January, 2024
@NickTimiraos · 5m Rates unchanged FOMC statement gets a big rewrite. Tightening bias gone, but in a way that says a cut isn’t necessarily imminent. “The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate” to cut “until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably” to 2% Read More
Wednesday, 31 January, 2024
The RBA should be cutting rates next week We really should get a rate cut next week based on the new inflation figures, which highlight the folly of the Melbourne Cup day hike. Terry McCrann January 31, 2024 – 3:16PM https://www.heraldsun.com.au/business/terry-mccrann/the-rba-should-be-cutting-rates-next-week/news-story/ceb6ae2de8019967cfba01c44d62973e Oh dear. The Reserve Bank hiked on Melbourne Cup Day in November thinking inflation for the December quarter was going to be 1.1 per cent. The ABS now tells us that It was barely […] Read More
Wednesday, 17 January, 2024
{EU} 9 days to run RXG4 – Fri next week expiry Upside broken call flies we recco’d cheapening up on the move lower, 136.5 strike still In the mix as a lower bound target rxg4 136.5/138/139 9 tix (broken 500 in your favour) 10 8.4%d but two lower strikes also look attractive 136/137/137.5 is 11 (50 in your favour on rally 9%d 136/137.5/138.5 is 13 150 on the mid strike and broken 50 in your […] Read More
Wednesday, 13 December, 2023
Fed Holds Rates Steady and Sees Cuts Next Year Officials don’t rule out further hikes while penciling in three rate cuts in 2024 By Nick Timiraos Dec. 13, 2023 2:02 pm ET {https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/fed-holds-rates-steady-and-sees-cuts-next-year-4d554e9f} WASHINGTON—The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady and signaled inflation had improved more rapidly than anticipated, opening the door to rate cuts next year. Most officials penciled in three interest rate cuts for 2024 in projections released after their two-day meeting on […] Read More
Friday, 08 December, 2023
BOJ Sources – Softening consumption may delay BOJ’s exit from easy policy https://www.channelnewsasia.com/business/softening-consumption-may-delay-bojs-exit-easy-policy-3975161 Source: Reuters TOKYO : Recent weakness in consumption has emerged as a fresh source of concern for Bank of Japan policymakers who are eyeing an exit from negative interest rates, three sources familiar with its thinking said, suggesting market expectations of an imminent rate hike may be over-blown. The yen and Japanese bond yields have jumped on market expectations of […] Read More
Wednesday, 22 November, 2023
Ashley Joye (ARCHR LLP ) Subject: FW: (BN) Australia’s Inflation Test Is More ‘Homegrown,’ RBA Chief Says *AUSTRALIA CENTRAL BANK GOVERNOR BULLOCK COMMENTS IN SPEECH TEXT *BULLOCK: `I AM 100% BEHIND’ CHANGES RECOMMENDED BY RBA REVIEW *BULLOCK: RBA STILL SEEKING TO TREAD `NARROW PATH’ ON POLICY *BULLOCK: RBA AIMS TO SLOW DEMAND GROWTH TO BRING DOWN INFLATION *BULLOCK: MORE SUBSTANTIAL TIGHTENING IS RIGHT POLICY RESPONSE *BULLOCK: INFLATION CHALLENGE NOW MORE HOMEGROWN, DEMAND-DRIVEN Australia’s […] Read More
Wednesday, 22 November, 2023
{US} Roll Update – 30th Nov is first notice All rolls at/close to their lows, makes decent rolling for shorts US Ultra Long -29.5/-29.25 at the lows, chunky roll yesterday 19% complete We are neutral the WN calendar spread 100:98.24 {WNWN Comdty gip10} 30yr -01.75/-01.5 also at its recent lows 24% complete We are slightly bullish the US roll 100:100 {usus Comdty gip10} 10yr -12.5/-12.25 tight range thus far not much movement 21% complete We […] Read More
Monday, 20 November, 2023
{US} Roll Update US Ultra Long 2% complete We are neutral the WN calendar spread 100:98.24 {WNWN Comdty gip10} 30yr 4% complete We are slightly bullish the US roll 100:100 {usus Comdty gip10} 10yr 3% complete We are slightly bullish the TY roll as positioning remains unchanged and the previous rolls richened in the last week of the roll month 100:99.6 {tyty Comdty gip10} Ultra 10yr 4% complete slightly bullish the UXY roll given the […] Read More
