Bank views on QRA JPM: -Assuming the TGA rises to $850bn by the end of this quarter and remains at that level at year-end, we project $1,087bn and $572bn of net marketable borrowing in the current quarter and next quarter, respectively. -Looking to the policy statement, we expect Treasury to announce no changes to nominal coupon auction sizes for the current quarter, given that it is well funded in the current fiscal year, and given […] Read More
Month End Extensions Extns/Month Rebalances . Large Gilt, US +0.05, EGB +0.04. Rebal towards bonds from equities {US} UST Aggregate Index: +0.05y This a is a non refunding month, with a duration extension +0.05y, below its July average over the past three years +0.07y, and below its 12-month +0.07y. Additions to the index this July are new 2y/3y/5y/7y bonds for an estimated total $241bn. Around ~$202bn ($178bn free float) amount outstanding of UST’s are set […] Read More
*TRUMP SPOKE TO LAWMAKERS TUESDAY ABOUT WHETHER TO OUST POWELL *TRUMP LIKELY TO FIRE POWELL SOON, WHITE HOUSE OFFICIAL SAYS *OFFICIAL CAUTIONS NO EXACT TIMELINE FOR DECISION ON FED CHAIR Read More
European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said there’d have to be a major downward shift in inflation to justify another reduction in borrowing costs. Schnabel said “the bar for another rate cut is very high” and that there would only be a case for another rate cut if inflation deviates from the target over the medium term. Schnabel said she sees no risk of a sustained undershooting of inflation over the medium term, […] Read More
ADP first negative print since Feb’21. “Though layoffs continue to be rare, a hesitancy to hire and a reluctance to replace departing workers led to job losses last month. Still, the slowdown in hiring has yet to disrupt pay growth.” “Job losses in professional and business services, and education and health services led the decline. Leisure and hospitality, and manufacturing showed gains.” “Year-over-year pay growth for job-stayers was little changed for June at 4.4 percent […] Read More
OFF RAMP? Some high-ranking Iranian diplomat reportedly said that the real priority of the Supreme Leader and Iran govt is survival… Iran is prepared to give up uranium enrichment to preserve the regime, but need a face-saving solution. “The army and the IRGC will inevitably lose control of the situation, and no one knows what might happen next. We do not want to repeat Saddam Hussein’s mistake. We are ready to negotiate,” added the diplomat, […] Read More
(Wall Street Journal) — Foreign investors have plenty of reasons to be wary of U.S. government debt at the moment. Now there is another: They can often receive better returns buying bonds in their own countries. The risk of a weaker U.S. dollar and the cost of protecting against that risk, are making American assets less attractive around the world. That comes at a bad time for the U.S. Treasury market, which is already contending […] Read More
TRUMP HITTING EUROPE NOW: The European Union, which was formed for the primary purpose of taking advantage of the United States on TRADE, has been very difficult to deal with. Their powerful Trade Barriers, Vat Taxes, ridiculous Corporate Penalties, Non-Monetary Trade Barriers, Monetary Manipulations, unfair and unjustified lawsuits against Americans Companies, and more, have led to a Trade Deficit with the U.S. of more than $250,000,000 a year, a number which is totally unacceptable. Our […] Read More
GERMAN flash Manf PMI 48.8 (in line) for 35th contraction, highest level since Aug’22. Services 47.2 (Est 49.5) for 2nd month of contraction. Composite “contraction came despite further growth in manufacturing production, which was boosted in part by a rise in new export orders” “manufacturing is doing better, as output has been climbing for three months in a row, and new orders are following suit.” “That upward trend likely reflects a mix of short-term factors […] Read More
© Copyright Archr LLP
