Thursday, 25 September, 2025
https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/chris-joye-s-big-contrarian-call Chris Joye sees Trump driving a US boom, long bonds flashing amber, and urges investors to avoid illiquid risks as hybrids roll off. Christopher Joye believes the United States is on the verge of a powerful economic boom. In his view, Trump’s mix of tariffs, tax cuts, and deregulation is reshaping global trade, fuelling a manufacturing revival, and attracting trillions of dollars in AI-driven investment. Add lower interest rates and large-scale fiscal spending, and […] Read More
Monday, 22 September, 2025
Morgan Stanley: Recommends switching to Feb./March ECB flattener from Oct./Dec. given recent communication from policymakers raises the risk of delays in the timing of the next cuts; the 2026 gap is pricing a tad more easing than the 2025, but the ECB posture is too sticky to give comfort that the market will price a cut this year, and risk-reward favors going a bit further out Goldman Sachs: Maintains year-end OAT-bund spread target at 70bps […] Read More
Thursday, 18 September, 2025
{gb} BOE: VIEW CHANGE: JP Morgan push back next cut to February from November * JP Morgan has pushed back its expectation of the next cut to February although notes that “a December cut is plausible”. * JPM “see February as more likely assuming expected wage and price setting move favourably around the turn of the year.” * It notes that the call change is due to “a reduction in dovish dissent, reduced growth concerns, […] Read More
Wednesday, 17 September, 2025
PMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon tells reporters he discussed the Fed and economic growth during a meeting with Republican senators in Washington. “The Fed should be independent. I heard the President say the Fed should be independent so I’m not that concerned about it,” he also says Read More
Thursday, 11 September, 2025
Within the CPI data, one point of interest is in the FOOD prices – normally stripped out owing to volatility… BUT… Domestically Produced Farm Food +2.4% (vs July +0.4%, May +0.2%) Surge in the cost of produce coming at a time when farmers are increasingly reporting of difficulties in hiring workers to pick fruit and veg etc, a symptom of the new immigration policies. Higher costs to entice workers – at least until an automation/robotic […] Read More
Friday, 05 September, 2025
GS (Hatzius): We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 60k in August. On the positive side, big data indicators indicated a sequentially firmer—albeit still soft—pace of private sector job growth. On the negative side, we expect unchanged government payrolls, reflecting a 20k decline in federal government payrolls and unchanged state and local government payrolls. Additionally, August payrolls have exhibited a consistent negative bias in initial prints over the last decade. – We estimate that the unemployment rate […] Read More
Tuesday, 02 September, 2025
{eu} ECONOSTREAM – A new ECB exclusive just out from Econostream News. The gist of the story is: ECB’s Šimkus Hints at December Rate Cut, Says Santa May Come “With Scissors” – Šimkus: “Additional negative information might lead us to discuss a cut again in October” – Šimkus: “More true than not” that another cut is coming and it is just a matter of timing – Šimkus: “Many forces now at work that point to […] Read More
Tuesday, 02 September, 2025
GOING OFF THE RESERVE: The dollar is down to 42% of global reserves, as Gold’s share of global international reserves rose 3 percentage points in Q1 2025, to 24%, the highest in 30 years. Read More
Monday, 01 September, 2025
*BRAZIL CALLS VIRTUAL BRICS MEETING SEPT. 8 TO TALK US TARIFFS – The Brazilian president wants to discuss trade tariffs imposed by the US government and rally support for multilateralism among fellow heads of major emerging market nations. coming on the back of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation meeting in China last weekend. Read More
Thursday, 14 August, 2025
By Nick Timiraos (Wall Street Journal) — San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly pushed back against the need for an interest-rate cut of a half percentage point, or 50 basis points, at the Federal Reserve’s September meeting. “Fifty sounds, to me, like we see an urgent-I’m worried it would send off an urgency signal that I don’t feel about the strength of the labor market,” Daly said in an interview Wednesday. “I just don’t see […] Read More
