Wednesday, 02 July, 2025
ADP first negative print since Feb’21. “Though layoffs continue to be rare, a hesitancy to hire and a reluctance to replace departing workers led to job losses last month. Still, the slowdown in hiring has yet to disrupt pay growth.” “Job losses in professional and business services, and education and health services led the decline. Leisure and hospitality, and manufacturing showed gains.” “Year-over-year pay growth for job-stayers was little changed for June at 4.4 percent […] Read More
Tuesday, 24 June, 2025
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Monday, 16 June, 2025
OFF RAMP? Some high-ranking Iranian diplomat reportedly said that the real priority of the Supreme Leader and Iran govt is survival… Iran is prepared to give up uranium enrichment to preserve the regime, but need a face-saving solution. “The army and the IRGC will inevitably lose control of the situation, and no one knows what might happen next. We do not want to repeat Saddam Hussein’s mistake. We are ready to negotiate,” added the diplomat, […] Read More
Wednesday, 04 June, 2025
(Wall Street Journal) — Foreign investors have plenty of reasons to be wary of U.S. government debt at the moment. Now there is another: They can often receive better returns buying bonds in their own countries. The risk of a weaker U.S. dollar and the cost of protecting against that risk, are making American assets less attractive around the world. That comes at a bad time for the U.S. Treasury market, which is already contending […] Read More
Friday, 23 May, 2025
TRUMP HITTING EUROPE NOW: The European Union, which was formed for the primary purpose of taking advantage of the United States on TRADE, has been very difficult to deal with. Their powerful Trade Barriers, Vat Taxes, ridiculous Corporate Penalties, Non-Monetary Trade Barriers, Monetary Manipulations, unfair and unjustified lawsuits against Americans Companies, and more, have led to a Trade Deficit with the U.S. of more than $250,000,000 a year, a number which is totally unacceptable. Our […] Read More
Thursday, 22 May, 2025
GERMAN flash Manf PMI 48.8 (in line) for 35th contraction, highest level since Aug’22. Services 47.2 (Est 49.5) for 2nd month of contraction. Composite “contraction came despite further growth in manufacturing production, which was boosted in part by a rise in new export orders” “manufacturing is doing better, as output has been climbing for three months in a row, and new orders are following suit.” “That upward trend likely reflects a mix of short-term factors […] Read More
Monday, 19 May, 2025
BUY NOW, PAY NEVER: Klarna net loss widened to $99mln (vs 47mln in prior year) on LfL revs +15% … Consumer credit loss +17% YoY & funding costs +15% YoY. Read More
Tuesday, 13 May, 2025
SHIPPERS/CONTAINER PRICES: SCMP article flagging the “surge in rates” story. – “The 90-day truce is expected to trigger an immediate surge in demand for container shipping” – “The wave of demand will be even more intense due to the fact that many companies already have significant backlogs of goods ready to ship” – “US ports are likely to start feeling the effects of a surge in shipments three to six weeks from now – bringing […] Read More
Tuesday, 13 May, 2025
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent downplayed the possibility of a quick trade agreement with the European Union, saying the bloc suffers from a “collective action problem” that’s hampering negotiations. “I think the US and Europe may be a bit slower,” Bessent said when asked at a Saudi-US Investment Forum in Riyadh about progress on tariff talks. “My personal belief is Europe may have a collective action problem; that the Italians want something that’s different than […] Read More
Tuesday, 13 May, 2025
– May sentiment improved from April’s extreme bear position. – Recession fears peak, “soft-landing” again the most likely outcome (61% respondents, prior 37%) as “hard landing” abates (26% vs prior 49%) – Cash levels fell to 4.5% (prior 4.8%) Immediate take away is that consensus has shifted rapidly again and now basing decisions on greater stability and the ability of Trump’s team to land the economy without any issues. As a reminder 75% of the […] Read More
