PMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon tells reporters he discussed the Fed and economic growth during a meeting with Republican senators in Washington. “The Fed should be independent. I heard the President say the Fed should be independent so I’m not that concerned about it,” he also says Read More
Within the CPI data, one point of interest is in the FOOD prices – normally stripped out owing to volatility… BUT… Domestically Produced Farm Food +2.4% (vs July +0.4%, May +0.2%) Surge in the cost of produce coming at a time when farmers are increasingly reporting of difficulties in hiring workers to pick fruit and veg etc, a symptom of the new immigration policies. Higher costs to entice workers – at least until an automation/robotic […] Read More
GS (Hatzius): We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 60k in August. On the positive side, big data indicators indicated a sequentially firmer—albeit still soft—pace of private sector job growth. On the negative side, we expect unchanged government payrolls, reflecting a 20k decline in federal government payrolls and unchanged state and local government payrolls. Additionally, August payrolls have exhibited a consistent negative bias in initial prints over the last decade. – We estimate that the unemployment rate […] Read More
{eu} ECONOSTREAM – A new ECB exclusive just out from Econostream News. The gist of the story is: ECB’s Šimkus Hints at December Rate Cut, Says Santa May Come “With Scissors” – Šimkus: “Additional negative information might lead us to discuss a cut again in October” – Šimkus: “More true than not” that another cut is coming and it is just a matter of timing – Šimkus: “Many forces now at work that point to […] Read More
GOING OFF THE RESERVE: The dollar is down to 42% of global reserves, as Gold’s share of global international reserves rose 3 percentage points in Q1 2025, to 24%, the highest in 30 years. Read More
*BRAZIL CALLS VIRTUAL BRICS MEETING SEPT. 8 TO TALK US TARIFFS – The Brazilian president wants to discuss trade tariffs imposed by the US government and rally support for multilateralism among fellow heads of major emerging market nations. coming on the back of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation meeting in China last weekend. Read More
By Nick Timiraos (Wall Street Journal) — San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly pushed back against the need for an interest-rate cut of a half percentage point, or 50 basis points, at the Federal Reserve’s September meeting. “Fifty sounds, to me, like we see an urgent-I’m worried it would send off an urgency signal that I don’t feel about the strength of the labor market,” Daly said in an interview Wednesday. “I just don’t see […] Read More
– VALUATION MATTERS: The S&P 500 is now trading at 3.2x sales, its highest valuation in history; the S&P 490 trades on 21x P/E (vs avg 15.8x), top 10 on 28.7x (vs avg 20.7x) – RETAIL vs QUANT ARMY: US retail holds 41% of US equities, fuelled by total margin debt at all tiem highs $1.1trl… CTA’s have a 6:1 sell-to-buy skew on rebal triggers. Read More
*FED GOVERNORS WALLER AND BOWMAN RELEASE STATEMENTS ON DISSENTS *BOWMAN: CUT WOULD PROVIDE HEDGE AGAINST FURTHER WEAKENING *BOWMAN: LABOR MARKET SHOWING INCREASING SIGNS OF FRAGILITY *WALLER: FED SHOULDN’T WAIT FOR LABOR MKT DETERIORATION TO CUT *FED’S WALLER SAYS FOMC SHOULD BE MOVING RATES CLOSER TO NEUTRAL *WALLER: TARIFFS WILL HAVE A ONE-OFF IMPACT ON PRICES *WALLER: PRIVATE-SECTOR HIRING NEAR ’STALL SPEED’ *FED’S BOWMAN SAYS GRADUAL CUTS APPROPRIATE WITH GROWTH SLOWING Read More
Since American businesses are bearing almost all of the cost of the president’s trade war, corporate profits could come in for a beating. The big news is that we are staring down the barrel of interest rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of Australia and the US Federal Reserve in August and September, which would be a boost to confidence. Following deputy governor Andrew Hauser’s comments on Thursday that the soft June-quarter inflation data was […] Read More
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