Wednesday, 12 May, 2021
From: Chris Jarvis <chris.jarvis@archr.com> Sent: 12 May 2021 10:12To: Futures <futures@archr.com>Subject: ZEW as a contrarian indicator German ZEW economic sentiment significantly beat expectations yesterday at 84.4 vs 72. This kept an offer tone to bunds for much of the session and broke the dreaded 12.5yr trendline…. 😐 (that GS allude to below). Banks continue to reiterate bearish takes on Euro duration with the subsequent RM repositioning beginning to reverse the widening trend in RX/TY […] Read More
Thursday, 06 May, 2021
BOE Street View Barclays: Expect BoE to maintain policy at this meeting. Although the MPC will acknowledge the optimistic narrative, they will attempt to balance it with saying there is historical high uncertainty. Aim is to avoid the mkt pricing in hikes in 2022. Forecasts will include revision of Q1 GDP from -4.0% to -1.5% while fiscal stimulus is larger than originally projected. -BoA: Expect BoE to endorse mkt expectations of 2 hikes by the […] Read More
Friday, 07 May, 2021
(BFW) SocGen Recommends Tapering Trade in Long-Dated French Bonds ——————————————————————————-This message may contain confidential or privileged information. If you are notthe intended recipient, please advise us immediately and delete this message.The unauthorised use, disclosure, distribution and/or copying of this e-mail orany information it contains is prohibited.This information is not, and should not be construed as, a recommendation,solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or related financialproducts. This information does not constitute investment advice, does notconstitute a personal recommendation and has been prepared without regard tothe individual financial circumstances, needs or objectives of persons whoreceive it. SocGen Recommends Tapering Trade in Long-Dated French Bonds2021-05-07 08:45:49.355 GMT By John Ainger (Bloomberg) — Societe Generale are recommending investorsprepare for a flattening of the French yield curve at the verylong end to prepare for the ECB tapering its bond-buyingprogram, with a pre-announcement expected as soon as the summer.* Strategists recommend a flattener in the 30- to 50-yearsegment of the yield curve because the ECB […] Read More
Friday, 23 April, 2021
Street views post ECB Citi: If there are times when skipping a meeting (and a press conference) would make sense, then this was it. There was nothing new for the ECB to communicate, and the introductory statement is essentially a carbon copy of the one presented in March. Hopefully, 10 June will be different, with new forecasts and a likely decision about the pace of PEPP during 3Q-21. We continue to wait for an explanation […] Read More
Friday, 23 April, 2021
For the £/Gilt jockeys: Prior to this morning’s gilt open we get the revised Remit this morning at 7.30am London – RBC forecasts a £26bn reduction in gilt sales for the current fiscal year. – BoAML: , the risk of FY 2021-22 Gilt issuance reduction is considerable, perhaps somewhat underappreciated by the market and likely supportive of Gilts on asset swap (ASW). Conversely, BoA are not so worried about the Asset Purchase Facility (APF) pace […] Read More
Friday, 23 April, 2021
Month end extensions Gilts: +0.04 US Tsy: +0.08 EGBs: +0.17 Fourth consecutive month of gilt duration extension. Increased long-end issuance and syndication of the new 30y benchmark in the end of month are the main reasons. US extension is pretty typical for a non-refunding month. It compares with +0.13y last April (we had an alteration of the dropping rule for the bonds with maturity less than a year) Very strong duration extension for EGBs and […] Read More
Thursday, 22 April, 2021
From: Christopher Joye <info@coolabahcapital.com> Sent: 22 April 2021 07:43To: Ashley Joye <Ashley.Joye@archr.com>Subject: Should we worry about a spike in US inflation? Should we worry about a spike in US inflation? […] Read More
Thursday, 22 April, 2021
ECB Street Preview Citi: expect policy to be left unch; ECB is under far less market pressure than in March; any discussion on purchase pace is likely to be brief, with the ECB only due to review the decision quarterly; the ‘significant increase’ could last just one quarter if mkt conditions remain stable and vaccine progress continues; see ample space to keep a higher pace for longer Commerzbank: expect policy to be left unch; the […] Read More
Wednesday, 07 April, 2021
(BN) Fed Saw ‘Some Time’ Before Taper Conditions Met, Minutes Show ——————————————————————————-This message may contain confidential or privileged information. If you are notthe intended recipient, please advise us immediately and delete this message.The unauthorised use, disclosure, distribution and/or copying of this e-mail orany information it contains is prohibited.This information is not, and should not be construed as, a recommendation,solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or related financialproducts. This information does not constitute investment advice, does notconstitute a personal recommendation and has been prepared without regard tothe individual financial circumstances, needs or objectives of persons whoreceive it. Fed Saw ‘Some Time’ Before Taper Conditions Met, Minutes Show2021-04-07 18:07:35.45 GMT By Craig Torres (Bloomberg) — Federal Reserve officials saw it taking sometime before the conditions would be met for scaling back theirmassive monthly asset purchases when they met last month. “Participants noted that it would likely be some time untilsubstantial further progress toward the Committee’s maximum-employment and price-stability goals would be […] Read More
Thursday, 08 April, 2021
Jarvo’s At it :::: CHRIS JARVIS: A common theme that keeps popping up amongst bank strategy desks is comparing the recent move in US real yields to the taper tantrum. Consensus would argue that a large part of that move to higher reals is behind us – this seems to be neglecting some key pieces of information. A lot of the aforementioned analysis overlooks the main driver of higher US reals/lower breakevens during the 2013/4 […] Read More
