Thursday, 16 October, 2025
The Dutch pension reform looks set to cause seismic shifts across € swap curves amid structural long-end flows. With the latest data that became available for Q2 it is eyecatching that the market value of the hedges increased despite an increase in the 20y discount rate, while the overall moves have been relatively small. We have further refined our analysis to include changes in EUR/USD as a proxy for the FX forward valuation change in […] Read More
Thursday, 16 October, 2025
{FR} Voting times today – just as FYI 08:00 BST Debate starts Ballots around 10:30BST with 30mins per motion Politico article contacted the connoisseur of the Assembly last night and not enough votes to bring down the gov, the threshold being set @ 289 (range is 270/280 expected at the most) Read More
Monday, 13 October, 2025
EU DEFENCE: German government is discussing exempting interest costs for defense spending from the debt brake …. Would effectively give additional room to move in federal budget, est by double-digit billions in coming years. Read More
Friday, 10 October, 2025
{US} {CH} *TRUMP: I HAVE NOT SPOKEN TO CHINA’S XI *TRUMP: MANY COUNTERMEASURES UNDER CONSIDERATION ON CHINA *TRUMP: I WAS TO MEET XI IN TWO WEEKS, NOW SEEMS NO REASON TO DO *TRUMP: CHINA MADE A SINISTER MOVE WITH RARE EARTH CONTROLS *TRUMP: CHINESE LETTERS WERE ESPECIALLY INAPPROPRIATE *TRUMP: CALCULATING INCREASED TARIFFS ON CHINESE PRODUCTS *TRUMP: CHINA BECOMING VERY HOSTILE Read More
Wednesday, 08 October, 2025
Germany – Late factory holidays dampen car production German industrial production slumped by 4.3% in August. However, this is mainly due to a much lower level of car production, which was affected by the relatively late factory holidays. Although production is expected to be significantly higher again in September, today’s figures are a further indication that the German economy hardly grew at all in the third quarter. The next weak economic data from Germany: industrial […] Read More
Monday, 06 October, 2025
*GUINDOS: THERE’S NO PREDETERMINED ECB RATE PATH *GUINDOS: UNCERTAINTY LEVEL IS STILL VERY HIGH *GUINDOS: OUR RATES ARE APPROPRIATE *GUINDOS: OUR PROJECTIONS ARE MATERIALIZING *GUINDOS: RISKS FOR INFLATION OUTLOOK ARE BALANCED *GUINDOS: SERVICES INFLATION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY MODERATED *ECB VICE PRESIDENT GUINDOS SPEAKS IN MADRID *ECB’S GUINDOS: CONSUMPTION HAS GROWN LESS THAN EXPECTED Read More
Wednesday, 01 October, 2025
{US} Data is to be released/not released in the event of a shutdown. We will get ADP and ISM as they private data sets not GOVT 10/1 – To be released: MBA Mortgage Applications, ADP Employment Change, S&P Global Manu PMI, ISM Manufacturing – Not to be released: Construction Spending 10/2 – To be released: Challenger Job Cuts – Not to be released: Initial/Continuing Jobless Claims, Factory Orders, Durable Goods Orders 10/3 – To be […] Read More
Thursday, 25 September, 2025
https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/chris-joye-s-big-contrarian-call Chris Joye sees Trump driving a US boom, long bonds flashing amber, and urges investors to avoid illiquid risks as hybrids roll off. Christopher Joye believes the United States is on the verge of a powerful economic boom. In his view, Trump’s mix of tariffs, tax cuts, and deregulation is reshaping global trade, fuelling a manufacturing revival, and attracting trillions of dollars in AI-driven investment. Add lower interest rates and large-scale fiscal spending, and […] Read More
Monday, 22 September, 2025
Morgan Stanley: Recommends switching to Feb./March ECB flattener from Oct./Dec. given recent communication from policymakers raises the risk of delays in the timing of the next cuts; the 2026 gap is pricing a tad more easing than the 2025, but the ECB posture is too sticky to give comfort that the market will price a cut this year, and risk-reward favors going a bit further out Goldman Sachs: Maintains year-end OAT-bund spread target at 70bps […] Read More
Thursday, 18 September, 2025
{gb} BOE: VIEW CHANGE: JP Morgan push back next cut to February from November * JP Morgan has pushed back its expectation of the next cut to February although notes that “a December cut is plausible”. * JPM “see February as more likely assuming expected wage and price setting move favourably around the turn of the year.” * It notes that the call change is due to “a reduction in dovish dissent, reduced growth concerns, […] Read More
