Monday, 19 May, 2025

Archr News Update

BUY NOW, PAY NEVER: Klarna net loss widened to $99mln (vs 47mln in prior year) on LfL revs +15% … Consumer credit loss +17% YoY & funding costs +15% YoY. Read More

Tuesday, 13 May, 2025

SHIPPERS/CONTAINER PRICES:

SHIPPERS/CONTAINER PRICES: SCMP article flagging the “surge in rates” story. – “The 90-day truce is expected to trigger an immediate surge in demand for container shipping” – “The wave of demand will be even more intense due to the fact that many companies already have significant backlogs of goods ready to ship” – “US ports are likely to start feeling the effects of a surge in shipments three to six weeks from now – bringing […] Read More

Tuesday, 13 May, 2025

Bessent Says EU May Have a ‘Collective Action Problem’ on Trade

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent downplayed the possibility of a quick trade agreement with the European Union, saying the bloc suffers from a “collective action problem” that’s hampering negotiations. “I think the US and Europe may be a bit slower,” Bessent said when asked at a Saudi-US Investment Forum in Riyadh about progress on tariff talks. “My personal belief is Europe may have a collective action problem; that the Italians want something that’s different than […] Read More

Tuesday, 13 May, 2025

BofA Fund Manager Survey for May:

– May sentiment improved from April’s extreme bear position. – Recession fears peak, “soft-landing” again the most likely outcome (61% respondents, prior 37%) as “hard landing” abates (26% vs prior 49%) – Cash levels fell to 4.5% (prior 4.8%) Immediate take away is that consensus has shifted rapidly again and now basing decisions on greater stability and the ability of Trump’s team to land the economy without any issues. As a reminder 75% of the […] Read More

Friday, 02 May, 2025

BMO’s NFP Client survey: Bullish and Looking to Buy a Dip

The most relevant takeaway from this month’s pre-NFP client survey is that investors have a strong bias for lower rates in the near-term and are eager to buy a dip. 50% of respondents expect the next 15 bp in 10-year yields will be lower compared to the 42% average, matching last month’s 50% as the highest since July 2024. As an aside, this is the first time since summer 2008 that at least half of […] Read More

Tuesday, 25 March, 2025

Archr News Update

– Consumer confidence declined for a fourth consecutive month in March, falling below the relatively narrow range that had prevailed since 2022 – Views of current business conditions weakened to close to neutral. Consumers’ expectations were especially gloomy, with pessimism about future business conditions deepening and confidence about future employment prospects falling to a 12-year low. – Meanwhile, consumers’ optimism about future income—which had held up quite strongly in the past few months—largely vanished, suggesting […] Read More

Thursday, 13 March, 2025

Interesting on demand

CONSUMER: BofA Credit Card data showing DOGE cuts are weighing on spending in the DC area. However, the impact is localized for now. Notes: Travel-related spending has been weak in the BofA card data this year. Read More