{US} UBS now sees Fed starting to cut rates in June UBS has updated its predictions for when the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates, moving the expected timing from May to June. Consequently, the broker now projects a total reduction of 75 basis points (bps) in interest rates for 2024, a decrease from its earlier estimate of 100 bps. Read More
BARX on the UST ROLLS Asset manager positioning shifts and relative value are important for the upcoming Mar24 to Jun24 roll cycle, Andres Mok and Amrut Nashikkar note. The TY, US and WN all feature potential CTD switches, while the wild card in WN “will not be in effect in the afternoon of the March FOMC meeting.” Bearish TU: Asset manager net long positioning has been largely unchanged since last roll. Relative cheapening of the front CTD “imparts a […] Read More
THE AI’S HAVE IT: OpenAI have completed a tender offer deal with Thrive Capital, allowing employees to cash out, which values the company at $80bn+ (vs similar deal early last year which valued it at $29bn). Just the 40x sales then, pretty standard these days. In terms of hype vs reality, interesting to see another article (Sunday Times (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ai-mania-is-cooling-as-silicon-valley-plays-the-long-game-3pnr00ptd}) debating the actual corporate take-up (ie: monetisation) of the gargantuan AI spending going on. Follows on […] Read More
Strategic Shifts for Investors as Interest Rates Cycle nears end Anticipating a… ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ Newsletter on LinkedIn Fixed Income Market Review Market insights from the team at Jamieson Coote Bonds Jamieson Coote Bonds See what others are saying about this topic: Open on Linkedin Fixed Income Market Review – January 2024 Strategic Shifts for Investors as Interest Rates Cycle […] Read More
Fed’s Barr Says Regulators Eyeing CRE Risk, Downgrade More Banks Fed asking if lenders have done enough to brace for bad loans Central bank steps up pace of issuing findings and downgrades By Katanga Johnson (Bloomberg) — US regulators are “closely focused” on risks in commercial real estate loans, and have stepped up downgrades of lenders’ supervisory ratings amid new strains on their finances, according to the Federal Reserve’s chief bank watchdog. Supervisors are looking […] Read More
FED SPEAK: Chicago’s Goolsbee out saying inflation last mile won’t be hardest and that current policy is “quite restrictive” Restrictive enough for generational low in (official) unemployment, loosest financial conditions index in around 12months, and GDP annualised 3.3%???? First Fed comment of the day trying to lean back dovish… Going into Q&A session. Read More
Tech supports are pretty decent and despite the widespread selling mkt remains long in our view – Even with the recent unwinding so a decent rally might be a bit require tomorrow CPI to show improvement more of a holding pattern till then at these lower levels and towards 111 TY and 134 RX TY a break of 16+ opens up the 109-31+ support level 16 is 4.20% yield so should be a decent nut […] Read More
Lower borrowing costs risk ‘flare-up’ of inflation, warns ECB policymaker Isabel Schnabel says ‘last mile remains a concern’ in battle to bring inflation down to 2% https://www.ft.com/content/bdf3bb86-8a80-4bd5-b562-0c3c47f85f50 Martin Arnold in Frankfurt AN HOUR AGO Lower borrowing costs could reinvigorate the eurozone’s stagnant economy and cause inflation to “flare up again”, a senior European Central Bank official has warned. Isabel Schnabel, the most hawkish member of the ECB’s six-person executive board, told the Financial Times that […] Read More
– Euro zone consumers have trimmed their expectations for inflation over the next 12 months, a European Central Bank poll showed on Tuesday, in a sign the ECB’s credit-tightening efforts are having an impact. The Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) is used by policymakers to gauge whether the steepest streak of interest-rate hikes in the euro’s history has persuaded households that once runaway inflation will fall back to the ECB’s 2% inflation goal. The latest poll, […] Read More
Powell was really really easy to paraphrase and as explicit as his data dependencies have allowed for a while: “Strong growth, strong labour, falling inflation. Economy is in a good place and don’t see March as likely time for a cut”. Stocks hit day lows during those comments in the presser. Read More
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